All Inflation articles – Page 16
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White papers
Never Stop Learning
Jon Baranko and Dan Morris, Allspring’s chief investment officers, describe their insights from the first half of 2023 and share their outlook for investing in the second half of the year.
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White papers
A Balancing Act: Fixed income playbook for 2H 2023
Many bond investors are looking for less volatility and more predictable returns. Five of Allspring’s fixed income leaders explain five key strategies they think bond investors should focus on going forward.
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Is China’s reopening lifting the global economic cycle?
The current macro situation is puzzling. The three main economic regions are exhibiting three very different trajectories: the US is decelerating, China is recovering and the Eurozone is showing remarkable resilience.
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2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay
”The many challenges that lie ahead will likely lead to high volatility in the global cycle, in terms of growth and inflation. To weather such an uncertain period a more dynamic asset allocation framework is needed.”
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White papers
Why R-star may rise, and its implications for rates and policy
R-star is the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is at full employment. If the central bank sets its policy rate below R-star, then its monetary policy position is accommodative. The Fed currently believes R-star is about 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the Fed’s calculation of 2% a decade ago.
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Blog
A Most Hawkish Hike by the ECB
The ECB’s June rate hike and its confirmation of a faster balance sheet reduction were in line with expectations. However, President Lagarde’s decidedly more hawkish tone was a surprise.
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White papers
Rethinking Fixed Income investing: Unorthodox portfolio construction in uncertain times
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income: We think the market is being overly optimistic in terms of their inflation expectations and are beginning to account for a change in the US Federal Reserve policy.
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Can We Refocus on Fundamentals Now?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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A hawkish hold as the best outcome for asset prices
The Fed decided to leave the federal funds target rate unchanged, a hawkish hold that provides the flexibility to hike again if needed—or adopt a more dovish outlook should growth and inflation data warrant that approach.
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White papers
Decoding success in Fixed Income: The power of security selection
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes there will be no Fed rate cuts this year but global central banks must continue to be vigilant, and expects a short, shallow recession in the United States and the euro area. Fixed Income Views presents the team’s third-quarter 2023 outlook.
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White papers
Schroders Capital Global Real Estate Lens June 2023: your go-to guide to global property markets
Our latest analysis highlights the key data and trends that matter to global real estate investors.
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“Investing at a Crossroads” Revisited
Nine months ago, we set out a playbook for the transition to the new investing environment—here’s why it still applies as the rates cycle peaks and inflation eases.
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White papers
Allocation views: Testing the upside
In this Allocation Views, the prospect of an early pivot toward lower interest rates is less likely than markets hope and could act as a drag on investor sentiment, according to our Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
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White papers
Stubbornly high inflation sends bond yields higher
UK inflation fell by less than forecast in April, Wednesday’s data revealed, prompting expectations of further interest rate hikes, and pushing bond yields to their highest levels since October.
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White papers
Is the Fed rate-hike pause still likely?
2023 was to be a relatively well telegraphed year, as opposed to 2022 which took investors by surprise. The idea was simple: in 2022, central banks had raised a wall of interest rates to protect our economies from a wave of inflation not seen since the 1970s. These rate hikes were to cause a slowdown in economic growth during 2023 without plunging the world into a deep recession – the ‘soft landing’ scenario.
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White papers
Inflation Quarterly Monitor
In March, the UK Debt Management Office (DMO) announced its borrowing remit for fiscal year 23/24, alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility’s updated forecasts for gross financing. A small downward revision of £3.3 billion was made to the remit in April, resulting in less short and long dated conventional gilts being raised via auctions but no change to inflation-linked gilts.
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White papers
The case for a higher-inflation regime
Financial markets are convinced headline inflation rates will fall sharply towards central bank targets over the next two years, with stable expectations in the medium to longer term.
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White papers
Is the long-term case for emerging market debt still intact?
2022 was a difficult year for fixed income in general, including emerging market debt, amid high inflation and aggressive rate hikes by central banks. While the global backdrop remains a headwind for emerging markets, relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals in the major EM countries, combined with high starting yields and undervalued exchange rates within local currency debt should provide a buffer to any further volatility.
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White papers
Investing in quality credit for net zero
An eventful start to 2023 saw sticky inflation and a banking crisis on the macro front, and further government action in climate policy. We review the landscape for corporate bond investors in the net-zero transition during an action-packed first quarter.
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White papers
2023 Global Outlook: Finding Value After The Great Reset
The past 18 months have been something of a wild ride for global real estate investment markets. As a relatively small part of the global financial landscape, the reality that has played out is that real estate values are vulnerable to major fluctuations in the global cost of capital.