Content (1386)
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White papersCapital Market Assumptions 2026
The global economy is moving through a structural regime shift characterised by geo-economic fragmentation, climate risks from a delayed energy transition, and the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Countries are increasingly pivoting towards strategic autonomy to adapt to this new regime.
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White papersAI Boom or Bubble? Lessons from the Dot-Com Period
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence has led investors to question whether the recent rally in AI-related stocks is a sign of a speculative bubble. This paper compares the current AI driven market to the dot-com boom of the late 1990s.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2026
Topic of the month - Asia and the energy shock
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White papersAsia and the energy shock
Asia is exposed to the Middle East conflict and the resulting rise in oil and gas prices. Most countries in the region are net energy importers (Malaysia is a notable exception). Even if the pass‑through to headline inflation remains limited, sustaining cost‑of‑living support to shield household purchasing power will be expensive for governments.
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White papersGold: a correction driven by positioning, not fundamentals
Gold has undergone a meaningful sell-off in recent weeks, but we believe the move has been driven more by a repricing of short-term macro fears than by any deterioration in the metal’s medium-term fundamentals.
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White papersThe energy test for European sectors
We believe that European companies’ Q1 earnings should remain relatively robust.
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White papersShifting war realities affect markets
Oil price and equity movements over the past weeks suggest how quickly markets can shift from an overly pessimistic to an overly optimistic scenario and vice versa. This reinforces our view that investors should maintain long-term convictions and avoid areas of high concentration risks.
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White papersCrisis highlights diversification
The year-to-date has been characterised by a series of geopolitical events. While markets largely shrugged off the US military action in Venezuela, the war in the Middle East triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, with knock-on effects across global markets.
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White papersConflict affecting sentiment
The Eurozone March PMI survey fell during the previous month, indicating businesses are getting worried about the Middle East conflict.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - April 2026
With the Middle East conflict now entering its second month, high energy prices have produced knock-on effects across global financial markets. The US and European breakeven curves surged as markets repriced inflation expectations and the likelihood of central-bank rate cuts.
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White papersOut of the Black Box: Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs via Conditional Probabilities
Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on preceding context. We leverage these conditional probabilities to construct an entropy-based measure of prediction uncertainty, which we term inner confidence. Predictions with higher inner confidence are systematically more accurate.
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White papersModeling and Forecasting of Large Unbalanced Option Implied Volatility Surfaces
Forecasting the option implied volatility (IV) surface is difficult with standard time-series models because of its time-varying granularity. We propose a new two-step real-time sequential forecasting framework. The first step fits the daily surface and can accommodate any underlying specification for option prices or IVs, including dynamic option-pricing models, nonparametric methods, and machine-learning techniques. In the second step, we sequentially estimate a dynamic IV model using an updating rule.
