Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - December 2023

Following 3.1% growth in 2023, we expect global growth to slow to 2.4% in 2024, well below the IMF’s expectations of 2.9% in 2024 and the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8%. The weaker performance of advanced economies is one of the main reasons for this divergence. Indeed, we expect them to decelerate from 1.5% this year to 0.7% in 2024, while the IMF forecasts advanced economy growth at 1.4% next year.

Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - December 2023

Macroeconomic Focus

2024 growth outlook: more cautious than the IMF

Our pessimistic view is driven by a mild recession in the United States (0.7%) and lacklustre growth in the Euro Area (0.3%). Meanwhile, in 2024 the IMF anticipates a soft-landing scenario in the United States (1.5%) and almost back-to-potential growth for the Euro Area (1.2%). Regarding the UK, we broadly share the IMF’s view, expecting 0.5% in 2024 compared to the IMF’s 0.6%. Our weaker outlook for the United States is also the main reason why we differ from Bloomberg consensus estimates.


Macroeconomic Focus
Emerging Markets
Macroeconomic snapshot
Central Bank Watch
Scenarios and risks
Amundi Investment Institute Models
Infographic - Markets in charts

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