All Inflation articles – Page 12
-
White papersThe Fed pivot arrives
“Inflation moving towards the Fed’s target is allowing the central bank to shift its focus to economic growth. This underscores the importance of bonds as a diversifier* in an overall agile stance.”
-
White papersU.S. Federal Reserve policy decision: securing a soft landing
The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of such large cuts with crises, today’s economic backdrop remains resilient. With recession risks receding and a favorable historical pattern during non-recessionary rate cutting periods, investors have reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s near-term outlook.
-
White papersReal Estate House View: Europe - Second half-year 2024
The sharp surge in inflation prompted central banks to implement the most aggressive monetary policy tightening for at least four decades.
-
White papersGlobal Market Perspectives Q3 2024: Losing some of the shine
Global growth has broadened beyond just the U.S. But the limited nature of the upturns implies U.S. dominance remains.
-
PodcastOuterblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Back to reality
This August financial markets went on a rollercoaster ride. Stock markets started the month with huge declines and soaring volatility, before recovering towards month end. What lessons should investors take away from this summer’s events, as the market jitters continue into September?
-
White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - September 2024
The rise in the July unemployment rate to 4.3% (latest reading in August is 4.2%) triggered a significant market concern about a possible weaker-than-expected US labour market, raising the risk of an impending recession. We do expect a significant slowdown of the US economy, but not a recession. We expect a significant deceleration in the next few quarters, consistent with a broader weakening of many labour market indicators.
-
Asset Manager NewsGARBE PYRAMID-MAP: Forecast Sees Rental Growth Outpace Inflation in Germany’s Top Markets
Germany’s logistics real estate market is showing first signs of recovery. For one thing, the transaction volume picked up some steam during the first half of 2024.
-
White papersInflation Quarterly Monitor
Central banks continue to tread carefully when it comes to monetary easing, expressing cautious optimism about inflation yet refusing to commit on the future path of policy rate decisions. Amidst falling inflation and slowing growth, the added complexity of political risk in the US, Europe and the UK has brought greater uncertainty. Even after the European Central Bank (ECB) acted as the first mover to cut policy rates in June, other central banks did not immediately follow in their June meetings.
-
White papersArticle Shopping around: The outlook for US retail
While remaining broadly cautious on the US retail sector, the credit team explain why they are focusing on names with turnaround stories where they see upside catalysts and better relative value.
-
White papersRate cuts: Now may be the time to extend duration
With the Fed likely to begin its rate cutting cycle in September, investors should consider extending duration now in high-quality fixed income to capture potential gains. Historically, bond yields drop ahead of Fed rate cuts, offering a window of opportunity to enhance returns without waiting for official policy shifts. Positioning in longer-duration assets now can provide income stability and potential price appreciation in a slowing economy.
-
White papersGenerating returns in uncertain regimes
As the last few years have aptly demonstrated, pandemics, wars and wildly fluctuating economic variables such as surging inflation and sweeping interest rate hikes have all contributed to heightened periods of uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, often at the expense of patient and unassuming long-term investors. Stuart Canning, Fund Manager in M&G’s Multi Asset Team, assesses the value of Dynamic Multi-Asset allocation in a world of shifting expectations.
-
White papersSeizing value in emerging market debt
Despite recent challenges, emerging market economies remain robust and are delivering positive growth. India is leading the charge, benefiting from secular demographic trends like a growing working-age population as well as resilient domestic demand. As China’s share of global growth declines, India is stepping in to fill the gap. More broadly, EM growth projections have been revised upward by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), benefiting from country-specific factors.
-
White papersCentral banks divergences on display
The Fed left interest rates unchanged in its latest policy meeting in July but acknowledged that price pressures are subsiding. This could encourage the Fed to reduce interest rates later this year. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) implemented its first rate cut since early 2020 on abating inflation in the UK. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised policy rates for the second time this year to control upward pressures on inflation.
-
White papersA Change in Leadership?
As Biden withdraws, we are seeing an historic rotation into small-cap stocks and a growing opinion-polling lead for Donald Trump—are the two things related? “What I write here on Friday could be out-of-date by the time you are reading it on Monday,” said Joe Amato, in last week’s commentary on the rise in political volatility.
-
White papersReal Estate Convictions: An Asset Manager’s View of the European Real Estate Markets
Despite the uncertainties, the global economy showed remarkable resilience in the first six months of 2024. However, growth remains uneven, and difficulties persist. At the same time, the economic upheavals of the past four years should gradually ease. Global growth forecasts currently stand at +2.6% for 2024, before a more dynamic recovery in 2025 (+2.8%).
-
White papersU.S. election: Policy and positioning
Heading into a contentious U.S. election season, investors need to avoid the noise and remain focused on the factors that will drive markets in the period ahead, including U.S. trade policy (particularly with China), geopolitics (particularly any impact on oil markets), and fiscal deficit management (given the CBO projection that the U.S. budget deficit is set to rise to 122.4% of GDP by 2034).
-
White papersHow long can the Central Banks’ divergence last
The pace of disinflation in most advanced economies is following a similar path, albeit with differences in sticky components. Central bank policy rates are unlikely to diverge significantly (our baseline), but this does not rule out the ECB and the BoE cutting rates faster than the Fed, especially given their weaker growth outlook. The impact of this scenario would be steeper yield curves in the Eurozone and the UK, but not substantially weaker exchange rates, as some fear. A bigger risk to European exchange rates stems from (unanticipated) energy price shocks rather than lower relative interest rates. We explore why.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2024
US mega caps significantly outperformed the rest of the US markets in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected economic activity, AI exuberance and superior earnings. Looking ahead, we see a potential for a rally-broadening, which will not be linear and is likely to have multiple legs.
-
White papersPositioning for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Calls from senior members of the Democratic party finally became too great this past weekend, with President Biden bowing out of the 2024 U.S. Presidential race. He will not be seeking a second term.
-
White papersElection 2024: Economics, policy and positioning for a soft landing
The S&P 500 enjoyed a solid start to the year, fueled by the Federal Reserve embracing optimism about inflation without sacrificing growth. During Q2, however, evidence of still sticky inflation has reduced the number of expected rate cuts, weighing on market sentiment and resulting in more modest equity gains.
