All Inflation articles
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White papersA Growth Mindset
For more than two years, inflation news was the prime mover of market prices; we think last week confirmed that a new dynamic is in play.
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White papersUS inflation surprises on the upside
“With persistent inflation and a resilient economy in the US, the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates.”
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White papersThe Tariff Man Cometh…and Go-eth?
Are these levies just a negotiating tool, or an unorthodox revenue-raising scheme? The answer could determine how seriously investors should view them.
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White papersFixed Income prepares for a shiny new year
Bonds finished 2024 with positive returns, and we believe fixed income assets can continue to shine. Solid economic growth, sticky inflation and a slow pace of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts should keep shorter-term yields elevated. And relatively stable longer term rates mean higher yields can help build portfolio income and return potential. In this environment, we like well-diversified multisector and core plus bond strategies in particular.
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White papersFixed income outlook update: the market comes out swinging
The year started with some sharp moves in fixed income, with developments in terms of inflation trends and labour market conditions. So, how does this align with our broader fixed income outlook for the year?
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White papersThe opening salvo in Trump trade war two
Markets were recently rattled by three executive orders announcing tariff increases on Mexico, Canada, and China, marking an opening salvo of President Donald Trump’s trade war. With Europe likely next in line, uncertainty remains high—despite a 30-day delay on tariffs for Mexico and Canada—fueling further market volatility.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - February 2025
Markets: a tug of war between inflation fears and optimism
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White papersFiscal expansion fears loom over debt markets
Ballooning public debt is forcing many countries to overhaul fiscal rules, which could have a significant impact on credit markets in the months ahead.
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White papersNavigating interest rate uncertainty on the bond market during a second Trump term
US bond rates are a significant risk driver for institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds who typically invest roughly 30% of their allocations into bonds and other fixed income classes. With Trump’s election win, we must navigate the potential impacts of his policies on the bond market. Given the contradictory nature of his suggested policies, we see the potential for a new level of interest rate uncertainty driven by a mix of inflationary and growth pressures causing increased volatility in the bond market.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2025: Ready for Trump 2.0?
Looking ahead to 2025, the macro environment, in theory, sets the stage for a friendly backdrop in EM, especially given continued disinflation, which should allow most major central banks to ease rates throughout the year. However, the incoming US administration poses several risks to EMs.
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White papersAre We Any Clearer About Trump 2.0?
Were 26 executive orders enough to convey the new administration’s direction and resolve the uncertainties in our outlook?
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White papersFixed Income: Be Prepared for Policy-Driven Volatility
In the wake of electoral shifts, policy changes could add to market turbulence, creating new risks but also opportunities.
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PodcastFixed Income Moves in 2025
As the United States embarks on a new administration, markets eagerly prepare for what is to come regarding domestic policy, international policy, tariffs, and geopolitics. But how will the Fixed Income asset class move through these new pathways? What factors are at play regarding fiscal and monetary policy? And how can investors prepare for the year ahead?
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White papersWhat does Trump 2.0 mean for Paris-aligned investing?
US President Donald Trump’s signal to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time is disappointing. The US reached peak greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2007 and has been on a declining path since. While a second Trump administration could be viewed as – and is likely to be – a setback for the global decarbonisation effort, we should remember that this is a four-year election cycle, and the incumbent is now restricted to a single term in the White House.
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White papersNavigating the Tides of Political Transition
As a new administration takes the helm, we believe investors should stay focused on the economic metrics, not political theatrics.
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White papersTimberland - Resilience, opportunity amid economic uncertainty
The investment landscape as we enter 2025 remains colored by economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk, inflationary pressures, high interest rates, volatile capital markets, and the unknown future of global trade policy.
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White papersOutlook 2025 - Plan for growth, prepare for volatility
2025 is shaping up to be another good year for investor returns, with healthy global GDP growth likely to support earnings, and falling interest rates putting mild upward pressure on valuation multiples. Explore our key macroeconomic views and the asset class implications across infrastructure, real estate, equities, and credit markets for the year ahead.
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White papersTrump’s first 100 days: Five policies shaping markets in 2025
With an ambitious policy agenda, President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office will provide an early indication of his ability to sustain momentum in delivering on his promises. Wasting no time, Trump has unleashed a whirlwind of executive actions across a variety of policy focus areas, though many are likely to be challenged in court.
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White papersThe Fed’s dilemma
Recent inflation numbers are in line with a short pause in the path towards the Fed’s target, yet bond yields have moved sharply higher since the Fed’s big cut. Medium-term inflation expectations – including FOMC member expectations – have moved higher (see chart), but most of the increase in ten-year yields since the election reflects a rise in real rates.
