All Inflation articles
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White papersInflation trend is falling
“With ongoing inflation swings, central banks will be increasingly data-dependent.”
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White papersOpportunities and Challenges of Trump 2.0
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor considers the implications of a second Trump administration for emerging markets.
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White papersElection Economics
A resounding victory sweeps President (and President-Elect) Trump back to the White House. The substantial-for-modern-times majority in the Senate along with the popular vote means that the second Trump administration has more of a mandate than the first one.
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White papersOutlook 2025-2027: Resilient recovery in a challenging environment
The real estate market is recovering resiliently and new opportunities are emerging for institutional investors. However, the investment climate remains challenging. This is the conclusion of Achmea Real Estate’s Outlook 2025 - 2027, the first part of which has just been published.
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PodcastPrivate Real Estate: From Uncertainty to Opportunity
Despite the challenges of a tough fundraising environment and fluctuating interest rates, private real estate is gaining traction as an attractive investment option amid economic uncertainties. But what makes private real estate a viable option? How does it help to hedge against inflation, and where do some of the unique opportunities lie?
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White papersTrump’s victory signals major policy shifts ahead
The magnitude of US President-elect Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday brings the strong likelihood he will have a mandate for his economic, market and foreign policy agenda. Winning the Electoral College and popular vote, as well as gaining Republican control of the Senate, means Trump’s key policy issues, such as tax cuts, higher tariffs and immigration curbs may come faster than expected — potentially in the early months of 2025.
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White papersThe Fed’s normalising of rates is not easing
Given that the US economy is healthy, we believe the market is overestimating what the Fed will do.
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White papersUS soft landing on track
“Robust consumption and government spending have supported US economic activity recently, but we see a mild deceleration in growth amid a rebalancing in US labour markets.”
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BlogAssessing Inflation Through Five Commodity Price Themes
Explore recent developments in commodity prices through the lens of five themes.
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White papersWhat Is the Opposite of Confirmation Bias?
Many investors say they anticipate a soft landing for the U.S., but market swings suggest they are seizing on any excuse to position against that thesis.
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White papersGlobal Outlook 2025
In 2025, we believe the core question to dominate economic discussions is where the unobservable natural rate (r*, the neutral rate of interest that supports full employment and constant inflation) lies and when central banks should stop cutting.
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BlogThe ECB Cuts as all Indicators Point Down
The ECB’s Governing Council remained true to its mantra of “data dependence” at its October policy meeting, choosing to cut the main policy rate by 25 bps to 3.25%.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q4 2024
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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White papersGlobal Market Perspectives, Q4 2024: Hard to be gloomy
Global policymakers have responded to weakening economic growth, raising the odds of a global soft landing.
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White papersAll eyes on inflation
“We believe the Federal Reserve will weigh the inflation numbers in the context of the weakening labour markets. We expect the Fed to continue to ease monetary policy.”
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White papersSeptember jobs report: Not as weak as once thought?
The September jobs report showed a 254,000 monthly job gain, blowing all estimates out of the water. Not only does it suggest that the U.S. labor market is on a stronger footing than most believed, but it also suggests that the Fed does not need to maintain such an aggressive pace of rate cuts. Market expectations for a 50bps cut in November have rightfully plunged, and a 25bps reduction is now the clear market consensus.
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White papersUS election: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the risk of repeal – Implications for investors
In November the US goes to the polls to decide who will be the next president – the Democrat incumbent Joe Biden or returning Republican nominee Donald Trump. Under Biden, in August 2022 the US introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a federal law which aims to, among other things, invest into domestic energy production while promoting clean energy. It represents the largest ever Congressional investment in the energy transition.
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White papersRate Expectations
Much has been written about the pace of likely interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We continue to expect a total of 75 bps by year end, with a first cut of 25 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17-18.
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White papersThe Fed pivot arrives
“Inflation moving towards the Fed’s target is allowing the central bank to shift its focus to economic growth. This underscores the importance of bonds as a diversifier* in an overall agile stance.”
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White papersU.S. Federal Reserve policy decision: securing a soft landing
The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of such large cuts with crises, today’s economic backdrop remains resilient. With recession risks receding and a favorable historical pattern during non-recessionary rate cutting periods, investors have reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s near-term outlook.
