All Inflation articles
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White papersFed rate hike: Three views on what’s next
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point this month marks a significant shift in monetary policy as the central bank seeks to dampen war-induced inflationary pressures. Although it is the first time the Fed has hiked rates since July 2023, in some respects it represents a return to normal after many years of artificially low borrowing costs.
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White papersThe ECB raises policy rates
“The ECB opens a period of central bank meetings. The balance is shifting further towards the risk that inflation proves more persistent than expected, given the recent rise in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions.”
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White papersBond yields on the rise again
“Bond markets are under pressure now, but as yields rise, opportunities for investors to benefit from higher income are opening.”
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White papersWhat higher interest rates could mean for stocks and bonds
Bonds have been anything but boring this summer. With US Treasury yields climbing amid rising national debt, elevated inflation and massive AI-related investments, some investors are asking whether recent volatility signals a looming crisis or a broader shift to a world of higher interest rates.
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White papersFrance’s fiscal policy in focus
We expect France’s GDP to grow by 0.6% in 2026 and around 1.0% in 2027, in line with Eurozone growth. While higher inflation and elevated policy uncertainty, both domestic and external, are likely to weigh on demand in 2026, the economy should retain some underlying resilience, helped by a gradual recovery in private domestic demand, particularly household consumption and business investment moving into 2027.
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WebinarGoing the distance: market perspectives beyond summer
As we head into the final stretch of 2026, critical questions are reshaping investor strategy. While equity and fixed income volatility has remained contained, the real story lies elsewhere: the evolving Middle East situation, the trajectory of inflation and central bank policy divergence, the implications of the US midterm elections and the perspective of the AI capex cycle.
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PodcastSustainable farming can offer portfolio diversification and inflation protection
The need to invest in sustainable farming is becoming increasingly urgent. Burgeoning populations, more demand for high protein food as middle-class wealth expands and an increasing squeeze on arable land due to climate change and urbanisation are all pressurising agricultural production.
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White papersCapital Market Line: From Inflation Shock to Productivity Shock
Markets have navigated a series of inflationary shocks over the past few years, including Covid, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, including most recently the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While disagreements linger between the U.S. and Iran, neither has shown the appetite for full-fledged war.
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White papersStrong US earnings growth continues
“The ongoing US earnings season confirms a broadening of earnings growth across sectors, although scrutiny remains on data and quality of guidance beneath the headline numbers. Overall, this reinforces the importance of diversification and selectivity”
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White papersWhat a 5% 10-year Treasury means for commercial real estate
As the 10-year Treasury pushes toward 4.75% for the first time since January 2025, investors are asking what it means for U.S. commercial real estate (CRE). Importantly, the reason rates are rising matters as much as the level. What began as an orderly move in real rates and term premium is now giving way to something less benign - rising inflation expectations and a bond market that’s testing the Fed’s resolve. A 10-year yield near 5% raises the bar for CRE, but it sharpens our thesis rather than breaks it: net operating income (NOI) growth and selectivity are what will likely separate winners from the rest.
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White papersFour for fixed income: The themes driving bond markets
Many investors entered 2026 expecting slower growth, cooling inflation, and eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts. Instead, markets have faced a more complicated reality, with geopolitical tensions rising, oil prices moving higher, rates backing up, and investors pricing a meaningful probability of additional Fed tightening. Yet the U.S. economy remains resilient, inflation has generally improved, and productivity gains driven by technology and AI continue to support growth.
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White papersFed on hold, markets in action
“As the Fed moves to reduce policy guidance, uncertainty over the short-rate path is likely to rise, creating additional volatility along the yield curve”
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White papersThe New Role of Geopolitical Risk in Bond Investing
Interest rate volatility is reshaping bond markets. We examine why geopolitical risks have become increasingly linked to bond market volatility since 2025, and discuss the implications for the term premium, fixed income positioning and investment opportunities.
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VideoHow could inflation and AI shape fixed income markets?
Inflation remains an important consideration for fixed income investors, although the outlook may differ over the short and longer term. Supply pressures and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could add to inflation in the near term, while productivity gains from AI could contribute to a more disinflationary environment over time.
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White papersFarmland beyond the narrative - PREA article: Resilience, risks, and repositioning across market cycles
Since the early 1990s, US farmland has established itself as a durable and stable component of real asset portfolios, demonstrating resilience through multiple macroeconomic shocks. Its long-term appeal is rooted in capital preservation, relatively steady returns, and reliable cash flows, supported by essential-goods demand, constrained supply, and strong linkages to inflation.
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White papersFixed Income Outlook 3Q 2026: Looking to the Data When Visibility Is Low
Diverging economic growth and less visibility on policy are creating opportunities in fixed income rates and credit.
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White papersEmerging Market Debt: Established resilience
This article is part of the Fixed Income Quarterly Outlook for Q3 2026, covering Emerging Market Debt, Euro Credit, Euro High Yield, Sovereign Bonds and US Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
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White papersGlobal Sovereign Bonds: Watching the new Fed Chair
This article is part of the Fixed Income Quarterly Outlook for Q3 2026, covering Emerging Market Debt, Euro Credit, Euro High Yield, Sovereign Bonds and US Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
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White papersSolving for 2026: Mid-Year Scorecard
At the halfway point of 2026, Neuberger’s investment leaders review the five key themes we identified heading into the year: what we got right, what we got wrong, and what to watch for going forward.
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White papersTensions flare amid fragile ceasefire
Tensions in the Middle East have resurfaced, underscoring the “fragile” nature of the recent de-escalation. The latest round of attacks may be tied to Iran’s effort to preserve its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump may become more willing to escalate tensions while oil prices remain subdued. Still, both sides have reasons to remain at the negotiation table, as the US approaches midterm elections and Iran would benefit from economic relief.
