All Inflation articles
-
PodcastCLOs: Finding Value in Turbulent Markets
Co-Head of Structured Credit, Melissa Ricco discusses the current state of the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market. She provides insight into the year-to-date performance of the asset class, the current credit quality picture, and what risks the team is monitoring.
-
White papers
How Ukraine Mission Creep Will Fuel the Next Inflation Wave
And that’s on top of the other risks from war aims that are turning ever more resolute, expansive, and vague.
-
White papers
Inflation-Fighting Properties
Real estate has tended to get a prominent page in inflation playbooks—but do some parts of the market get a particularly strong tailwind from rising prices?
-
White papers
Upward pressures on inflation are the major market driver
We expect central banks to remain on the hawkish side as long as inflation expectations remain on the upside, as central banks are afraid of losing their credibility. However, the Fed and the ECB are in different positions. The Fed wants to tighten financing conditions to slow demand, as the US economy is running hot. However, the ECB is stuck in an impossible situation: Eurozone inflation is primarily driven by higher energy costs, and a central bank has few “tools” to fight cost-driven inflation without hurting growth.
-
White papers
50 Is The New 25
The FOMC raised the Fed funds rate by 50bps and announced the beginning of quantitative tightening. Chairman Powell signaled that 50bps hikes will be the new normal for the next couple of meetings, as inflation fears remain. The BoE and ECB also contemplate their paths ahead.
-
White papers
Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation
The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.
-
White papers
Setting your investment objectives: institutional asset allocation practice
Most institutional investors already have an Investment Policy Statement (IPS) that defines the objectives, investment limits, investment universe and governance of their portfolios. These parameters are not set in stone and must be reviewed periodically given changes in investors’ circumstances, philosophy, long-term expectations and regulations.
-
White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2022
We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. the more resilient US economy) and in market performances.
-
White papers
The Fed is on the Clock
While the U.S. headline GDP contracted 1.4% in the first quarter, we still see solid domestic activities in real terms. In particular, the 9% growth in business fixed investments should spur further economic gains in the medium term, and the 2.7% rise in consumer spending shows consumption remains robust. Weaker inventory building and very weak net exports shaved 0.8 and 3.2 ppts from GDP, respectively, but the widening trade deficits are generally to be expected given the U.S. is leading the economic recovery in the current global business cycle.
-
White papers
Will Inflation Kill Growth?
Inflation is outpacing wages in both Europe and the U.S., households are becoming poorer. How long before they start cutting spending and growth sputters?
-
White papers
Colliding Demand and Supply Shocks
In this Macro Perspectives, our economists discuss how to best navigate the volatile geopolitical environment’s impact on markets, and how the policy playbook may change based on growth and inflation expectations.
-
White papers
A Value Opportunity in Hybrids
Recent spread-widening appears to reflect concern about rising rates incentivizing extensions, and an economic slowdown incentivizing coupon deferrals—concerns we regard as significantly overstated and a source of attractive valuations.
-
White papers
Market snapshot: the ‘S-word’ looms into view
As investors grapple with the ongoing fallout from the Ukraine crisis and Covid-19, the risks posed by stagflation are growing.
-
White papers
Bad Q1 GDP Report Hides Good News
Avoiding a disruptive cutoff of Russian energy supplies has helped maintain overall economic strength. However, a future phase-out of Russian oil raises concerns about inflation and economic activity.
-
White papers
Crossroads: Politics, Inflation, & Bonds
With a lot at stake for bond investors we investigate where investors can find opportunities in today’s rapidly changing market.
-
White papers
Listening for the Tectonic Shifts
Salient developments will shape financial markets over the next year, but listen for sounds of more structural shifts in the economic and political order as well.
-
White papers
Adding to the debate: “Is the Fed behind the curve”?
Over the past few months, price hikes above expectations have prompted cohorts of investors to proclaim, “the Fed is behind the curve!” It is a well-known fact that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) statutory dual mandate is to target both price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
-
Podcast
Can Private Assets Provide Shelter From the Storm?
Head of Private Multi-Strategy Investing, John McNichols discusses how private asset portfolios can be constructed to help investors achieve diversification and manage risks from inflation and rising rates to geopolitical conflict.
-
White papers
Just What Will Break First?
Tighter policy will eventually tame prices, but it’s still hard to see a U.S. recession anytime soon.
-
White papers
More China Lockdowns May Bring More Slowdowns
China’s zero-COVID policy should be a significant headwind to growth, with its impact likely weighing more on consumption than production. Nevertheless, more logistical delays could disrupt manufacturing activity in the months ahead and add to global inflationary pressures.
