All Inflation articles
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White papersThe Long Road to a U.S. Housing Recovery
Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling from its high of 8% in 2023 to just over 6%, the U.S. housing market continues to face challenges. Sellers are facing tepid demand and seeing potential buyers back out. Affordability, despite recent improvements, remains far below pre-pandemic levels. Residential investment per household has not improved, and structural factors mean supply constraints and price pressures could continue even if the Fed lowers rates further.
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White papersConflict affecting sentiment
The Eurozone March PMI survey fell during the previous month, indicating businesses are getting worried about the Middle East conflict.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - April 2026
With the Middle East conflict now entering its second month, high energy prices have produced knock-on effects across global financial markets. The US and European breakeven curves surged as markets repriced inflation expectations and the likelihood of central-bank rate cuts.
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VideoContingent capital; a strong case in today’s fixed income market
In this edition of Talking Markets Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, discusses how stronger bank capital positions and post‑crisis regulation continue to reshape the contingent capital landscape. He shares why CoCos are increasingly compelling for income‑focused investors, offering a robustness that has held up well through recent market stresses.
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White papersCentral Banks and bond yields in focus
“The stagflationary impulse from the conflict will reshape the growth and inflation risk trade-off, creating a policy dilemma for central banks globally. Overall, we expect central banks to postpone easing, but not to reverse it, a wait-and-see stance seems plausible and appropriate.”
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White papersFixed Income: Why This Is Not 2022
The echoes of 2022 are loud but misleading. The macro still points to easing, not hikes, while the credit cycle begins to turn.
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WebinarWebinar replay: How global macro factors and geopolitical events are feeding through to debt markets
Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, looks at the key forces shaping debt markets today, from global macro trends to geopolitical developments, and how these influences feed into the team’s strategic investment approach. He also outlines his outlook for the months ahead and highlights where he sees the most compelling opportunities across fixed income.
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White papersMapping the fallout: Iran, oil, and global markets
Macro impact: The Iran conflict and risks to the Strait of Hormuz do not yet warrant a major change to our base case macro outlook. Growth adjustments remain limited, inflation has nudged higher, and central banks are broadly in a wait-and-see mode, with policy rates expected to remain largely stable.
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White papersMarket Commentary: Looking across the valley
If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.
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White papersFebruary CPI report: Calm before the storm
U.S. inflation showed signs of stabilization in the February CPI report, though persistent service and energy pressures suggest that renewed inflation risks could delay the pace of monetary easing.
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WebinarPlayback | Implications of US-Israel strikes on Iran
During this webinar, our experts Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist, and Didier Borowski, Head of Macro Policy Research explored potential scenarios, assessed the outlook for energy markets and inflation, and examined the regional and cross-asset implications for investors.
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White papersThe Trump administration’s affordability plan
The Trump administration’s affordability plan aims to address housing cost pressures through supply-focused policies, though its effectiveness will depend on implementation and broader market conditions.
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White papersEMEA Investment grade examined 2026 – The importance of portfolio construction
While credit markets proved to be relatively resilient in the face of multiple geopolitical events, there is no guarantee that this will always be the case. So, how do we see credit markets against such a backdrop?
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White papersThe K-Shaped Economy Weighs on the U.S. Consumer
Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of U.S. GDP. We expect 2026 consumption to be stable and contribute to solid GDP growth but remain concerned about higher inequality and the growing share of spending coming from high-income consumers.
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White papersAI world of opportunities
Highlights how AI is reshaping global markets, creating investment opportunities across multiple sectors.
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White papersThe Ultimate ‘GPT’: Is AI Game-Changing for the Macro Picture?
We anticipate moderate impacts in the near term, but will look for more profound shifts—albeit with some delay—as the years unfold.
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White papersMacro brief: Five questions on the European Central Bank – will it really hike interest rates in 2026?
Given her view that inflation risks in the euro area are higher than expected, economist Beth Beckett suspects it will not be long before the European Central Bank adopts a hawkish bias and she has pencilled in a rate hike in late 2026.
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White papers2026 inflation outlook: Navigating uncertainty
The year ahead looks set for a more balanced, although not necessarily benign, inflationary backdrop, even as the full impact of the US trade tariffs has yet to materialise in prices. For investors returns are more likely to come from income carry and specific exposure to inflation risk.
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White papersFederal Reserve Chair Nomination: Kevin Warsh
Looks at what a potential Kevin Warsh nomination could mean for Fed policy direction and market expectations.
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VideoTalking Markets – Premier Miton (Ireland) Global Dynamic Credit Fund
What will steer bond markets in the months ahead? Lloyd Harris, Fund Manager of the Premier Miton (Ireland) Global Dynamic Credit Fund, shares why he believes the US is poised to stimulate both the economy and markets, and what this could mean for interest rates, credit spreads and bond valuations. He also considers the geopolitical risks currently sitting in the background, how these could feed through into higher commodity prices, and why that matters for inflation and bond investors.
