All Inflation articles – Page 6
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White papersTrump has constraints – May macro and asset class views
April has been a month of extremes, but it is in extreme scenarios that we are learning what limitations Trump faces in his bid to reshape the US domestically, and in its relationship with the rest of the world. We think these constraints provide the market with some reassurance that the most negative tail-scenarios can be avoided, even though the economic outlook is set to deteriorate in coming months.
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White papersTrade war is clouding global growth
“Uncertainty on policy and tariffs, and weakening US economic growth call for a continued rotation towards regions such as Europe and selective emerging markets that may offer strong long-term opportunities.”
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White papersPrivate Assets likely to stay resilient during market turmoil
Market weakness started in late February, primarily driven by a valuation correction in the US tech sector and a de-concentration of most crowded stocks. This was amplified by declining sentiment amongst households, corporations, and investors.
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White papersBond market volatility presents more opportunities for multi-asset investors
Central bank policy, rising geopolitical tensions and escalating concerns around the global macroeconomic backdrop have together caused considerable equity market volatility as well as a significant repricing in the fixed income universe.
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White papersModerating inflation keeping ECB on track
The eurozone economy is facing a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty. Changes in US foreign policy are forcing a re-think of Europe’s defence spending and Germany’s fiscal stance. The economic outlook is clouded by US trade policy, with the imposition of tariffs a significant shock to growth.
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White papersAsset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q 2025
“Much now depends on whether we see a more structured and predictable approach to policymaking in the U.S., especially on trade and the size and cost of government.”
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 2Q 2025
The Trump administration’s announced tariffs have introduced new turbulence to the markets as investors seek to assess the possible ramifications across economies and asset classes.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q2 2025
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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White papersHarrison Street 2025 Europe Outlook
Europe’s Inflation Story: Significant Progress Has Been Made but Risks Remain
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White papersDiversification in times of uncertain markets
Over the past week, markets have experienced extreme uncertainty caused by US policy gyrations on tariffs. This uncertainty has started to weigh on US assets, including the dollar and US Treasuries. Despite the 90-day pause announced on 9 April, the US average tariff rate remains at a 100-year high, with rising US tariffs on China triggering retaliation from the latter.
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White papersThe Tale of Tariffs Round Two for the US Economy
How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?
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White papersWhat do tariffs mean for emerging market debt?
At this point, it is challenging to determine the precise impact of tariffs on EM economic activity as there are too many moving parts, including the possibility of negotiated reductions, retaliatory actions by US trading partners, and fluctuations in the currencies of affected economies. That said, we can look at the current level of tariffs and exports to the US to give us an idea about the portion of EM GDP that is at risk.
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White papersTrump’s Tariffs: The Impact on Fixed Income
New tariffs could hamper U.S. economic growth and change market dynamics for the long term.
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PodcastOuterblue Talks Research - Seat belts fastened for the global economic rewire
The market roller coaster continues. After riding a wave of optimism in Europe in the wake of the German fiscal bazooka to increase defence spending, the confirmation of US tariffs sent markets suddenly plunging. What will be the economic impact of Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs?
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White papersTariffs explained: Assessing global economic impact
The much-anticipated “Liberation Day” on 2 April has provided investors with more details on the direction of US trade policy under the Trump administration. Despite hopes of a more moderate approach, the tariffs were much more substantial than expected, raising the prospect of lower economic growth, higher inflation and interest rate cuts.
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White papersTrump’s tariffs – A paradigm change
In the absence of major revisions, the latest US import tariffs are a stagflationary shock for the US economy, potentially derailing growth and raising recession risks. A major risk-off move is now underway as financial markets move to a completely new interpretation of ‘US exceptionalism’.
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White papersGold at a time of tariffs and trade war
“Gold prices should remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets, amid a threat of trade war, tariffs and their economic fallout.”
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White papersAvoiding the thorns
The bond market is a rational voice amid the panic caused by Trump’s tariffs.
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White papersSelf-fulfilling prophecy?
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
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White papersThe macro fallout from ‘Liberation Day’
The sweeping tariff hikes announced on “Liberation Day” have escalated fears of stagflation, pushing recession odds higher and rattling markets. With inflation likely to rise and GDP growth projected to drop by up to 2.4%, the economic strain could be the most significant since the 1930s. Still, investor sentiment may recover as attention shifts toward pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation.
