All Inflation articles
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White papersInflation Quarterly Monitor
Central banks continue to tread carefully when it comes to monetary easing, expressing cautious optimism about inflation yet refusing to commit on the future path of policy rate decisions. Amidst falling inflation and slowing growth, the added complexity of political risk in the US, Europe and the UK has brought greater uncertainty. Even after the European Central Bank (ECB) acted as the first mover to cut policy rates in June, other central banks did not immediately follow in their June meetings.
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White papersArticle Shopping around: The outlook for US retail
While remaining broadly cautious on the US retail sector, the credit team explain why they are focusing on names with turnaround stories where they see upside catalysts and better relative value.
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White papersGenerating returns in uncertain regimes
As the last few years have aptly demonstrated, pandemics, wars and wildly fluctuating economic variables such as surging inflation and sweeping interest rate hikes have all contributed to heightened periods of uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, often at the expense of patient and unassuming long-term investors. Stuart Canning, Fund Manager in M&G’s Multi Asset Team, assesses the value of Dynamic Multi-Asset allocation in a world of shifting expectations.
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White papersSeizing value in emerging market debt
Despite recent challenges, emerging market economies remain robust and are delivering positive growth. India is leading the charge, benefiting from secular demographic trends like a growing working-age population as well as resilient domestic demand. As China’s share of global growth declines, India is stepping in to fill the gap. More broadly, EM growth projections have been revised upward by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), benefiting from country-specific factors.
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White papersCentral banks divergences on display
The Fed left interest rates unchanged in its latest policy meeting in July but acknowledged that price pressures are subsiding. This could encourage the Fed to reduce interest rates later this year. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) implemented its first rate cut since early 2020 on abating inflation in the UK. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised policy rates for the second time this year to control upward pressures on inflation.
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VideoTalking Markets – Fixed Income update July 2024
What are the prospects for Fixed Income from a macroeconomic perspective? In this edition of Talking Markets, Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income, discusses the impact the landslide win for Labour could have on the Fixed Income market, along what the different outcomes that may occur as a result of the US election.
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BlogFinely Balanced Decision Tips BoE to Cut
The Bank of England cut rates by 25 bps at its August policy meeting, but a series of aggressive rate reductions are likely off the table.
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White papersA Change in Leadership?
As Biden withdraws, we are seeing an historic rotation into small-cap stocks and a growing opinion-polling lead for Donald Trump—are the two things related? “What I write here on Friday could be out-of-date by the time you are reading it on Monday,” said Joe Amato, in last week’s commentary on the rise in political volatility.
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White papersReal Estate Convictions: An Asset Manager’s View of the European Real Estate Markets
Despite the uncertainties, the global economy showed remarkable resilience in the first six months of 2024. However, growth remains uneven, and difficulties persist. At the same time, the economic upheavals of the past four years should gradually ease. Global growth forecasts currently stand at +2.6% for 2024, before a more dynamic recovery in 2025 (+2.8%).
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White papersHow long can the Central Banks’ divergence last
The pace of disinflation in most advanced economies is following a similar path, albeit with differences in sticky components. Central bank policy rates are unlikely to diverge significantly (our baseline), but this does not rule out the ECB and the BoE cutting rates faster than the Fed, especially given their weaker growth outlook. The impact of this scenario would be steeper yield curves in the Eurozone and the UK, but not substantially weaker exchange rates, as some fear. A bigger risk to European exchange rates stems from (unanticipated) energy price shocks rather than lower relative interest rates. We explore why.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2024
US mega caps significantly outperformed the rest of the US markets in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected economic activity, AI exuberance and superior earnings. Looking ahead, we see a potential for a rally-broadening, which will not be linear and is likely to have multiple legs.
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White papersSigns of rotation emerge in equities
Slowing inflation in the US and Europe, and expectations of improving earnings could pave the way for a continuation of the broadening of the rally outside the US mega caps.
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White papersCentral banks—Will inflation stay, or will it go? Fixed Income Sector Views
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes an allocation to fixed income continues to make sense given the high yields and income provided by high-quality, short-maturity securities. Read more in the latest Sector Views.
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White papersA Preliminary Language for a Post-Global World
This book sets out what we see as the key issues facing asset owners in the macro environment, and shares the outlook for capital markets, strategic allocation and the future of the investment industry. It will also explore how the next ten years are likely to be very different from the 1980–2020 period.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q3 2024
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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VideoMid-year outlook video – Overweight equities; locking in today’s yields
Equities should see further good returns in the second half of 2024, justifying a continuation of our overweight stance, particularly in the US and for NASDAQ stocks. In Europe, small capitalisation stocks should benefit from the ongoing recovery fuelling consumer demand.
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White papersIG Credit: Finding Value in a More Stable Environment
Record-high yields and supportive fundamental and technical factors continue to present opportunities in IG credit amid stabilizing spreads. Slowly declining inflation and the U.S. economy’s ability to grow despite elevated real interest rates—the drivers of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current wait-and-see stance—have created a highly favorable environment for investment grade (IG) credit.
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White papersAre We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE
Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
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White papersU.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Questions
A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally, while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.
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White papersMid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
