All Inflation articles – Page 2
-
White papersSpillovers of the “K-shape” consumer to securitized debt markets
Explores how uneven consumer spending is affecting performance across securitized credit segments.
-
White papers
Global Investment Views - February 2026
The year began eventfully, with the US using its military strength and economic leverage to achieve President Trump’s foreign policy goals. The Fed receiving subpoenas and military action in Venezuela did not move oil prices and risk assets. But his threats to the sovereignty of a NATO ally sparked temporary volatility, with markets eventually recovering from that scare and US lagging the other regions. Fiscal profligacy and inflation concerns in Japan pushed bond yields up.
-
PodcastHow the AI Debt Supercycle Is Reshaping Credit Markets
AI-related bond issuance is surging, reshaping the opportunity set for fixed-income investors. In addition to robust U.S. growth, constrained inflation, and an attractive opportunities beyond the U.S., investors must also navigate greater tail risks, more complex financing structures, and rising political uncertainty around AI and energy use.
-
White papersGeopolitical swings in the spotlight in Davos
The global equilibrium is evolving, particularly amid significant geopolitical shifts that are causing increased volatility in financial markets. President Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on eight NATO members — unless the United States were allowed to purchase Greenland from Denmark (a threat that was withdrawn a few days later) — initially caused a short market sell‑off, followed by a relief rally last week. Meanwhile, the European Parliament voted to suspend ratification of the EU‑US trade deal, which would otherwise have come into force on 7 February. This does not mean the deal is dead, but that Europe is adopting a ‘wait‑and‑see’ approach.
-
White papersCould biodiversity become the next inflation hedge?
Real assets have moved back to the centre of institutional portfolios. After a decade in which financial holdings dominated asset allocation, investors are once again prioritising funds with physical underpinnings, long duration and the capacity to preserve real value through volatile market conditions.
-
VideoGiven the uncertainty over inflation, protection matters
The economic outlook for 2026 appears to be in equilibrium. Inflation is close to the targets set by the main central banks, monetary policy normalising gradually, and economic growth supportive. But appearances can deceive. There is potential for higher inflation, particularly in the services sector.
-
White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 1Q 2026
After a generally stellar year for fixed income, 2026 looks more demanding, with fewer rate tailwinds and tight spreads putting a premium on security selection and global diversification, particularly as tail risk rises.
-
White papersUS inflation down, but still above target
US CPI was up 2.7% YoY in December, unchanged from the previous month, meeting market expectations and significantly down from levels seen in early 2024. Core inflation — which excludes food and energy — rose 2.6%, slightly below expectations. It was weighed down by declines in used cars and trucks and by IT‑related goods.
-
White papersTreasury yields reflect a curious equilibrium to start the year
As we begin the new year, actual and implied volatilities in the US Treasury market have fallen to four-year lows, returning to levels that were common before the pandemic. Of course, the last four years included a number of disruptors: the inflation surge to multi-decade highs; the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rapid tightening to suppress inflation; the Silicon Valley Bank crisis; President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement; and the eventual Fed easing in response to weakening job creation.
-
White papersDecember CPI report: Unlikely to alter the Fed’s course
Inflation data supports a steady Fed stance, reinforcing expectations for gradual policy easing.
-
White papersECB to stay on hold in early 2026
Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.0% in December, according to a preliminary estimate, hitting the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since August. We expect inflation to stay below this target both this year and next year, while real GDP growth should slow overall in 2026 despite the recent positive momentum. Growth forecasts were upgraded, while inflation still signals a deceleration due to sluggish private consumption, slowing wage growth, and further euro appreciation (which tends to make exports cheaper).
-
White papersDecember jobs report: Conflicting dynamics
Strong headline employment masks softer underlying labor trends and slowing wage growth.
-
VideoInvestment outlook – Handling the shifting investment landscape
What to expect for the world economy in 2026? How will the US Federal Reserve respond to a softer labour market but sticky inflation?
-
White papersDecember ECB meeting: Still in “a good place,” with a focus on optionality
The ECB maintains flexibility, balancing easing inflation with cautious forward guidance.
-
White papers2026 Investment Outlook
Our latest Outlook report offers actionable insights into global markets
-
White papersFed cuts, keeps a balanced tone
The Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced its target federal funds rate by 25bp at its December policy meeting. Chair Powell acknowledged that risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate — inflation and labour markets — remain. However, we believe some signals from the Fed suggest labour markets are weaker than current data indicates.
-
White papers2026 Fixed income outlook: Structural shifts create strategic opportunities
The global fixed income landscape is becoming more differentiated and policy-driven. Fiscal policy is reshaping yield curves, while the narrowing gap between developed and emerging markets demands a fresh approach to credit assessment. Despite tight valuations in traditional credit, the macro environment remains constructive with improving growth, moderating inflation and healthy corporate balance sheets. Discover where we’re finding the most attractive risk-adjusted opportunities across securitized credit, municipals, leveraged finance and beyond.
-
White papersREIT market perspectives December 2025
This outlook provides a broad assessment of listed real estate (REIT) market dynamics for December 2025, positioning REITs as a targeted real-estate exposure that can complement traditional equity and fixed-income allocations.
-
White papersWheels in motion at the Fed
In addition to mulling interest rates, the Fed is looking out for complications stemming from the end of quantitative tapering.
-
White papersU.S. Economy: All Noise and No Signal?
Although the government shutdown has officially ended, economic observers and market participants have had over 40 days with virtually no official economic statistics from the government. Moreover, government data will likely still be affected even after the government reopens due to interruptions in the data collection process. The shutdown itself is expected to distort the data, as a significant number of federal workers saw no paychecks, reduced spending and filed for unemployment benefits (that need to be repaid).
