All Inflation articles – Page 3
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2025
In the wake of an eventful quarter, we believe that more benign inflation data and softer but still positive growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts, joining other central banks that have maintained easing polices. While tepid, economic growth remains positive globally and, in the U.S., could improve toward the end of the year and into 2026. In this environment, we currently favor exposure to shorter-term U.S. Treasuries, as well as opportunities in high yield and local currency-denominated emerging market debt, with tariff-related volatility posing a key risk.
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White papersEnvisioning a post-Powell Fed: What comes next?
With characteristic directness, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction in recent weeks with the job performance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Serious or not, this kind of talk has investors speculating on what’s next for the US central bank and what a changing of the guard could mean for the economy and markets — whether that change comes at the end of Powell’s term as chair in May 2026 or sooner.
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White papersEuropean Bonds – Still More to Give
Benign inflation, a dovish central bank and healthy yields have helped boost the global attraction of European government bond and credit markets. With further monetary easing expected, European fixed income continues to look selectively compelling.
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White papersO’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha Monthly Letter: Positioning beyond the US
In June, global markets navigated a complex web of economic and geopolitical developments, creating a striking paradox: rising trade barriers and the ensuing risk of rising inflation on the one hand, and record-high equity performance on the other. Despite these tensions, recent data reveal a resilience in market sentiment.
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White papersUS fixed income – Reasons for concern
Developed market interest rates remained generally range bound in the second quarter. The US economy can be expected to pivot towards higher inflation and slower growth. Such a trajectory may well lead the US Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy in the third quarter, writes Olivier De Larouziere.
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White papersUS tariffs delayed to August
“The ongoing tariff-related uncertainty points to the transactional and unilateral approach of the United States that can complicate matters for policymakers around the world.”
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White papersHow private credit is proving its worth in a volatile environment
Geopolitical events and macro uncertainty are creating challenges for income investors. But with many different assets to choose from, how could private credit offer the flexibility and diversification benefits they seek?
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White papersWhy are credit spreads so tight?
1) Liquidity: This is the overriding factor, which is normally the case in markets. It is no surprise that markets are rallying like it’s QE, because this is QE! The Treasury General Account (TGA) has been run-off to the tune of c$500bn over the last few months driven by the U.S. hitting the debt ceiling. When this happens, the country is unable to raise enough debt to fund itself.
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White papersIndependence Day’s big tax bill
Ballooning US federal deficits will heighten investors’ concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy, pushing them to look for opportunities arising in other areas.
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White papersWhat keeps central banks awake in 2025?
Insights from the 31st UBS Reserve Management Seminar
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White papersShort duration: the advantages of a global remit
A wider range of opportunities can be unlocked via an approach encompassing multiple time zones and currencies, maximising potential overall returns.
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White papersPrivate Credit Outlook: Five Lessons Learned
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
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White papersWhat Lies Ahead in the Next 100 Days?
Amid global trade tensions and new questions about how economies will interact going forward, the path ahead lacks clarity. For now, uncertainty may play a lead role in how global economies and markets perform-until the fog begins to clear.
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White papersFixed Income Outlook: Navigating cycles of uncertainty
After a turbulent start to the year marked by shifting central bank signals, renewed geopolitical tensions, and disruptive tariff announcements from the Trump administration, fixed income markets are entering the second half of 2025 with cautious resilience.
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White papers2025 Mid-Year Global Investment Outlook The Bell Can’t Be Unrung: Finding Opportunity in the Midst of Uncertainty
Uncertainty aside, global opportunities are taking shape for those who know where to look.
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White papersThe Fed’s strategic pause: the calm before the cuts
In its June meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates, pointing to ongoing tariff-related uncertainties. Nevertheless, the Fed indicated that two rate reductions remain probable before year-end.
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White papersJune FOMC meeting: Ignore the dot plot in this uncertain environment
The Fed held rates steady at 4.25 – 4.50% in June and Chair Powell emphasized that, amid elevated uncertainty, the dot plot projections shouldn’t be taken as commitments—signaling a cautious, data-dependent pause for now.
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White papersBond outlook: Income potential intact as economic risks rise
The bond market is well positioned to provide investors with attractive income potential and relative stability, should equity markets swing lower in the second half of the year. Given slowing US economic growth and cooling inflation, bonds should offer a smoother ride for investors amid high uncertainty over US trade and immigration policies, rising debt levels and worsening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
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White papersUS inflation less than expected
“US CPI has been slowing. However, uncertainty on US tariffs and rising tensions between Israel and Iran, which could keep oil prices high, may make central banks job more difficult.”
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White papersThe world rethinks (not rejects) US debt
Based on the “Fixed focus: Navigating the new era of income” session at Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong
