All Inflation articles – Page 10
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White papers
Ten for 2023—Midyear Update
Last November, the heads of our four investment platforms identified the key themes they expected to be prominent in the markets during 2023. With the year now half over, we revisited these concepts to see how they’ve played out so far. We give ourselves an interim grade for each one and assess our outlook for the second half of 2023.
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How long will convexity disappoint?
These are uncertain times – be it regarding growth, inflation, or the extent of rate hikes. And yet, the level of one of the most common measures for volatility – the famous VIX index – has not budged much since 20 March and the end of the fast-paced banking crisis. This raises two principal questions about volatility and convexity, which we explore in this weekly edition of Simply put.
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Fixed income: choosing a different rhythm
Increased risk appetite and revived hopes for a soft landing present an interesting question to fixed-income investors: how keenly should they dance to the market’s tune?
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The Fed Senses the Light at the End of the Tunnel
PGIM Fixed Income’s views on the July FOMC meeting, which could mark the end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle and may give way to a fine-tuning phase.
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White papers
11 … or will it be 12? (Or more?)
The Federal Open Market Committee just decided to increase the federal funds target rate by 0.25%, resulting in a new target of 5.25% to 5.50%.
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Podcast
Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Receding inflation doesn’t mean the battle is won
After months of rising rates, there could be good news for central banks as we start to see signs that inflation is finally cooling down.
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White papers
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - July/August 2023
The United Kingdom is the only advanced country with wage growth above core inflation, risking a wage-price spiral. Inflation is broad-based and expected to remain much higher than in the rest of the G7, above 6.0% in 2023 and well above 3.0% by end-2024. Growth will be flat at best, but all risks point to the downside.
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Global Investment Views - August 2023
”We remain sceptical on inflated valuations because the uptrend in risk assets is due to the laggards catching up rather than any meaningful improvement to earnings outlooks.”
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Passing the stress test
Results from the Bank of England’s (BoE) annual stress test indicate the UK’s largest banks should be resilient in the event of a severe stress scenario.
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Fearful markets brace for further hikes
The US Federal Reserve latest meeting minutes indicate further tightening likely following June pause.
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Macro insights: Resilient growth buoys markets, but risks elevated
Investors powered a broad rally in risk assets in the second quarter as recession concerns appeared to diminish.
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Fixed Income Outlook – Shifting narratives
Market narratives have been shifting rapidly. We have gone from speculation that rate hikes by US Federal Reserve had begun to ‘break’ the financial system, to imminent recession and imminent rate cuts, to a resilient US economy, to weak domestic demand and deflation in China, and slumping growth in the eurozone amid continued central bank policy tightening.
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White papers
Fixed Income Perspectives Q3 2023 outlook
Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team
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The UK’s trifle with inflation
Brandywine Global: With the Bank of England still struggling to contain inflation, we believe market expectations for additional near-term rate hikes have left gilts attractively valued relative to other G10 countries.
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White papers
Learning the ropes - Unveiling the attractiveness of real estate investing
Real estate offers investors four key benefits. First, it brings diversification benefits to multi-asset portfolios. Real estate has low and sometimes even negative correlations of returns with other asset classes such as bonds and equities.
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White papers
The case for commercial real estate as part of a well-diversified portfolio
The investment landscape has been significantly impacted by the shift in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy beginning in March of 2022.
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Podcast
Emerging Opportunities in Emerging Markets Debt
The Emerging Markets sector has not been immune to today’s market challenges. Between the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, factors such as the cost of living and food inflation have caused an adverse impact on sovereign balance sheets.
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White papers
An accounting ‘big bang’? The implications for insurance investors from IFRS 9 and 17
Sustained inflation has triggered unprecedent monetary tightening and a surge in interest rates which in turn have revived volatility and provoked changes in market liquidity conditions.
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White papers
How pension schemes should view stagflation risks
There is an economic scenario that pension funds perhaps fear the most, but for which most are probably least prepared: Stagflation. Most schemes have a strategic asset allocation based on a relatively optimistic “goldilocks” scenario. Rightly so, you could argue, as stagflation’s heady combination of accelerating prices and meagre growth remains an economic rarity through history.
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White papers
Wait and see (redux)
Recent inflation and GDP data complicate the course of central bank policy.