All Inflation articles
-
White papersWill markets remain resilient with yields above 5%?
Ten-year Treasury yields moved above 5% on 15 September, just ahead of the Fed hike, and have stayed there, reaching 5.3% on 5 October. That is the highest level in almost 25 years. Yet equity markets have remained resilient, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq setting new highs. So, the key question is not just where yields go next, but what is driving them and how they will impact markets.
-
White papersLights and shadows from the IMF
In the US, AI is likely to have a sequential impact on inflation. Strong demand will push inflation higher first, while productivity gains should become more disinflationary over time. Together with geopolitical and energy pressures, this is likely to keep inflation above central bank target.
-
White papersStrategy Outlook: Unified Global Alternatives - Hedge Funds Fourth Quarter 2026
As we enter Q4, AI continues to drive economic growth, market leadership and political debate. While productivity gains from AI are widely anticipated, their scale and timing remain difficult to quantify. The near-term impact on labor appears broadly positive for now, with skilled engineers and IT developers in high demand as companies build infrastructure and integrate AI into their operations.
-
White papersFixed Income Outlook 4Q 2026: Walking the Line Between Rates and Inflation Risk
The fixed income environment has been particularly painful for investors in recent months, as long-term yields increased to multiyear highs amid geopolitical and economic turbulence. Slow progress on inflation, energy shocks and heavy issuance were among the headwinds, along with a hawkish turn by central banks.
-
White papersLong-term yields at high levels
Government bond yields across major developed economies have risen to levels not seen in years. The move has been accompanied by increased volatility, as markets have become more sensitive to macroeconomic data and policy expectations. US 10-year yields reached their highest level since 2002 before easing, as oil prices fell and following a well-received bond auction.
-
White papersWhat Higher Interest Rates Are Telling Insurance Investors
For insurance investors, bond yields play a defining role in long-term planning, with the effects of their levels and movements rippling across balance sheets. Liabilities may move inversely to asset values, and today’s investment decisions have implications far into the future. That makes bond yields critical variables for prudent insurance investors. There are also insights in the “why” behind higher rates.
-
PodcastInflation-linked bonds: protection in a more volatile inflation world
Geopolitics, energy security, changing supply chains, fiscal policy, climate investment and increased infrastructure and AI spending could all contribute to a structurally more volatile inflation environment.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2026
In September, global bond markets came under pressure amid inflation concerns and hawkish shifts by central banks, while equity markets remained relatively calm, supported by strong economic data and earnings, alongside renewed optimism around AI.
-
White papersAn Invidious Choice? Towards Bond Market Crisis or Yield Curve Control
The yields on long bonds have risen to multi-decade highs. Debt sustainability fears have festered for years but to no tangible effect—either on investment portfolios or political debate. The most likely route is that the “can is kicked” on both debates; after all, >2% real yields will be tempting to many investors.
-
White papersFixed-Income Outlook: Four Ways to Capitalize on Dispersion
Fixed-income investors are being paid more to take risk than they have been in years, but not all opportunities are created equal. Higher yield levels, heightened volatility and growing differences across countries, sectors, industries and issuers are expanding the opportunity set. Dispersion is the raw material from which active returns are generated. Below are four ways investors can capitalize on it.
-
White papersThe USD bear case faces a monetary-policy test
We entered 2026 expecting expensive valuations and Fed easing, alongside an administration increasingly focused on limiting the cost of financing a deteriorating fiscal position. Together, these conditions were expected to gradually normalise the USD.
-
White papersThe road ahead for central banks
In a low-trust world that is becoming increasingly predatory, investors should expect supply shocks to become a new norm and the distribution of economic gains to stay uneven. Another result of the global order fragmenting is the rise of fiercer competition between countries. However, this competition is no longer limited to trade, tech, industrial leadership or energy security; it is instead being shaped by a relentless search for capital at the public and private level.
-
White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q4 2026
Resilient growth, persistent inflation, evolving monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to shape markets heading into 2027. AI-related investment remains an important growth driver, while rate volatility may create opportunities for selective investors.
-
White papersOil shock; six months on, the EM debt bid remains strong
In April, we argued that emerging markets (EM) fixed income was better positioned to withstand the oil shock than it had been in 2022 and that we believed the asset class was poised for a strong rebound if de-escalation occurred within a relatively short time frame. De-escalation took longer than ...
-
White papersCommercial real estate under higher inflation and interest rates
Why the interaction between inflation and real rates matters more than either variable alone
-
PodcastReal Rates, Repriced Credit and the Case for a Short Fed Cycle
The Fed has turned hawkish, and the market is now pricing several more hikes. Our fixed income team isn’t convinced. Core U.S. inflation is still drifting lower, most of this year’s yield move has come from real rates rather than inflation expectations, and the disinflation case remains intact — all of which argues for a shorter path than consensus expects.
-
White papersThe Fed raises policy rates
“The Fed’s September hike was primarily an insurance and credibility measure. Significant geopolitical uncertainty and scrutiny from bond markets could influence its actions going forward.”
-
White papersFed rate hike: Three views on what’s next
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point this month marks a significant shift in monetary policy as the central bank seeks to dampen war-induced inflationary pressures. Although it is the first time the Fed has hiked rates since July 2023, in some respects it represents a return to normal after many years of artificially low borrowing costs.
-
White papersSeizing the euro fixed income opportunity with flexibility and diversification
Europe’s fixed income landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years and become a segment difficult to ignore within the global bond universe.
-
White papersThe ECB raises policy rates
“The ECB opens a period of central bank meetings. The balance is shifting further towards the risk that inflation proves more persistent than expected, given the recent rise in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions.”
