Content (1141)
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White papersTail risks to watch
We see geopolitical risks persisting as a base-case scenario for 2025. Below we share the main upside and downside risks to our base case that investors should take into consideration.
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White papersThe Fed’s dilemma
Recent inflation numbers are in line with a short pause in the path towards the Fed’s target, yet bond yields have moved sharply higher since the Fed’s big cut. Medium-term inflation expectations – including FOMC member expectations – have moved higher (see chart), but most of the increase in ten-year yields since the election reflects a rise in real rates.
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White papersFocus on China
Investors learned the hard way that, without belief in fundamentals, one can still make money in China. Over the summer of 2024, the prevailing sentiment was ‘ABC’ (Anything But China) – a full-blown existential crisis framing China as an uninvestable asset class. In late September, China equities rallied an average of 25% on the back of official talk, triggering a widespread ‘buy everything’ sentiment, as the fear of missing out spread across the market.
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White papersInflation in focus ahead of Trump’s inauguration
“In the Trump 2.0 administration, the fiscal outlook and inflation expectations will be the main market themes to watch.”
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White papersAfter two strong years, what will 2025 bring?
“2025 will continue to offer opportunities and investors will need to assess the impact of Trump’s policies.”
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White papersBond yields on the rise
Bond yields started the year with strong upward moves, and reached close to the highs seen in April last year. This latest upward trend, which has been evident from September amid Trump’s election campaign and his eventual victory, has been partly driven by resilience in the US economy.
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White papersThe Patchwork of Eurozone Pension Systems and Budget Constraints
The issue of pension systems in Eurozone countries is significant because pension outlays represent a substantial portion of GDP. And an ageing population increases financing needs. At the same time, country deficits – and consequently debt – have deepened during the Covid period, including through higher interest rates.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - January 2025
A semblance of a goldilocks ahead of Trump’s inauguration
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White papersFed and ECB cut rates, BoJ and BOE on hold
“The Fed’s hawkish tone signals that the Central Bank is incorporating a more uncertain outlook. This calls for keeping a tactical approach to bond investing.”
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White papersPrivate markets poised to benefit from new strategic landscape
Asset managers are facing growing demand from institutional investors to develop sophisticated private market strategies that balance high long-term risk-adjusted target returns, added diversification benefits, and fundamental value creation.
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White papersArtificial intelligence for sustainable finance: why it may help
Developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning have led to the creation of a new type of ESG data that do not necessarily rely on information provided by companies.
