All Inflation articles – Page 4
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White papersReal Estate Outlook – Europe, Edition May 2024 A new cycle begins
We’ve come a long way from the highs of inflation and interest rates – and the ensuing capital value correction. A new cycle is in its infancy, but the effects of the last one still linger.
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White papersReal Estate Outlook – Global, Edition May 2024 Approaching the bottom
In the first three months of 2024 US economic growth was positive, but weaker than expected. GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 1.6% quarter on quarter (QoQ), a sharp downshift from the 3.4% annualized in 4Q23.
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White papers2024 midyear outlook: Widening cracks in the investment landscape
“Step on a crack, break your mother’s back” conjures up images of children playfully jumping over gaps between sidewalk squares. As grownups, we can indulge such youthful superstitions as harmless. As investors, however, we recognize the very real risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. This is the challenge we’re facing midway through 2024.
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White papersUS inflation is moderating
“Falling price pressures should be supportive of US government bonds and investors could also explore other quality fixed income assets in developed as well as emerging markets.”
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White papersUS elections: the Inflation Reduction Act and the risk of repeal
In November the US goes to the polls to decide who will be the next president – the Democrat incumbent Joe Biden or returning Republican nominee Donald Trump. Under Biden, in August 2022 the US introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a federal law which aims to, among other things, invest into domestic energy production while promoting clean energy. It represents the largest ever Congressional investment in the energy transition.
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White papersUnlocking infrastructure opportunities: Top 10 interview with Roland Hantke
Private infrastructure investments are increasingly gaining traction – and for many reasons. Considered a safe haven especially during inflation, infrastructure is receptive to many secular trends currently shaping the global economic scenario. What are these, and how should investors approach this multi-faceted asset class?
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White papersTailoring the Taylor Rule for a clearer steer on rates
What will happen to interest rates this year? We’ve developed a modified version of the Taylor Rule which might have the answers.
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White papersThe ECB initiates rate cuts after a long gap
“The ECB avoided any surprises for the markets as it reduced policy rates amid decelerating inflation, which could boost appetite for European fixed income.”
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White papersAdapting to a shifting liquidity backdrop
Many UK money market funds have been extending weighted average maturities as the BoE considers rate cuts.
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White papersIt All Rests on Infrastructure
We see the asset class underpinning several key growth megatrends, but also the return of “big government” and its pursuit of security and protectionism.
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White papers150-Year Analysis: What Happens to Equities When Inflation Strikes
The quick rise in consumer prices following the pandemic disrupted decades of low inflation globally and sparked equity volatility that investors still struggle to navigate. While inflation has settled down, it has stubbornly stayed above central banks’ targets of around 2%. High inflation can cut out the bulk of a portfolio’s return, making it a paramount concern for investors.
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White papersThe Structural Trends, Whoever Wins
Positioning for geopolitical shocks or election results is difficult, but we think the resulting structural trends are easier to identify and prepare for.
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White papersUS consumer price pressures are subsiding
“Declining US inflation is positive for US bonds, and investors should also keep a global approach to potentially benefit from attractive yields elsewhere, including in emerging markets.”
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White papersAsset-Based Finance: Private Credit’s Key Diversifier
Private capital is increasingly being used to finance consumer spending.
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White papersCyclical, structural, vintage: The outlook for real estate equity
High inflation and rising rates hit activity in real estate markets over the past year. But cautious optimism is now returning to the investment landscape in the UK and Europe, say Imogen Ebbs and George Fraser-Harding.
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White papersEconomic Monthly: Flying Blind
The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has reduced the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), the European Central Bank (ECB), and potentially even the Bank of England (BoE), could begin cuts as soon as next month, and the dot plot shows the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates later this year.
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White papersFundraising in infrastructure - A return to the market buzz
Sentiment for infrastructure was muted in 2023. Although very few investors we spoke to were outright negative on the asset class, most have taken a “wait and see” approach, especially given the denominator effect.
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White papersFixed Income – A new era for bonds
Surging inflation brought an end to the decade-long era of low bond yields. In the decade ahead, we believe bond yields will not return to the near-zero levels of the recent past or see the steady capital appreciation which marked the prior 30 years. Instead, our view is that inflation and real yields are more likely to remain closer to their long-term averages, supported by central bank policy, changing supply/demand dynamics, and the risk that inflation could spike again.
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - May 2024
Monthly Cross Asset - Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - May 2024
“We expect 75 bps of rate cuts in 2024 as monetary policy remains restrictive, growth will slow down, and inflation data do not alter our projections.”
