Content (1192)
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White papersEurope in focus amidst fiscal boost
“President Trump’s approach to trade and global alliances may be a wake up call for Europe. The region is signalling a clear and a historical shift, which will require target measures to boost growth efficiently.”
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White papersEmpowering transformation in Europe
Europe is facing major economic and security challenges. The European Commission (EC) has started translating the Draghi report’s recommendations into effective proposals.
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White papersThe direction of long term rates in an era of high debt
Real interest rates have been on a secular decline since the mid-1980s but have corrected sharply higher since the Covid pandemic, higher inflation and the end of central banks’ Quantitative Easing (QE). Now, public debt is much higher and there are new demands for funding (e.g., for defence and net zero ambitions), which should argue for structurally higher long-term interest rates.
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White papersEquity sectors: a mix of Growth and Value to navigate the challenges ahead
We see three themes shaping sector returns in the coming decade. Artificial intelligence (AI) will support the Information Technology (IT) sector followed by Healthcare, but it is due to extend to others as well. Regarding climate change and geopolitical dynamics, capital expenditure (Capex) will play a more important role than consumption, benefitting Industrials more than the Consumer Staples and Discretionary sectors. Finally, policies supporting deregulation should improve capital efficiency and shareholder returns, to the benefit of Financials.
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White papersDemographics will shape future growth potential
Three trends that will shape the macro-financial landscape
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White papersThe global economy’s path in a fragmented world
With the world on the brink of significant structural changes, projecting the long-term macroeconomic scenario for 2025-2050 presents unique challenges. It is crucial to identify emerging trends while evaluating the acceleration of existing ones.
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White papersCapital Market Assumptions 2025
A more favourable growth outlook for the next decade compared to last year’s assumptions, albeit with greater uncertainty regarding inflation which is set to remain slightly above central bank targets, results in higher expected returns across the spectrum of asset classes covered. Expectations have been revised upwards for regional equity markets and private assets in particular, with Private Equity, Infrastructure, and European equities showing the strongest improvements.
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WebinarTime for Europe: Unlocking Europe’s Investment Potential
Register now: Tuesday 8th April, 2025 - 09:00am BST | 10:00am CEST
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White papersNavigating climate risk: Solvency II revision, stress tests and strategic adaptation
A critical challenge: climate change represents a major challenge for insurers, driven by the increasing frequency of natural disasters and the need to manage risks associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy.
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White papersSwap spreads: analysis, challenges and outlook
Swap spreads, key indicators of liquidity stress and risk aversion, play a crucial role for insurers. Beyond measuring price differentials between sovereign and corporate bonds, they directly influence hedging decisions, asset-liability management (ALM) strategies and insurer returns under Solvency II.
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White papersCentral banks on hold as uncertainty mounts
The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged in the 4.25-4.50% range at its March policy meeting. Citing risks around elevated uncertainty from trade policies, the Fed prefers to wait and see given that the uncertainty is “remarkably high”.
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White papersTopic Modeling with AI Tools
We present a robust topic modeling framework that mitigates overfitting while capturing the evolving nature of discourse. Our approach proposes a dynamic, temporal network-based model that adapts to emerging topics while maintaining semantic stability through alignment with predefined themes.
