All Inflation articles – Page 10
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White papersHow long can the Central Banks’ divergence last
The pace of disinflation in most advanced economies is following a similar path, albeit with differences in sticky components. Central bank policy rates are unlikely to diverge significantly (our baseline), but this does not rule out the ECB and the BoE cutting rates faster than the Fed, especially given their weaker growth outlook. The impact of this scenario would be steeper yield curves in the Eurozone and the UK, but not substantially weaker exchange rates, as some fear. A bigger risk to European exchange rates stems from (unanticipated) energy price shocks rather than lower relative interest rates. We explore why.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2024
US mega caps significantly outperformed the rest of the US markets in the first half of the year, driven by better-than-expected economic activity, AI exuberance and superior earnings. Looking ahead, we see a potential for a rally-broadening, which will not be linear and is likely to have multiple legs.
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White papersPositioning for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Calls from senior members of the Democratic party finally became too great this past weekend, with President Biden bowing out of the 2024 U.S. Presidential race. He will not be seeking a second term.
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White papersElection 2024: Economics, policy and positioning for a soft landing
The S&P 500 enjoyed a solid start to the year, fueled by the Federal Reserve embracing optimism about inflation without sacrificing growth. During Q2, however, evidence of still sticky inflation has reduced the number of expected rate cuts, weighing on market sentiment and resulting in more modest equity gains.
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White papersSigns of rotation emerge in equities
Slowing inflation in the US and Europe, and expectations of improving earnings could pave the way for a continuation of the broadening of the rally outside the US mega caps.
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White papersA Preliminary Language for a Post-Global World
This book sets out what we see as the key issues facing asset owners in the macro environment, and shares the outlook for capital markets, strategic allocation and the future of the investment industry. It will also explore how the next ten years are likely to be very different from the 1980–2020 period.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q3 2024
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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VideoMid-year outlook video – Overweight equities; locking in today’s yields
Equities should see further good returns in the second half of 2024, justifying a continuation of our overweight stance, particularly in the US and for NASDAQ stocks. In Europe, small capitalisation stocks should benefit from the ongoing recovery fuelling consumer demand.
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White papersMaking sense of infrastructure debt
The capital expenditure required to support anticipated growth in power demand while also reducing carbon emissions will necessitate significant amounts of debt financing going forward. Don Dimitrievich, Portfolio Manager for Nuveen Energy Infrastructure Credit, explains the evolving infrastructure debt opportunity set and the EIC team’s approach to thematic investing in IPE’s recent July/August 2024 report.
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White papersIG Credit: Finding Value in a More Stable Environment
Record-high yields and supportive fundamental and technical factors continue to present opportunities in IG credit amid stabilizing spreads. Slowly declining inflation and the U.S. economy’s ability to grow despite elevated real interest rates—the drivers of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current wait-and-see stance—have created a highly favorable environment for investment grade (IG) credit.
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White papersAre We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE
Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
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White papersU.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Questions
A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally, while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.
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White papersMid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
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White papersFiber-to-the-home: Missed connections? i3 article on navigating the investment landscape
Fiber optic cables, originally developed in the 1950s to allow doctors to view the inside of a patient, are now essential infrastructure that everyone needs to access remote employment opportunities, as well as access to education, healthcare, entertainment and even socialization.
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White papersMid-year investment update – Navigating political turmoil
The US economy is still on a soft landing path, even if the speed and timing of the touchdown vary after each economic release. The most recent US inflation data show price rises slowing more quickly than in the first part of the year. The eurozone, by contrast, continues to see persistently higher inflation
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Asset Manager NewsOperating expertise essential for delivering core-plus returns in European real estate market
Chase McWhorter, Institutional Real Estate, Inc.’s managing director, Americas, recently spoke with Jorge Duarte, fund manager of Hines European Property Partners, a diversified, open-end core-plus real estate fund focused on quality, stabilized assets in European markets with embedded growth potential. Following is an excerpt of that conversation
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White papersHigher for Longer: The CIOs’ Weigh In
While this year’s inflation and rates environment has disappointed many, we see it as a bump in the road that has created opportunity in several markets.Midway through 2024, it’s pretty clear what the story of the year has been so far: stickier inflation and higher rates for longer than many investors wanted or expected.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July 2024
Inflation trends, central banks and geopolitics to drive markets
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2024
There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.
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VideoMidyear Equity Outlook Investing Beyond the Megacaps
Nelson Yu: If you told me at the beginning of the year that we were going to go from starting with six interest-rate cuts to now we’re hoping to get one, I would be shocked to say that the equity markets are up 15%.
