All Inflation articles – Page 2
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White papersBoE stays on hold, all eyes on budget now
At its November meeting, the BoE kept its policy rates unchanged at 4%. Policymakers noted that a deceleration in overall inflation is underway, favoured by a restrictive policy stance, softening labour market, and easing services inflation. Risks around achieving the bank’s 2% inflation target are more balanced, and downside risks from weak demand have grown. Looking ahead, we expect one rate cut in December and two more next year, although further actions may depend on incoming data.
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White papersMyth and Legends: European Broadly syndicated Loans
Broadly Syndicated Loans have grown over two decades, offering inflation protection through floating rates and diversification across sectors. Active management and due diligence are key to mitigating risks. Despite myths, European loans show resilience, strong returns, and market depth, with M&G’s long-standing fund exemplifying their potential.
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White papersIs the U.S. Shutdown Impact About to Hit?
While U.S. consumer sentiment has broadly held up, it may begin to crumble in certain segments, potentially impacting the sector at its most important time.
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White papersRetirement Accumulation Strategies with Real Assets and Inflation Risk
This article presents a comprehensive, dynamic asset allocation framework for retirement savings, extending the classical Merton model to include human capital. This framework reconciles the intuitive age-based glide path with financial theory, recognizing that total wealth consists of financial capital and the present value of future contributions.
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White papersThe ‘Disruptive Ds’ Powering Commodities Markets
Commodities exposure could help adapt diversified portfolios for a changing world—eight trends explain why.
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White papersTariff fallout milder than feared, for now
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF upgraded its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%. Global trade and financial conditions have proven resilient, helped by trade deals between the US and some of its trading partners. We believe the global trading system is bruised but not broken: roughly 70% of trade is flowing as before. An artificial intelligence–driven (AI) productivity upswing has also supported prospects for global growth.
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White papersGold beyond records
Gold has hit multiple record highs in 2025, recently surging past the $4,000 mark and climbing over 20% since mid-August. In our view, both cyclical and structural factors are contributing to this growth: growing unpredictability in macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes, demographic shifts, structurally higher demand from central banks (CBs), expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a weak dollar are all supporting factors, and most recently, higher political uncertainty with the US shutdown.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 4Q2025
As global monetary policy continues to moderate while trade and political strains persist, we are seeing decided changes in the fixed income landscape. In our view, U.S. investment grade bonds appear to offer less relative value than issues in Europe and elsewhere that may provide windows to capitalize on price dislocation. At the same time, the all-in yields provided by high yield and other sectors merit consideration despite tight credits spreads, albeit with an eye toward careful security selection.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q4 2025
Fixed Income Perspectives outlines the current macro and market views from across Capital Group’s extensive fixed income team and offers insights on investors’ bond exposure against an ever-changing backdrop.
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White papersCapital Market Assumptions
Why a new economic regime calls for a reassessment of risk and rewards
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White papersBeyond emerging markets: unlocking benefits of frontier local currency debt
Frontier local currency debt is among the most overlooked corners of the global fixed income market, yet it offers a rare mix of diversification, yield, and - contrary to popular belief - relatively low volatility. Building on the familiar case for emerging market debt, frontier markets take investors a step further into smaller, less crowded economies that remain far off the radar of most global allocators. Few are better positioned for this challenge than Aktia’s Emerging Markets team, which has been managing the Aktia EM Frontier Bond+ strategy for nearly a decade.
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White papersEM debt: Cautious confidence in a shifting landscape
As we enter the final quarter of 2025, emerging market (EM) debt continues to demonstrate resilience against a complex global backdrop. Despite rising policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and evolving trade dynamics, EM debt has largely outperformed other fixed income asset classes so far this year. In this note, we evaluate the drivers behind EM debt’s strong returns, assess the sustainability of current trends, and outline the key risks and opportunities for the remainder of the year.
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White papersInvesting amid era-defining tech change and an expensive U.S. dollar
TIAA shares their outlook on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, strategic positioning amid dollar headwinds, and emerging opportunities driven by AI’s transformative impact on energy infrastructure and data centers, while navigating geopolitical risks and real estate recovery in an era of innovation and uncertainty.
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White papersInflation or employment? The Fed makes its choice
The scales have tipped in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) long-running balancing act between taming inflation and promoting full employment. With September’s quarter-point interest rate cut, the first such move in nine months, Fed officials appear to have made the labour market a key concern.
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White papersMacro brief: What to expect next from the European Central Bank
Greater-than-expected economic resilience in Europe has led our Capital Strategy Research (CSR) team to revise expectations around the European Central Bank (ECB) in the short term.
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White papersFed delivers a cut, signals more as growth momentum fades
The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut and updated projections signal a more accommodative monetary policy ahead, with policymakers now expecting twice as many rate cuts this year as previously anticipated. This shifting environment creates new investment opportunities across multiple asset classes, including shorter-duration fixed income, real estate, equities, and municipal bonds that investors should consider as the Fed continues its easing cycle.
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White papersECB treads cautiously
The ECB kept policy rates unchanged at its September meeting, emphasising a data-dependent approach before deciding on further rate cuts.
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White papersEM debt: Cautious confidence in a shifting landscape
As we enter the final quarter of 2025, emerging market (EM) debt continues to demonstrate resilience against a complex global backdrop.
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White papersSeptember ECB meeting: The end of the easing cycle… maybe?
The ECB kept rates unchanged in September, hinting the easing cycle may be ending as inflation slows and growth stabilizes, though risks from U.S. trade tensions and fiscal pressures linger.
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WebinarAutumn: A Season of Change? Navigating Economic Winds
During this webinar, our experts Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist, shared insights on navigating economic changes in autumn, moderated by Swaha Pattanaik, Head of Publishing and Digital Strategy at Amundi Investment Institute.
