All Inflation articles – Page 4
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White papersGlobal Risks 2025: Turning Points?
As the dust from the U.S. election settles, the new year brings new challenges. Tariffs are likely to be the dominant theme early in 2025. Our base case is for the incoming Trump administration to impose substantial — albeit not universal — tariffs on most countries.
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White papersFed 2025 outlook: A fragile balancing act
The Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance reflects a challenging economic backdrop heading into 2025. Sticky inflation, resilient growth, and uncertainty around the incoming administration’s policies have constrained the Fed’s ability to ease aggressively. While our forecast anticipates three rate cuts next year, the path forward will depend heavily on inflation progress and labor market conditions.
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White papersEasier financial conditions lift expectations of a recovery in commercial real estate
The outlook for the commercial real estate market has improved in 2024. Economic growth ticked up in early 2024 and although projections have been adjusted downwards during the second half of the year, the faster than expected reduction in inflation has had a positive effect on investor interest. Global central banks began to unwind their monetary policy tightening, beginning with the ECB in June, the Bank of England in August, and the US Federal Reserve in September.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2024
Topic of the Month: The German economy has been lagging behind other Eurozone countries due to structural changes in its economic model and global trade. A huge investment effort would be needed to relaunch it. Economists recommend making up the lost ground within ten years by making massive infrastructure investments.
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - December 2024
Inflation is coming down much faster than the ECB expected only last September, with the headline measure (2.2%) now inching very close to its target. The latest 25bp cut and its revised forecast on 12 December, suggest that the ECB should get to its target by mid-2025.
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White papers2025 Perspectives: Optimism through the obstacles
2025 arrives on the heels of remarkable resilience in global markets. However, investors face a world still shaped by uncertainty—from deglobalization and slowing growth in developed economies to resilient U.S. equities, elevated policy risks under the incoming Trump administration’s tariff threats, and persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. In 2025 Perspectives, our leading investment experts highlight the themes that will impact portfolios and drive market performance in the year ahead.
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White papersFixed income outlook: resilient US provides an anchor
The enduring resilience of the US economy will be a key driver of financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Having avoided recession, the US is returning to mid-cycle, according to economic data, while inflation has continued to ease back towards the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, enabling the central bank to begin cutting rates. We believe the Fed views monetary policy as restrictive and will likely continue lowering rates, albeit at a slower pace than previously expected.
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White papersECB: We’re not a “Jack of all Trades”
The ECB delivered another 25 bps cut at its December 2024 meeting, bringing the policy rate to 3.0% as inflation continues tracking to their 2% target, down from near 10% just over two years ago.
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PodcastConnecting the Dots: CIO 2025 outlook – and why growth’s the elephant in the room
With growth top of the agenda for investors moving into 2025, join M&G Investments’ CIOs for their outlook amid a number of macroeconomic effects at play. They deliberate on growth, the Trump presidency and tariffs given the potential implications for global geopolitics, inflation – and prospective market opportunities.
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White papers2025 Outlook: We have seen this movie before
As we head into 2025, it is hard not to notice several parallels with the past; it feels like we have seen this movie before.
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White papersLDI market trends – getting things in perspective
The two key barometers of market levels for LDI are long-term interest rates and long-term inflation expectations.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2025: Ready for Trump 2.0?
Looking ahead to 2025, the macro environment, in theory, sets the stage for a friendly backdrop in emerging markets (EM), especially given widespread disinflation, which should allow most major central banks to significantly ease rates throughout the year.
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PodcastOuterblue Research – Looking for clues ahead of a second Trump presidency
After a campaign full of twists and turns, November saw the re-election of Donald Trump for a second term as US president. In this edition, we take a look at the geopolitical and economic ramifications of a new Trump presidency.
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White papersFixed income: New challenges for the easing cycle
Following an extraordinarily friendly market for fixed income in 2024, our fixed income teams assess the outlook for 2025.
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White papersM&A in 2025: Opportunity, with a Side of Scrutiny
Governments, businesses and consumers all took advantage of a decade of free money. Bond markets are now multiple times larger than before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), having soared to record levels. Economic activity and most financial markets benefited. As central banks around the world swiftly raised interest rates to fight inflation, significant challenges are emerging, especially concerning the ability to refinance or repay substantial volumes of maturing debt.
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White papersTrumponomics to provide new twists in 2025
The US election and the radical economic programme President-elect Donald Trump has promised to implement will heavily influence macroeconomic developments in 2025. While much of the course of the year from an economic perspective is largely baked in, reflecting the existing momentum (or lack of) of the major economies, ‘Trumponomics’ will affect all and provide new twists.
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersThe Dollar and the Euro: On a Path to Parity?
Why we think it could take longer than expected, with better entry points still to come.
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White papersHas the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle been knocked off course?
The US Federal Reserve has the scope for one more rate cut in 2024. Will the latest inflation data make it pause?
