All Inflation articles – Page 3
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White papersDiversification in times of uncertain markets
Over the past week, markets have experienced extreme uncertainty caused by US policy gyrations on tariffs. This uncertainty has started to weigh on US assets, including the dollar and US Treasuries. Despite the 90-day pause announced on 9 April, the US average tariff rate remains at a 100-year high, with rising US tariffs on China triggering retaliation from the latter.
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White papersThe Tale of Tariffs Round Two for the US Economy
How might the recently announced US trade measures translate into economic reality?
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White papersWhat do tariffs mean for emerging market debt?
At this point, it is challenging to determine the precise impact of tariffs on EM economic activity as there are too many moving parts, including the possibility of negotiated reductions, retaliatory actions by US trading partners, and fluctuations in the currencies of affected economies. That said, we can look at the current level of tariffs and exports to the US to give us an idea about the portion of EM GDP that is at risk.
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White papersTrump’s Tariffs: The Impact on Fixed Income
New tariffs could hamper U.S. economic growth and change market dynamics for the long term.
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PodcastOuterblue Talks Research - Seat belts fastened for the global economic rewire
The market roller coaster continues. After riding a wave of optimism in Europe in the wake of the German fiscal bazooka to increase defence spending, the confirmation of US tariffs sent markets suddenly plunging. What will be the economic impact of Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs?
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White papersTariffs explained: Assessing global economic impact
The much-anticipated “Liberation Day” on 2 April has provided investors with more details on the direction of US trade policy under the Trump administration. Despite hopes of a more moderate approach, the tariffs were much more substantial than expected, raising the prospect of lower economic growth, higher inflation and interest rate cuts.
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White papersTrump’s tariffs – A paradigm change
In the absence of major revisions, the latest US import tariffs are a stagflationary shock for the US economy, potentially derailing growth and raising recession risks. A major risk-off move is now underway as financial markets move to a completely new interpretation of ‘US exceptionalism’.
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White papersGold at a time of tariffs and trade war
“Gold prices should remain supported by demand for safe-haven assets, amid a threat of trade war, tariffs and their economic fallout.”
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White papersAvoiding the thorns
The bond market is a rational voice amid the panic caused by Trump’s tariffs.
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White papersSelf-fulfilling prophecy?
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
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White papersThe macro fallout from ‘Liberation Day’
The sweeping tariff hikes announced on “Liberation Day” have escalated fears of stagflation, pushing recession odds higher and rattling markets. With inflation likely to rise and GDP growth projected to drop by up to 2.4%, the economic strain could be the most significant since the 1930s. Still, investor sentiment may recover as attention shifts toward pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation.
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White papersLiberation Day: Market uncertainty, global growth concerns, and U.S. recession fears
The U.S. announced sweeping new tariffs—some exceeding 50%—shocking markets and sharply raising the risk of recession and stagflation. With inflation likely to rise and GDP growth to fall by an estimated 2.5%, investors are now eyeing potential fiscal offsets like tax cuts and deregulation. Until clarity emerges, risk assets may stay under pressure as global economies brace for the fallout.
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White papersMarkets shaken by new US tariffs as growth expectations deteriorate
US President Donald Trump announced a wave of new tariffs on 2 April, which he branded ‘Liberation Day’, arguing they would help boost the US economy. Trump introduced a new baseline 10% US tax on goods from all countries and higher reciprocal tariffs for nations which the US government believe have high barriers to US imports. The US government is expected to impose the reciprocal tariffs on around 60 of the “worst offenders” from 9 April.
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White papersFixed-Income Outlook: Six Strategies to Thrive in Turbulent Times
Since mid-January, a new political regime in Washington has shaken the geopolitical landscape and global markets. In this volatile environment, bonds have performed well, resuming their traditional role as ballast against falling stock prices and attracting strong demand from investors.
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White papersThe direction of long term rates in an era of high debt
Real interest rates have been on a secular decline since the mid-1980s but have corrected sharply higher since the Covid pandemic, higher inflation and the end of central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE). Now, public debt is much higher and there are new demands for funding (e.g., for defence and net zero ambitions), which should argue for structurally higher long-term interest rates.
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White papers“Wait and Worry” or “Wait and See”?
U.S. consumers aren’t happy, but U.S. executives don’t share their gloom.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2025
Tariffs and trade policies can produce global growth volatility through direct economic effects and investment decisions, which could then translate into global financial market volatility. This could potentially add consumer stress and even impact consumers in the higher-income cohorts who have been less impacted by ongoing, above-target, inflation.
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White papersWill economic uncertainty knock the Fed off course?
The US Federal Reserve (Fed), once the primary driver of markets, has taken a back seat this year to government actions and politics. So far, it’s been a bumpy ride.
