All Inflation articles – Page 9
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White papersGrowth, Inflation and Equity Markets
We anticipate a supportive U.S. growth and inflation environment in 2025, but equity investors may not benefit from it by simply tracking the S&P 500 Index.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2025
With inflation continuing to improve, the downward path of central bank rates remains on track, if uneven geographically given U.S. economic strength. Now, amid political turbulence, attention is shifting toward fiscal issues— spending and tax policy—that could affect issuance patterns and yields, particularly at the longer end of the curve. We are constructive on fixed income for 2025, seeing potential in shorter durations and in optimizing carry amid narrow credit spreads. At the same time, the unpredictability of political cycles could make for an eventful year that requires vigilance in guarding against risk.
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White papers2025 investment landscape: Q&A with our CIOs
The December CPI print delivered a much-needed downside surprise, relieving some of the market anxiety that the U.S. economy is at the beginning of a second inflation wave. Annual headline inflation picked up to 2.9%, but, more importantly, annual core CPI dipped to 3.2%, with the pace of monthly core inflation slowing for the first time since May last year. For the Fed, today’s print is certainly not enough to prompt a January cut. But, it does keep hopes alive that the Fed’s cutting cycle still has some room to run.
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White papersDecember CPI: Keeping rate cut hopes alive
The December CPI print delivered a much-needed downside surprise, relieving some of the market anxiety that the U.S. economy is at the beginning of a second inflation wave. Annual headline inflation picked up to 2.9%, but, more importantly, annual core CPI dipped to 3.2%, with the pace of monthly core inflation slowing for the first time since May last year. For the Fed, today’s print is certainly not enough to prompt a January cut. But, it does keep hopes alive that the Fed’s cutting cycle still has some room to run.
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White papersInvestment Outlook – Finding opportunities and tackling volatility
Already early into the new year, it is becoming clear that ‘looking for opportunities as markets shift’ and ‘dealing with volatility’ are the standout themes for 2025, as we had signalled in our Investment Outlook Opportunities in a volatile world.
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White papersThe Year Ahead for Bond Markets
Why we think 2025 presents a favorable backdrop for fixed income investors, despite the potential for rising volatility.
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White papers2025 Real Estate Outlook: Tipping Point
The post-COVID years have been characterized by dramatic shifts in economic conditions, capital markets and the geopolitical landscape. No two years have been quite the same, and uncertainty in the outlook for the economy in general, and commercial real estate in particular, has been historically elevated.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 2025
Although the uncertainty of the U.S. election is over, uncertainty regarding the prioritization of announced policies creates a broader range of possible outcomes in 2025. An anticipated deregulatory environment should be positive for overall growth, while tariffs could work against global economic activity and temporarily boost inflation pressures.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook: First Quarter 2025
We expect all major economies to continue to expand, with the US out front again, as well as positive momentum for business investment. The question for investors will be to what degree US outperformance will extend to the financial markets. Global headwinds are likely, especially in the trade channel in light of proposed tariffs and immigration policies, but our outlook remains generally positive.
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White papersBond yields on the rise
Bond yields started the year with strong upward moves, and reached close to the highs seen in April last year. This latest upward trend, which has been evident from September amid Trump’s election campaign and his eventual victory, has been partly driven by resilience in the US economy.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Preparing for Profound Policy-Driven Change
Political uncertainty and volatility create fertile ground for active investors to find companies that can successfully navigate a new era.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook 2025: Fertile Ground
Continued volatility, falling yields, and other expectations for the year ahead, plus seven strategies to take advantage.
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White papersQ4 2024 Investment Grade Private Credit Review & Outlook
Our current “Investment Grade Private Credit Review & Outlook” recaps 2024 in the corporate private placement, global infrastructure debt and private structured credit markets. We highlight origination and activity in each IG market and look ahead to 2025.
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White papersFinding opportunity on the horizon
Will deal activity return to more typical levels and what is the value proposition for middle market direct lending in 2025?
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White papersFed and ECB cut rates, BoJ and BOE on hold
“The Fed’s hawkish tone signals that the Central Bank is incorporating a more uncertain outlook. This calls for keeping a tactical approach to bond investing.”
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White papersGlobal Risks 2025: Turning Points?
As the dust from the U.S. election settles, the new year brings new challenges. Tariffs are likely to be the dominant theme early in 2025. Our base case is for the incoming Trump administration to impose substantial — albeit not universal — tariffs on most countries.
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White papersFed 2025 outlook: A fragile balancing act
The Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance reflects a challenging economic backdrop heading into 2025. Sticky inflation, resilient growth, and uncertainty around the incoming administration’s policies have constrained the Fed’s ability to ease aggressively. While our forecast anticipates three rate cuts next year, the path forward will depend heavily on inflation progress and labor market conditions.
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White papersEasier financial conditions lift expectations of a recovery in commercial real estate
The outlook for the commercial real estate market has improved in 2024. Economic growth ticked up in early 2024 and although projections have been adjusted downwards during the second half of the year, the faster than expected reduction in inflation has had a positive effect on investor interest. Global central banks began to unwind their monetary policy tightening, beginning with the ECB in June, the Bank of England in August, and the US Federal Reserve in September.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2024
Topic of the Month: The German economy has been lagging behind other Eurozone countries due to structural changes in its economic model and global trade. A huge investment effort would be needed to relaunch it. Economists recommend making up the lost ground within ten years by making massive infrastructure investments.
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - December 2024
Inflation is coming down much faster than the ECB expected only last September, with the headline measure (2.2%) now inching very close to its target. The latest 25bp cut and its revised forecast on 12 December, suggest that the ECB should get to its target by mid-2025.
