All Inflation articles
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White papers“Wait and Worry” or “Wait and See”?
U.S. consumers aren’t happy, but U.S. executives don’t share their gloom.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2025
Tariffs and trade policies can produce global growth volatility through direct economic effects and investment decisions, which could then translate into global financial market volatility. This could potentially add consumer stress and even impact consumers in the higher-income cohorts who have been less impacted by ongoing, above-target, inflation.
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White papersA Return to Uncertainty
We believe that even though 2025 is off to a rough start, firms and consumers will continue to adapt, and growth will stabilize over the year. Many of the negative impacts of lower activity in the beginning of the year (weaker consumer spending, weaker consumer confidence and high imports to front-run tariffs) are idiosyncratic and have the potential to be offset in subsequent quarters, resulting in overall growth that is healthy, albeit weaker than 2024.
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White papersGoing Global in Investment Grade Credit
Investment grade credit yields are attractive even though spreads are tight, and a global approach can add another layer of opportunity.
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White papersMr. Trump Goes to Washington
The new U.S. administration has promised many pro-growth policies, but can those ambitions survive the disruptive measures of its early months?
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White papersFebruary CPI report: Not yet in the clear
The February CPI print was lower than expected, with the monthly increase in both headline and core CPI the smallest since late 2024, bringing annual numbers down to 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. The inflation report will likely deliver a temporary reprieve for markets that have been recently focused on increased stagflation risks.
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White papersA Higher Inflation Future and the Need for Real Assets
The risk of higher equilibrium inflation is a key marker of the notion that investors face a new regime. Recent policy announcements have lent more weight to the idea that the path of inflation might be upward. In this note we focus on the disparate forces that imply a higher long-term level of inflation.
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White papersMarch ECB meeting: Data dependence in a world of uncertainty
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rates today for the sixth time in this cycle, marking its fifth straight cut. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility were each lowered by 25 basis points to 2.65%, 2.90%, and 2.50%, respectively.
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White papersWatch the US dollar and Treasury yields to understand the potential effects of tariffs
Move beyond the headline noise to assess the investment implications
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - March 2025
In February, the markets have shown that love is in the air: despite new tariff announcements, inflation risks, and the DeepSeek shakeup, positive market sentiment continues to prevail.
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White papersBond markets in focus amid growth concerns
“With tariff uncertainty affecting market expectations and consumer confidence, bonds are back as a key diversification* engine for global investors.”
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White papersReturn of the Sovereigns
With central banks poised for rate cuts, and fiscal sustainability sometimes called into question, where should fixed income investors be looking now? We explore the return of sovereigns, IG and HY credit as well as the evolving opportunities in EM. Join us as we breakdown the opportunities, risks and strategies.
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White papersO’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha Monthly Letter: Exploring the impacts of demographic changes
With the prospect of continued higher rates, encompassing a key debate within the market, we see the topic of demographics worth exploring for this month’s letter. For years, a common narrative around demographics has been driven by the experience in Japan – that an aging population is deflationary and longer life expectancies lead to greater savings for retirement and push down the equilibrium interest rate.
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White papersShared BRICS money: basket currency or basket case?
There has been speculation that a desire to avoid using the US dollar might encourage the BRICS nations to adopt a gold-backed currency. But there are several questions to ask about such a proposal.
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White papersA Growth Mindset
For more than two years, inflation news was the prime mover of market prices; we think last week confirmed that a new dynamic is in play.
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VideoThe state of fixed income in 2025
Michael Goosay - Chief Investment Officer, Global Fixed Income
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White papersEMEA Investment grade examined – H1 2025
As inflation cooled, central banks transitioned from rate rises to a rate cutting cycle, monetary policies loosened and growth gradually slowed. Where do we see things going from here?
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White papersUS inflation surprises on the upside
“With persistent inflation and a resilient economy in the US, the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates.”
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White papersThe Tariff Man Cometh…and Go-eth?
Are these levies just a negotiating tool, or an unorthodox revenue-raising scheme? The answer could determine how seriously investors should view them.
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White papersFixed Income prepares for a shiny new year
Bonds finished 2024 with positive returns, and we believe fixed income assets can continue to shine. Solid economic growth, sticky inflation and a slow pace of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts should keep shorter-term yields elevated. And relatively stable longer term rates mean higher yields can help build portfolio income and return potential. In this environment, we like well-diversified multisector and core plus bond strategies in particular.
