All Inflation articles
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PodcastHow the AI Debt Supercycle Is Reshaping Credit Markets
AI-related bond issuance is surging, reshaping the opportunity set for fixed-income investors. In addition to robust U.S. growth, constrained inflation, and an attractive opportunities beyond the U.S., investors must also navigate greater tail risks, more complex financing structures, and rising political uncertainty around AI and energy use.
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White papersGeopolitical swings in the spotlight in Davos
The global equilibrium is evolving, particularly amid significant geopolitical shifts that are causing increased volatility in financial markets. President Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on eight NATO members — unless the United States were allowed to purchase Greenland from Denmark (a threat that was withdrawn a few days later) — initially caused a short market sell‑off, followed by a relief rally last week. Meanwhile, the European Parliament voted to suspend ratification of the EU‑US trade deal, which would otherwise have come into force on 7 February. This does not mean the deal is dead, but that Europe is adopting a ‘wait‑and‑see’ approach.
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White papersCould biodiversity become the next inflation hedge?
Real assets have moved back to the centre of institutional portfolios. After a decade in which financial holdings dominated asset allocation, investors are once again prioritising funds with physical underpinnings, long duration and the capacity to preserve real value through volatile market conditions.
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VideoGiven the uncertainty over inflation, protection matters
The economic outlook for 2026 appears to be in equilibrium. Inflation is close to the targets set by the main central banks, monetary policy normalising gradually, and economic growth supportive. But appearances can deceive. There is potential for higher inflation, particularly in the services sector.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 1Q 2026
After a generally stellar year for fixed income, 2026 looks more demanding, with fewer rate tailwinds and tight spreads putting a premium on security selection and global diversification, particularly as tail risk rises.
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White papersUS inflation down, but still above target
US CPI was up 2.7% YoY in December, unchanged from the previous month, meeting market expectations and significantly down from levels seen in early 2024. Core inflation — which excludes food and energy — rose 2.6%, slightly below expectations. It was weighed down by declines in used cars and trucks and by IT‑related goods.
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White papersTreasury yields reflect a curious equilibrium to start the year
As we begin the new year, actual and implied volatilities in the US Treasury market have fallen to four-year lows, returning to levels that were common before the pandemic. Of course, the last four years included a number of disruptors: the inflation surge to multi-decade highs; the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rapid tightening to suppress inflation; the Silicon Valley Bank crisis; President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement; and the eventual Fed easing in response to weakening job creation.
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White papersECB to stay on hold in early 2026
Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.0% in December, according to a preliminary estimate, hitting the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since August. We expect inflation to stay below this target both this year and next year, while real GDP growth should slow overall in 2026 despite the recent positive momentum. Growth forecasts were upgraded, while inflation still signals a deceleration due to sluggish private consumption, slowing wage growth, and further euro appreciation (which tends to make exports cheaper).
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VideoInvestment outlook – Handling the shifting investment landscape
What to expect for the world economy in 2026? How will the US Federal Reserve respond to a softer labour market but sticky inflation?
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White papers2026 Investment Outlook
Our latest Outlook report offers actionable insights into global markets
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White papersFed cuts, keeps a balanced tone
The Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced its target federal funds rate by 25bp at its December policy meeting. Chair Powell acknowledged that risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate — inflation and labour markets — remain. However, we believe some signals from the Fed suggest labour markets are weaker than current data indicates.
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White papers2026 Fixed income outlook: Structural shifts create strategic opportunities
The global fixed income landscape is becoming more differentiated and policy-driven. Fiscal policy is reshaping yield curves, while the narrowing gap between developed and emerging markets demands a fresh approach to credit assessment. Despite tight valuations in traditional credit, the macro environment remains constructive with improving growth, moderating inflation and healthy corporate balance sheets. Discover where we’re finding the most attractive risk-adjusted opportunities across securitized credit, municipals, leveraged finance and beyond.
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White papersREIT market perspectives December 2025
This outlook provides a broad assessment of listed real estate (REIT) market dynamics for December 2025, positioning REITs as a targeted real-estate exposure that can complement traditional equity and fixed-income allocations.
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White papersWheels in motion at the Fed
In addition to mulling interest rates, the Fed is looking out for complications stemming from the end of quantitative tapering.
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White papersU.S. Economy: All Noise and No Signal?
Although the government shutdown has officially ended, economic observers and market participants have had over 40 days with virtually no official economic statistics from the government. Moreover, government data will likely still be affected even after the government reopens due to interruptions in the data collection process. The shutdown itself is expected to distort the data, as a significant number of federal workers saw no paychecks, reduced spending and filed for unemployment benefits (that need to be repaid).
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White papers2026 European Outlook - Navigating The Winds of Change
With inflation now close to central banks’ target levels, financial markets are not expecting any further rate cuts in the Eurozone. Increasing levels of government debt, US trade policy uncertainty and remaining inflation concerns continue to weigh on the bond markets and limit the chances of government bond yields’ tightening.
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White papersLooking past the chaos: the time for European real estate debt
The global commercial real estate market has undergone a profound transformation since mid-2022, with rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty driving a significant repricing of assets—capital values have corrected by approximately 20–25% across Europe, creating one of the most attractive entry points for real estate debt investment in over a decade.
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White papersFixed income 2026 Outlook
Learn the views of our fixed income CIO and key portfolio managers. Where now for the yield curve?
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White papersFixed Income Outlook: Why flexibility will be key for fixed income investors in 2026
Despite no shortage of challenges and obstacles, returns across fixed income asset classes have been largely positive in 2025, with income levels a major contributing factor.
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White papersWhy flexibility will be key for fixed income in 2026
Despite no shortage of challenges and obstacles, returns across fixed income asset classes have been largely positive in 2025, with income levels a major contributing factor.
