All Inflation articles
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White papersU.S. Economy: All Noise and No Signal?
Although the government shutdown has officially ended, economic observers and market participants have had over 40 days with virtually no official economic statistics from the government. Moreover, government data will likely still be affected even after the government reopens due to interruptions in the data collection process. The shutdown itself is expected to distort the data, as a significant number of federal workers saw no paychecks, reduced spending and filed for unemployment benefits (that need to be repaid).
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White papers2026 European Outlook - Navigating The Winds of Change
With inflation now close to central banks’ target levels, financial markets are not expecting any further rate cuts in the Eurozone. Increasing levels of government debt, US trade policy uncertainty and remaining inflation concerns continue to weigh on the bond markets and limit the chances of government bond yields’ tightening.
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White papersLooking past the chaos: the time for European real estate debt
The global commercial real estate market has undergone a profound transformation since mid-2022, with rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty driving a significant repricing of assets—capital values have corrected by approximately 20–25% across Europe, creating one of the most attractive entry points for real estate debt investment in over a decade. Our latest research reveals why over 60% of institutional investors are planning to increase their real estate debt allocations, exploring how this asset class offers compelling risk-adjusted returns with lower volatility than traditional alternatives and examining the regulatory tailwinds and improved lending standards that position real estate debt as a strategic portfolio diversifier in today’s market environment. Read the full report to discover why this represents a compelling opportunity for institutional investors.
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White papersFixed income 2026 Outlook
Learn the views of our fixed income CIO and key portfolio managers. Where now for the yield curve?
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White papersFixed Income Outlook: Why flexibility will be key for fixed income investors in 2026
Despite no shortage of challenges and obstacles, returns across fixed income asset classes have been largely positive in 2025, with income levels a major contributing factor.
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White papersFixed income in the new policy order
We see a continuation of the diversification trend seen in 2026. Fixed income investors may be underestimating the risk stemming from US expansionary fiscal policy. We see opportunities in inflation break-evens, and yield curve steepening later in the year. Quality credit becomes a core allocation for fixed income investors, thanks to sound fundamentals and a better risk-return profile compared to Treasuries. European bonds remain a key call for 2026, with a focus on peripheral bonds and investment grade credit, particularly in financials.
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White papersPioneering European Alternatives
Global black swan events, generally considered to be once-in-an-economic-cycle occurrences, have been disrupting investment markets with alarming frequency. In the past few years, we have experienced Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. Europe’s surge in inflation was significantly fueled by the economic shockwaves from the Ukraine crisis. The crisis significantly affected global energy and agricultural supply chains, driving up the cost of fuel, gas and essential commodities, which quickly fed through into consumer prices across the continent. In response to this inflationary shock, European central banks implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, shifting from historically low rates to multi-year highs.
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White papersBoE stays on hold, all eyes on budget now
At its November meeting, the BoE kept its policy rates unchanged at 4%. Policymakers noted that a deceleration in overall inflation is underway, favoured by a restrictive policy stance, softening labour market, and easing services inflation. Risks around achieving the bank’s 2% inflation target are more balanced, and downside risks from weak demand have grown. Looking ahead, we expect one rate cut in December and two more next year, although further actions may depend on incoming data.
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White papersMyth and Legends: European Broadly syndicated Loans
Broadly Syndicated Loans have grown over two decades, offering inflation protection through floating rates and diversification across sectors. Active management and due diligence are key to mitigating risks. Despite myths, European loans show resilience, strong returns, and market depth, with M&G’s long-standing fund exemplifying their potential.
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White papersIs the U.S. Shutdown Impact About to Hit?
While U.S. consumer sentiment has broadly held up, it may begin to crumble in certain segments, potentially impacting the sector at its most important time.
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White papersRetirement Accumulation Strategies with Real Assets and Inflation Risk
This article presents a comprehensive, dynamic asset allocation framework for retirement savings, extending the classical Merton model to include human capital. This framework reconciles the intuitive age-based glide path with financial theory, recognizing that total wealth consists of financial capital and the present value of future contributions.
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White papersThe ‘Disruptive Ds’ Powering Commodities Markets
Commodities exposure could help adapt diversified portfolios for a changing world—eight trends explain why.
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White papersTariff fallout milder than feared, for now
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF upgraded its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%. Global trade and financial conditions have proven resilient, helped by trade deals between the US and some of its trading partners. We believe the global trading system is bruised but not broken: roughly 70% of trade is flowing as before. An artificial intelligence–driven (AI) productivity upswing has also supported prospects for global growth.
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White papersGold beyond records
Gold has hit multiple record highs in 2025, recently surging past the $4,000 mark and climbing over 20% since mid-August. In our view, both cyclical and structural factors are contributing to this growth: growing unpredictability in macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes, demographic shifts, structurally higher demand from central banks (CBs), expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a weak dollar are all supporting factors, and most recently, higher political uncertainty with the US shutdown.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 4Q2025
As global monetary policy continues to moderate while trade and political strains persist, we are seeing decided changes in the fixed income landscape. In our view, U.S. investment grade bonds appear to offer less relative value than issues in Europe and elsewhere that may provide windows to capitalize on price dislocation. At the same time, the all-in yields provided by high yield and other sectors merit consideration despite tight credits spreads, albeit with an eye toward careful security selection.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q4 2025
Fixed Income Perspectives outlines the current macro and market views from across Capital Group’s extensive fixed income team and offers insights on investors’ bond exposure against an ever-changing backdrop.
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White papersBeyond emerging markets: unlocking benefits of frontier local currency debt
Frontier local currency debt is among the most overlooked corners of the global fixed income market, yet it offers a rare mix of diversification, yield, and - contrary to popular belief - relatively low volatility. Building on the familiar case for emerging market debt, frontier markets take investors a step further into smaller, less crowded economies that remain far off the radar of most global allocators. Few are better positioned for this challenge than Aktia’s Emerging Markets team, which has been managing the Aktia EM Frontier Bond+ strategy for nearly a decade.
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White papersEM debt: Cautious confidence in a shifting landscape
As we enter the final quarter of 2025, emerging market (EM) debt continues to demonstrate resilience against a complex global backdrop. Despite rising policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and evolving trade dynamics, EM debt has largely outperformed other fixed income asset classes so far this year. In this note, we evaluate the drivers behind EM debt’s strong returns, assess the sustainability of current trends, and outline the key risks and opportunities for the remainder of the year.
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White papersInvesting amid era-defining tech change and an expensive U.S. dollar
TIAA shares their outlook on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, strategic positioning amid dollar headwinds, and emerging opportunities driven by AI’s transformative impact on energy infrastructure and data centers, while navigating geopolitical risks and real estate recovery in an era of innovation and uncertainty.
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White papersInflation or employment? The Fed makes its choice
The scales have tipped in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) long-running balancing act between taming inflation and promoting full employment. With September’s quarter-point interest rate cut, the first such move in nine months, Fed officials appear to have made the labour market a key concern.
