All Inflation articles – Page 3
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Podcast
Insurance in an Inflationary Age
With rising premiums and inflationary pressures, the insurance industry faces significant challenges.
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White papers
Capital market assumptions: 2024
Our 2024 expectations for annualised returns over the next 20 years (what we call our capital market assumptions) are a mixed bag. Strong gains across markets over the past year have tempered our expected returns for equities relative to our 2023 outlook. On the other hand, higher starting yields translate into improved expectations versus last year across many fixed income asset classes.
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White papers
Fixed Income Quarterly – Eurozone: Looking ahead to ECB action
Consumer and business confidence appear to be taking a turn for the better in the eurozone as inflation falls and expectations for interest rate cuts rise. These could help the economy avoid a significant recession.
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White papers
Net-zero equities: resilience in an uncharted transition
The year 2023 in some ways brought a return to normality: slowing inflation, stabilising interest rates and, to some extent, more stable energy prices than in 2022. These positive developments fueled the strong performance of equity markets.
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White papers
Is the “Vibe-cession” for US Consumers on Its Way Out?
Falling inflation hasn’t yet translated into good feelings among US consumers. Based on the latest data, that might be changing.
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White papers
History lessons for Europe’s central bankers
Consensus is suggesting Europe has solved its inflation problems and substantial rate cuts are imminent – but is this realistic given how far economists and markets underestimated the recent price surge and policy tightening?
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White papers
Fixed Income Quarterly – Crosscurrents in the US outlook
For 2024, we foresee several crosscurrents that could influence the outlook for US growth and inflation. Before we discuss those, let’s look at the demand and supply-side factors behind the remarkable resilience of the US economy in 2023.
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White papers
First Quarter 2024 Market Outlook
PGIM Fixed Income’s First Quarter 2024 Market Outlook
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White papers
Now may be the time for core bonds: Five themes for 2024
With inflation falling and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalling an end to its historic tightening cycle, the landscape for bond investors is beginning to look much clearer. Even after a sharp rally in late 2023, yields still look more attractive than they have in a decade.
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White papers
Will Hawks Still Rule the Roost at Europe’s Central Banks?
As European inflation rates converge with targets, markets expect rate cuts. But central banks are set on a decisive victory over inflation.
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White papers
Global Macro Outlook - First Quarter 2024
After two years of aggressive tightening, global central banks pivoted in December. We expect some growth in the coming quarters, albeit subdued compared to history. With inflation easing, most global economies are off to a good start for the year. Yet, things can, and do, change quickly.
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White papers
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - January 2024
Recent Q4 2023 inflation data in the Euro Area, UK and US, on net have surprised on the downside, with year-over-year (YoY) rates of headline inflation now standing at 2.9%, 3.9%, 3.4% respectively, prompting expectations of a faster than expected reversion to target.
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White papers
Europe: time for fiscal consolidation
The public finances of Eurozone countries began to improve in 2023 and fiscal consolidation will intensify in most Eurozone countries during 2024. Still, fiscal vulnerability – particularly for the most heavily-indebted countries – will rise over time, leading to a higher probability that public debt will not stabilise. The aim of the new fiscal rules is to ensure the longterm sustainability of public finances, but funding for the green transition could suffer.
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White papers
2024: A year to be active in infrastructure
Despite initial fears of recession and volatility in 2023 due to high rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, global equity markets returned an incredible 20% for the year overall.
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White papers
Jobs and inflation on market’s radar
Like in 2023, inflation figures will remain, in 2024, an important driver of market’s expectations regarding Fed rates decisions. Inflation has come down by a lot, but it is still above 2% and the latest reading shows a slowdown in the disinflationary trend.
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White papers
Central Bank Watch: Hold your horses
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI) Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten (G10) nations plus two additional countries (China and South Korea).
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White papers
Fixed Income Investment Outlook: 1Q 2024
Amid slower economic growth and more benign monetary policy, we believe that this year bond prices will be driven less by inflation and central bank policy and more by economic growth dynamics. Rather than seek to play the timing of interest rate reductions, we think it will be more effective to focus on the ultimate destination of rates and adapt portfolios accordingly.
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White papers
Outlook 2024: Prepare for changes in the investing climate
Heading into 2024, it is difficult to remember another time when the outlook was so uncertain. Recession or expansion? Inflation or deflation? Higher interest rates for longer or central banks preparing to pivot? Take your pick and you will find a pundit arguing for each scenario as if it was a foregone conclusion.
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White papers
2024 European logistics market outlook
Clarion Partners believes the European logistics market will remain undiminished in 2024 and could bring attractive opportunities for investors.
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White papers
Long-term Capital Market Expectations: Higher yields lift all boats
The Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team’s capital market expectations (CME) is designed to provide annualized return expectations over a longer-term horizon, typically viewed as 10 years.