All Inflation articles – Page 11
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White papers
Higher for Longer: The CIOs’ Weigh In
While this year’s inflation and rates environment has disappointed many, we see it as a bump in the road that has created opportunity in several markets.Midway through 2024, it’s pretty clear what the story of the year has been so far: stickier inflation and higher rates for longer than many investors wanted or expected.
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Global Investment Views - July 2024
Inflation trends, central banks and geopolitics to drive markets
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Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2024
There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.
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Video
Midyear Equity Outlook Investing Beyond the Megacaps
Nelson Yu: If you told me at the beginning of the year that we were going to go from starting with six interest-rate cuts to now we’re hoping to get one, I would be shocked to say that the equity markets are up 15%.
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The Case For Resilient High Yield Private Credit
With inflation lingering and rates moving at a much slower pace than expected, the team at Infranity explains why BB-rated infrastructure debt is a particular sweet spot for investors seeking a safe haven in a changeable market.
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Real Estate Outlook – Europe, Edition May 2024: A new cycle begins
Inflation has not been beaten yet. We’ve come a long way from the highs of inflation and interest rates – and the ensuing capital value correction. A new cycle is in its infancy, but the effects of the last one still linger.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – Europe, Edition May 2024 A new cycle begins
We’ve come a long way from the highs of inflation and interest rates – and the ensuing capital value correction. A new cycle is in its infancy, but the effects of the last one still linger.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – Global, Edition May 2024 Approaching the bottom
In the first three months of 2024 US economic growth was positive, but weaker than expected. GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 1.6% quarter on quarter (QoQ), a sharp downshift from the 3.4% annualized in 4Q23.
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White papers
2024 midyear outlook: Widening cracks in the investment landscape
“Step on a crack, break your mother’s back” conjures up images of children playfully jumping over gaps between sidewalk squares. As grownups, we can indulge such youthful superstitions as harmless. As investors, however, we recognize the very real risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. This is the challenge we’re facing midway through 2024.
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White papers
US inflation is moderating
“Falling price pressures should be supportive of US government bonds and investors could also explore other quality fixed income assets in developed as well as emerging markets.”
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White papers
US elections: the Inflation Reduction Act and the risk of repeal
In November the US goes to the polls to decide who will be the next president – the Democrat incumbent Joe Biden or returning Republican nominee Donald Trump. Under Biden, in August 2022 the US introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a federal law which aims to, among other things, invest into domestic energy production while promoting clean energy. It represents the largest ever Congressional investment in the energy transition.
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White papers
Tailoring the Taylor Rule for a clearer steer on rates
What will happen to interest rates this year? We’ve developed a modified version of the Taylor Rule which might have the answers.
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The ECB initiates rate cuts after a long gap
“The ECB avoided any surprises for the markets as it reduced policy rates amid decelerating inflation, which could boost appetite for European fixed income.”
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Adapting to a shifting liquidity backdrop
Many UK money market funds have been extending weighted average maturities as the BoE considers rate cuts.
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It All Rests on Infrastructure
We see the asset class underpinning several key growth megatrends, but also the return of “big government” and its pursuit of security and protectionism.
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150-Year Analysis: What Happens to Equities When Inflation Strikes
The quick rise in consumer prices following the pandemic disrupted decades of low inflation globally and sparked equity volatility that investors still struggle to navigate. While inflation has settled down, it has stubbornly stayed above central banks’ targets of around 2%. High inflation can cut out the bulk of a portfolio’s return, making it a paramount concern for investors.
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White papers
The Structural Trends, Whoever Wins
Positioning for geopolitical shocks or election results is difficult, but we think the resulting structural trends are easier to identify and prepare for.
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US consumer price pressures are subsiding
“Declining US inflation is positive for US bonds, and investors should also keep a global approach to potentially benefit from attractive yields elsewhere, including in emerging markets.”
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White papers
Asset-Based Finance: Private Credit’s Key Diversifier
Private capital is increasingly being used to finance consumer spending.
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Cyclical, structural, vintage: The outlook for real estate equity
High inflation and rising rates hit activity in real estate markets over the past year. But cautious optimism is now returning to the investment landscape in the UK and Europe, say Imogen Ebbs and George Fraser-Harding.