All Inflation articles
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White papers
Signs of rotation emerge in equities
Slowing inflation in the US and Europe, and expectations of improving earnings could pave the way for a continuation of the broadening of the rally outside the US mega caps.
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White papers
Central banks—Will inflation stay, or will it go? Fixed Income Sector Views
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes an allocation to fixed income continues to make sense given the high yields and income provided by high-quality, short-maturity securities. Read more in the latest Sector Views.
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White papers
A Preliminary Language for a Post-Global World
This book sets out what we see as the key issues facing asset owners in the macro environment, and shares the outlook for capital markets, strategic allocation and the future of the investment industry. It will also explore how the next ten years are likely to be very different from the 1980–2020 period.
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Video
Mid-year outlook video – Overweight equities; locking in today’s yields
Equities should see further good returns in the second half of 2024, justifying a continuation of our overweight stance, particularly in the US and for NASDAQ stocks. In Europe, small capitalisation stocks should benefit from the ongoing recovery fuelling consumer demand.
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White papers
IG Credit: Finding Value in a More Stable Environment
Record-high yields and supportive fundamental and technical factors continue to present opportunities in IG credit amid stabilizing spreads. Slowly declining inflation and the U.S. economy’s ability to grow despite elevated real interest rates—the drivers of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current wait-and-see stance—have created a highly favorable environment for investment grade (IG) credit.
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White papers
Are We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE
Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
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White papers
U.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Questions
A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally, while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.
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White papers
Mid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
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White papers
On My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
In this “On My Mind,” I want to focus on the US fiscal outlook, its relationship to inflation, and the implications for interest rates and bond yields. Let’s start with a snapshot of the US federal govern ment’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades. For the first half of this period, fiscal policy looked fairly prudent, and the deficit averaged slightly more than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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White papers
Central Bank Watch: A slow burn
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten (G10) nations plus two additional countries (China and South Korea).Each central bank is scored on three parameters: Inflation Outlook Perception, Quantitative Easing/Liquidity Management Programs, and Interest Rate Forward Guidance. Each parameter can be scored from a range with a minimum of -2 (dovish) and a maximum of +2 (hawkish).
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White papers
Fiber-to-the-home: Missed connections? i3 article on navigating the investment landscape
Fiber optic cables, originally developed in the 1950s to allow doctors to view the inside of a patient, are now essential infrastructure that everyone needs to access remote employment opportunities, as well as access to education, healthcare, entertainment and even socialization.
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White papers
Mid-year investment update – Navigating political turmoil
The US economy is still on a soft landing path, even if the speed and timing of the touchdown vary after each economic release. The most recent US inflation data show price rises slowing more quickly than in the first part of the year. The eurozone, by contrast, continues to see persistently higher inflation
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White papers
Making sense of infrastructure debt
The capital expenditure required to support anticipated growth in power demand while also reducing carbon emissions will necessitate significant amounts of debt financing. Don Dimitrievich explains the evolving landscape of opportunities in infrastructure debt.
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White papers
Higher for Longer: The CIOs’ Weigh In
While this year’s inflation and rates environment has disappointed many, we see it as a bump in the road that has created opportunity in several markets.Midway through 2024, it’s pretty clear what the story of the year has been so far: stickier inflation and higher rates for longer than many investors wanted or expected.
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White papers
Global Investment Views - July 2024
Inflation trends, central banks and geopolitics to drive markets
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White papers
Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2024
There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.
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Video
Midyear Equity Outlook Investing Beyond the Megacaps
Nelson Yu: If you told me at the beginning of the year that we were going to go from starting with six interest-rate cuts to now we’re hoping to get one, I would be shocked to say that the equity markets are up 15%.
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White papers
The Case For Resilient High Yield Private Credit
With inflation lingering and rates moving at a much slower pace than expected, the team at Infranity explains why BB-rated infrastructure debt is a particular sweet spot for investors seeking a safe haven in a changeable market.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – Europe, Edition May 2024: A new cycle begins
Inflation has not been beaten yet. We’ve come a long way from the highs of inflation and interest rates – and the ensuing capital value correction. A new cycle is in its infancy, but the effects of the last one still linger.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – Europe, Edition May 2024 A new cycle begins
We’ve come a long way from the highs of inflation and interest rates – and the ensuing capital value correction. A new cycle is in its infancy, but the effects of the last one still linger.