All Inflation articles
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White papersModerating inflation keeping ECB on track
The eurozone economy is facing a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty. Changes in US foreign policy are forcing a re-think of Europe’s defence spending and Germany’s fiscal stance. The economic outlook is clouded by US trade policy, with the imposition of tariffs a significant shock to growth.
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White papersAsset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q 2025
“Much now depends on whether we see a more structured and predictable approach to policymaking in the U.S., especially on trade and the size and cost of government.”
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 2Q 2025
The Trump administration’s announced tariffs have introduced new turbulence to the markets as investors seek to assess the possible ramifications across economies and asset classes.
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White papersHarrison Street 2025 Europe Outlook
Europe’s Inflation Story: Significant Progress Has Been Made but Risks Remain
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White papersDiversification in times of uncertain markets
Over the past week, markets have experienced extreme uncertainty caused by US policy gyrations on tariffs. This uncertainty has started to weigh on US assets, including the dollar and US Treasuries. Despite the 90-day pause announced on 9 April, the US average tariff rate remains at a 100-year high, with rising US tariffs on China triggering retaliation from the latter.
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White papersThe Tale of Tariffs Round Two for the US Economy
How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?
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White papersTrump’s Tariffs: The Impact on Fixed Income
New tariffs could hamper U.S. economic growth and change market dynamics for the long term.
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PodcastOuterblue Talks Research - Seat belts fastened for the global economic rewire
The market roller coaster continues. After riding a wave of optimism in Europe in the wake of the German fiscal bazooka to increase defence spending, the confirmation of US tariffs sent markets suddenly plunging. What will be the economic impact of Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs?
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White papersTrump’s tariffs – A paradigm change
In the absence of major revisions, the latest US import tariffs are a stagflationary shock for the US economy, potentially derailing growth and raising recession risks. A major risk-off move is now underway as financial markets move to a completely new interpretation of ‘US exceptionalism’.
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White papersGold at a time of tariffs and trade war
“Gold prices should remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets, amid a threat of trade war, tariffs and their economic fallout.”
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White papersAvoiding the thorns
The bond market is a rational voice amid the panic caused by Trump’s tariffs.
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White papersSelf-fulfilling prophecy?
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
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White papersThe macro fallout from ‘Liberation Day’
The sweeping tariff hikes announced on “Liberation Day” have escalated fears of stagflation, pushing recession odds higher and rattling markets. With inflation likely to rise and GDP growth projected to drop by up to 2.4%, the economic strain could be the most significant since the 1930s. Still, investor sentiment may recover as attention shifts toward pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation.
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White papersLiberation Day: Market uncertainty, global growth concerns, and U.S. recession fears
The U.S. announced sweeping new tariffs—some exceeding 50%—shocking markets and sharply raising the risk of recession and stagflation. With inflation likely to rise and GDP growth to fall by an estimated 2.5%, investors are now eyeing potential fiscal offsets like tax cuts and deregulation. Until clarity emerges, risk assets may stay under pressure as global economies brace for the fallout.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook: Six Strategies to Thrive in Turbulent Times
Since mid-January, a new political regime in Washington has shaken the geopolitical landscape and global markets. In this volatile environment, bonds have performed well, resuming their traditional role as ballast against falling stock prices and attracting strong demand from investors.
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White papersThe direction of long term rates in an era of high debt
Real interest rates have been on a secular decline since the mid-1980s but have corrected sharply higher since the Covid pandemic, higher inflation and the end of central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE). Now, public debt is much higher and there are new demands for funding (e.g., for defence and net zero ambitions), which should argue for structurally higher long-term interest rates.
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White papers“Wait and Worry” or “Wait and See”?
U.S. consumers aren’t happy, but U.S. executives don’t share their gloom.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2025
Tariffs and trade policies can produce global growth volatility through direct economic effects and investment decisions, which could then translate into global financial market volatility. This could potentially add consumer stress and even impact consumers in the higher-income cohorts who have been less impacted by ongoing, above-target, inflation.
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White papersWill economic uncertainty knock the Fed off course?
The US Federal Reserve (Fed), once the primary driver of markets, has taken a back seat this year to government actions and politics. So far, it’s been a bumpy ride.
