All Inflation articles – Page 9
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PodcastFixed Income Moves in 2025
As the United States embarks on a new administration, markets eagerly prepare for what is to come regarding domestic policy, international policy, tariffs, and geopolitics. But how will the Fixed Income asset class move through these new pathways? What factors are at play regarding fiscal and monetary policy? And how can investors prepare for the year ahead?
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White papersWhat does Trump 2.0 mean for Paris-aligned investing?
US President Donald Trump’s signal to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time is disappointing. The US reached peak greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2007 and has been on a declining path since. While a second Trump administration could be viewed as – and is likely to be – a setback for the global decarbonisation effort, we should remember that this is a four-year election cycle, and the incumbent is now restricted to a single term in the White House.
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White papersNotes From the Road: Investor Views at the Start of ‘25
We started this year by engaging in discussions with a large number of CIOs and allocators. In this short note, we reflect on key common messages that came out of those discussions, points of consensus and important open questions for the outlook.
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White papersNavigating the Tides of Political Transition
As a new administration takes the helm, we believe investors should stay focused on the economic metrics, not political theatrics.
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White papersTimberland - Resilience, opportunity amid economic uncertainty
The investment landscape as we enter 2025 remains colored by economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk, inflationary pressures, high interest rates, volatile capital markets, and the unknown future of global trade policy.
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White papersOutlook 2025 - Plan for growth, prepare for volatility
2025 is shaping up to be another good year for investor returns, with healthy global GDP growth likely to support earnings, and falling interest rates putting mild upward pressure on valuation multiples. Explore our key macroeconomic views and the asset class implications across infrastructure, real estate, equities, and credit markets for the year ahead.
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White papersTrump’s first 100 days: Five policies shaping markets in 2025
With an ambitious policy agenda, President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office will provide an early indication of his ability to sustain momentum in delivering on his promises. Wasting no time, Trump has unleashed a whirlwind of executive actions across a variety of policy focus areas, though many are likely to be challenged in court.
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White papersThe Fed’s dilemma
Recent inflation numbers are in line with a short pause in the path towards the Fed’s target, yet bond yields have moved sharply higher since the Fed’s big cut. Medium-term inflation expectations – including FOMC member expectations – have moved higher (see chart), but most of the increase in ten-year yields since the election reflects a rise in real rates.
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White papersInflation in focus ahead of Trump’s inauguration
“In the Trump 2.0 administration, the fiscal outlook and inflation expectations will be the main market themes to watch.”
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q1 2025
The fourth quarter ended with higher bond yields as the market reduced its expectations for future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
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White papersFixed income perspectives 1Q 2025: Finding opportunities in a dynamic global environment
Fixed income markets are navigating diverging central bank approaches, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investors. With elevated yields, robust credit fundamentals, and selective opportunities across asset classes, fixed income offers an attractive landscape heading into the new year.
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White papersTrump 2.0: Back to the Future?
By the end of this month, President Trump will enter the White House for his second term with an economic backdrop quite different from that of his first term. While the policies he advocates for are of a similar style this time around, the entirely different economic situation mean that those policies may have a different effect than they would have had in his first term.
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White papersGrowth, Inflation and Equity Markets
We anticipate a supportive U.S. growth and inflation environment in 2025, but equity investors may not benefit from it by simply tracking the S&P 500 Index.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2025
With inflation continuing to improve, the downward path of central bank rates remains on track, if uneven geographically given U.S. economic strength. Now, amid political turbulence, attention is shifting toward fiscal issues— spending and tax policy—that could affect issuance patterns and yields, particularly at the longer end of the curve. We are constructive on fixed income for 2025, seeing potential in shorter durations and in optimizing carry amid narrow credit spreads. At the same time, the unpredictability of political cycles could make for an eventful year that requires vigilance in guarding against risk.
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White papers2025 investment landscape: Q&A with our CIOs
The December CPI print delivered a much-needed downside surprise, relieving some of the market anxiety that the U.S. economy is at the beginning of a second inflation wave. Annual headline inflation picked up to 2.9%, but, more importantly, annual core CPI dipped to 3.2%, with the pace of monthly core inflation slowing for the first time since May last year. For the Fed, today’s print is certainly not enough to prompt a January cut. But, it does keep hopes alive that the Fed’s cutting cycle still has some room to run.
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White papersDecember CPI: Keeping rate cut hopes alive
The December CPI print delivered a much-needed downside surprise, relieving some of the market anxiety that the U.S. economy is at the beginning of a second inflation wave. Annual headline inflation picked up to 2.9%, but, more importantly, annual core CPI dipped to 3.2%, with the pace of monthly core inflation slowing for the first time since May last year. For the Fed, today’s print is certainly not enough to prompt a January cut. But, it does keep hopes alive that the Fed’s cutting cycle still has some room to run.
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White papersInvestment Outlook – Finding opportunities and tackling volatility
Already early into the new year, it is becoming clear that ‘looking for opportunities as markets shift’ and ‘dealing with volatility’ are the standout themes for 2025, as we had signalled in our Investment Outlook Opportunities in a volatile world.
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White papersThe Year Ahead for Bond Markets
Why we think 2025 presents a favorable backdrop for fixed income investors, despite the potential for rising volatility.
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White papers2025 Real Estate Outlook: Tipping Point
The post-COVID years have been characterized by dramatic shifts in economic conditions, capital markets and the geopolitical landscape. No two years have been quite the same, and uncertainty in the outlook for the economy in general, and commercial real estate in particular, has been historically elevated.
