All Inflation articles – Page 6
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White papers
Fed and ECB: towards rate cuts in 2024
”Markets expect Central Banks to cut rates in early 2024. This is too optimistic, but falling inflation is good news for investors.”
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2023
The impact of rate increases on businesses is expected to intensify in 2024. Businesses haven’t been impacted much by higher rates so far because they have used the cash they collected during Covid and refinance needs have been limited.
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Key Investments themes 2024: views from around the Generali Investments ecosystem
The global economy showed remarkable resilience in 2023, avoiding the sharp recession that was widely expected at the start of the year.
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Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - December 2023
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 14 December 2023
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Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - December 2023
Following 3.1% growth in 2023, we expect global growth to slow to 2.4% in 2024, well below the IMF’s expectations of 2.9% in 2024 and the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8%. The weaker performance of advanced economies is one of the main reasons for this divergence. Indeed, we expect them to decelerate from 1.5% this year to 0.7% in 2024, while the IMF forecasts advanced economy growth at 1.4% next year.
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Higher rates will start to bite the corporate sector in 2024
The impact of rate increases on businesses is expected to intensify in 2024. Businesses haven’t been impacted much by higher rates so far because they have used the cash they collected during Covid and refinance needs have been limited. However, refinancing needs will rise in 2024 Small and medium sized companies and lower rated HY issuers will be most impacted. The spillover from higher rates will be more limited for IG companies.
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Podcast
CIO perspectives on what lies ahead in 2024
M&G’s CIOs Jim Leaviss and Fabiana Fedeli share their perspectives for 2024, considering how to potentially drive returns through the uncertainty ahead, and highlighting the importance of being selective in a challenging economic environment.
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FOMC on Hold — Rate Cuts by May 2024?
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep its key interest rate, the federal funds rate, unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%.
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Assessing the U.S. Economy’s Evolving Sensitivity to Interest Rates
Our research series reveals that a varied adjustment process across certain sectors lowered the broader economy’s sensitivity to interest rates.
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The Balance Between Corporate Profit Margins and Economic Resilience
This blog shares our views on the relationship between corporate margins and different U.S. economic growth scenarios using our corporate profit model to estimate performance.
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Higher for longer: 2024 Outlook
As ever, central bank policy has the power to make or break markets.
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The Federated Hermes 2024 Outlook
2024 will once again be a year where events define the investment landscape. From geopolitical risk, including conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, to the enormous challenges posed by the need for a just transition, investors face volatility and uncertainty. And this is all taking place against the backdrop of the largest election year in history and markets adjusting to ‘higher for longer’ interest rates.
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The overlooked appeal of short-dated euro corporate debt
Corporate balance sheets continue to provide support for opportunities in the front-end of the credit curve in the eurozone.
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Swiss real estate insights: Attractive despite changes in conditions
Although concepts like inflation and interest rates had nearly been forgotten in the past decade, we have been reminded of them in dramatic fashion over the last 18 months.
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From NICE to VILE—The Future of Inflation
We explore the type of inflationary environment that we might expect across developed markets in the future and its potential effect on global asset prices.
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Global Real Estate Outlook: Negotiating higher rates and other new paradigms
‘Higher for longer’ interest rates mean global real estate markets are negotiating a new paradigm. Investors can no longer rely on value growth to drive performance, but could other return drivers compensate? We explore the stand-out opportunities and potential traps that need to be factored in.
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The Mortgage-Backed Moment
Securitized credit, and especially mortgage-backed securities, can be an attractive source of income while waiting for volatile bond markets to settle.
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Japan Insights - Real estate markets: a watershed year in the making
Japan is at the critical juncture of breaking out from its three decades of stagnation. Nominal growth is returning. The outlook is not set in stone, but the current wage-price dynamics look promising and supportive. We expect any policy adjustments during this transition period to be slow and steady.
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Markets bounce on waning inflation
Markets reacted positively to stronger-than-expected US and UK inflation data this week.
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Not your average credit cycle
Geopolitics, hard landings, falling consumer confidence and corporate belt-tightening could all be part of the investment picture in 2024. That was the message from Federated Hermes’ Fixed Income Forum in London on 14 November.