All Inflation articles – Page 12
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Global Investment Views - August 2023
”We remain sceptical on inflated valuations because the uptrend in risk assets is due to the laggards catching up rather than any meaningful improvement to earnings outlooks.”
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Passing the stress test
Results from the Bank of England’s (BoE) annual stress test indicate the UK’s largest banks should be resilient in the event of a severe stress scenario.
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Fearful markets brace for further hikes
The US Federal Reserve latest meeting minutes indicate further tightening likely following June pause.
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Macro insights: Resilient growth buoys markets, but risks elevated
Investors powered a broad rally in risk assets in the second quarter as recession concerns appeared to diminish.
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Fixed Income Outlook – Shifting narratives
Market narratives have been shifting rapidly. We have gone from speculation that rate hikes by US Federal Reserve had begun to ‘break’ the financial system, to imminent recession and imminent rate cuts, to a resilient US economy, to weak domestic demand and deflation in China, and slumping growth in the eurozone amid continued central bank policy tightening.
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Fixed Income Perspectives Q3 2023 outlook
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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The UK’s trifle with inflation
Brandywine Global: With the Bank of England still struggling to contain inflation, we believe market expectations for additional near-term rate hikes have left gilts attractively valued relative to other G10 countries.
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Learning the ropes - Unveiling the attractiveness of real estate investing
Real estate offers investors four key benefits. First, it brings diversification benefits to multi-asset portfolios. Real estate has low and sometimes even negative correlations of returns with other asset classes such as bonds and equities.
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The case for commercial real estate as part of a well-diversified portfolio
The investment landscape has been significantly impacted by the shift in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy beginning in March of 2022.
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Podcast
Emerging Opportunities in Emerging Markets Debt
The Emerging Markets sector has not been immune to today’s market challenges. Between the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, factors such as the cost of living and food inflation have caused an adverse impact on sovereign balance sheets.
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An accounting ‘big bang’? The implications for insurance investors from IFRS 9 and 17
Sustained inflation has triggered unprecedent monetary tightening and a surge in interest rates which in turn have revived volatility and provoked changes in market liquidity conditions.
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How pension schemes should view stagflation risks
There is an economic scenario that pension funds perhaps fear the most, but for which most are probably least prepared: Stagflation. Most schemes have a strategic asset allocation based on a relatively optimistic “goldilocks” scenario. Rightly so, you could argue, as stagflation’s heady combination of accelerating prices and meagre growth remains an economic rarity through history.
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Wait and see (redux)
Recent inflation and GDP data complicate the course of central bank policy.
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Higher for Longer, or Are Central Banks Overdoing It?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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Central Bank Watch: Not sufficiently restrictive just yet
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten (G10) nations plus two additional countries (China and South Korea).
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Infrastructure remains resilient despite macro challenges
Will infrastructure remain resilient as monetary policy tightens, interest rates rise and the war in Ukraine stretches into its second year?
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How focussing on long life infrastructure can help investors meet their goals
Infrastructure has long been known for producing solid, risk-adjusted yields over a significant timeframe.
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Opportunities lie beyond precarious path to growth
A central bank pause supports the case for bonds. Investors will have to assess the inflation path and the earnings outlook moving into 2024, in the search for opportunities in equities.
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Fixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2023
Central banks are finding it hard to finish the long journey toward inflation normalization, but we believe that policy rates are likely at or near their peaks—and could be maintained at elevated levels for some time. In an environment of slowing growth, restrictive monetary policy and rising idiosyncratic risk, we favor shorter durations, quality and a focus on security selection.
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White papers
The View From the Peak
Despite hawkish policymakers and very mixed economic data, the approaching plateau in rates brings more clarity and conviction to our fixed income views.