Content (1242)
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White papers
NATO pledges for more defence outlay
“Renewed security challenges in a fragmented world indicate that Europe must strengthen its strategic autonomy. NATO’s latest declaration to raise defence spending may present such an opportunity for the region.”
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White papers
The evolving Israel-Iran conflict
Over the weekend, the United States launched airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites, Iran responded on Monday by launching missiles at the US’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The missiles were shot down and resulted in no casualties – Trump thanked Iran ‘for giving us early notice’. Following these developments, on Monday, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced, but as of now, it remains unclear if it will hold. The weakened Iranian regime faces growing pressure.
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White papers
Shinning a light on share remuneration
Share buybacks have become a standard corporate tool in achieving capital efficiency. In a share buyback, a company buys its own shares from existing shareholders, and thereby distributing capital to them in an alternative way to dividends. The practice was banned in the US until the early 1980’s when SEC formally set out the regulation, and eventually it spread globally. This growth has taken place despite some concerns that share buybacks were being used for management’s personal gain at the expense of long-term growth. Critics have also suggested that they have dampened innovation and encouraged excessive leverage levels.
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White papers
Geopolitics fuels a surge in oil
“A sustained rise in oil prices could complicate central banks’ efforts to tame inflation and manage growth, given the already uncertain environment surrounding US tariffs and international trade.”
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White papers
US enters Israel-Iran conflict
Over the weekend, the United States launched airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions in the Middle East. While the full extent of the damage remains unclear, we expect Iran to retaliate, though likely in a manner aimed at avoiding deeper US involvement.
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White papers
Mid-year Investment Outlook 2025
“Despite unpredictable policymaking, business resilience, and the reorganisation of global trade and financial systems, the expected rate cuts from central banks will create opportunities in global equities. We are focusing on themes such as European defence spending, US deregulation, corporate governance reform in Japan, and the ‘Make in India’ initiative.”
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White papers
Ride the policy noise and shifts
A rewiring of the global economy is forcing investors and policymakers to proceed with caution. Such prudence is justified. There may be superficial parallels with the trade shock delivered by the pandemic, but limited lessons can be drawn from the temporary disruptions that occurred at the start of the decade. Today, the US administration’s approach to commerce, security and international relations is ushering in structural changes that will outlast its tenure.
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White papers
Private diversification still attractive
“Private markets: infrastructure and private debt will likely continue to attract flows and may deliver performance. A bottoming process should gain traction for real estate and private equity over H2.”
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White papers
India and EM are winners of the rerouting shift
We maintain a positive outlook on emerging market (EM) equities for H2 2025, driven by recovering macro momentum, stabilising inflation, and central banks on an easing path. While growth remains positive and earnings decelerate to low single digits, the key narrative is the fading US exceptionalism, highlighted by a weakening dollar and declining trust in US policy, which enhances the attractiveness of EM through repatriation and diversification flows.
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White papers
The Great Diversification is underway
We are now firmly in the riskier, messier, more factious world we predicted. While the US president is not the cause of the geopolitical shifts underway over the last few years, his administration is accelerating some drivers. For example, tariffs are intensifying economic friction, while the reduction of US commitments to Europe’s security and ambitions in space are contributing to a new arms race. The US, under Trump, also emerged as an additional disruptor.
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White papers
US inflation less than expected
“US CPI has been slowing. However, uncertainty on US tariffs and rising tensions between Israel and Iran, which could keep oil prices high, may make central banks job more difficult.”
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Podcast
Global Investment Views - Tracking the U-turns amid rising yields
Join our host, Swaha Pattanaik, as she sits down for her regular catch-up with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to give our perspective on the markets, analyse the trends and share our investment views for the weeks ahead.