Following 3.1% growth in 2023, we expect global growth to slow to 2.4% in 2024, well below the IMF’s expectations of 2.9% in 2024 and the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8%. The weaker performance of advanced economies is one of the main reasons for this divergence. Indeed, we expect them to decelerate from 1.5% this year to 0.7% in 2024, while the IMF forecasts advanced economy growth at 1.4% next year.
Macroeconomic Focus
2024 growth outlook: more cautious than the IMF
Our pessimistic view is driven by a mild recession in the United States (0.7%) and lacklustre growth in the Euro Area (0.3%). Meanwhile, in 2024 the IMF anticipates a soft-landing scenario in the United States (1.5%) and almost back-to-potential growth for the Euro Area (1.2%). Regarding the UK, we broadly share the IMF’s view, expecting 0.5% in 2024 compared to the IMF’s 0.6%. Our weaker outlook for the United States is also the main reason why we differ from Bloomberg consensus estimates.
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