All Commentary articles
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Podcast
Outerblue Convictions – H2 24 Outlook – It’s all about confidence
A lot has happened in global economies, markets and geopolitics in the last six months. This outlook special looks back at what has happened in 2024 to date, how this has impacted markets, and what we should expect for the second half of the year. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss why they think the current environment really is “all about confidence”.
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White papers
Are We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE
Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
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White papers
Mid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
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White papers
Investment outlook
At the midpoint of 2024, we are focused on a number of risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. Weakening global growth, still-sticky inflation, diverging monetary policy around the globe and growing political uncertainty all add to the uncertain footing. How might investors find their away around these cracks? In our view, the following portfolio themes point in the right direction.
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White papers
Megatrends: Transformative technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), specifically generative AI (GenAI), is poised to affect virtually every sector of the global economy and transform the workforce.
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White papers
On My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
In this “On My Mind,” I want to focus on the US fiscal outlook, its relationship to inflation, and the implications for interest rates and bond yields. Let’s start with a snapshot of the US federal govern ment’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades. For the first half of this period, fiscal policy looked fairly prudent, and the deficit averaged slightly more than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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White papers
Five-year investment outlook
Our analysis shows the dispersion of returns across domestic equity and bond markets will decline over the next five years. This suggests investors should consider investing across sectoral lines and allocate more of their capital to corporate bonds.
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White papers
Real Estate Debt: Navigating the New Frontier
Commercial mortgages are at the intersection of evolving capital market conditions, shifting real estate fundamentals and complex regulatory landscapes.
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Podcast
Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Trends steering markets
It’s been a busy month for central bank interest rate decisions, but while the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank have chosen to cut rates, the Federal Reserve is still pondering the timing of its next move.
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White papers
UK election delivers no-drama outcome
Britain’s Labour Party returned to power for the first time in 14 years after winning a large majority in parliamentary elections that were held on July 4. Labour, led by Keir Starmer, won more than 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, while the Conservative Party suffered its worst-ever performance.
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White papers
Policy and Politics
The first-quarter inflation bump is behind us, but the risks of a monetary policy error and electoral shocks have risen. While we believe the fundamental economic outlook for the next 12 – 18 months remains positive for risky assets, the potential for monetary policy errors and election-related volatility overshadows the coming months. These risks prevent the AAC from taking a more overweight view on risky assets, and keep us focused on quality assets and portfolio balance.
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White papers
Equity Outlook: Making Way for the Magnificent Others
Despite narrow market concentration, we see opportunities in high-quality stocks that haven’t yet been rewarded. Global stocks posted healthy gains in the first half of 2024, although second-quarter performance moderated from the previous quarter’s breakneck pace. With inflation still sticky and equity returns concentrated, the time may be right for investors to broaden their horizons.
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White papers
In conversation with Fabiana Fedeli
An ‘optimist who plans for the worst,’ Fabiana was named one of the 100 Most Influential Women in Finance in 2022 by Financial News. Here, M&G Investments’ Chief Investment Officer for Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability, tells Antonia Oprita about her love for markets and why she thinks of herself as a ‘data junkie’.
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Asset Manager News
Actis Publishes First TCFD Report With Climate Scenario Analysis Across 225 Asset Locations And 10 Sectors
Actis, a leading global investor in sustainable infrastructure, has published its first Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Report, which aims to inform and deepen understanding of climate risks and opportunities across its portfolio.
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White papers
How can human-robot interactions benefit financial decision-making?
“Our research showed that after using the robo-advisor, individuals were more inclined to invest in equities and follow the robo’s recommendations in rebalancing their portfolios towards their target allocations. These enhanced choices led to higher risk-adjusted returns.”
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White papers
SDG Engagement Equity Q2 2024 case study: Eagle Materials
Our Q2 case study looks at leading US cement manufacturer Eagle Materials. At the present time, the manufacture of cement accounts for 1.25% of CO2 emissions in the US. But as we outline, Eagle is well positioned to drive change and is implementing measures that should support decarbonisation in the industry.
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Podcast
Steve Eisman: From The Big Short to the Long Way Home
In 2008, the housing market crash sent shockwaves through the financial industry and the world at large. However, a handful of investors saw the warning signs and began sounding the alarms long before the financial debacle unfolded.
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Video
The role of natural capital in long-term savings
Our natural capital journey—as the world’s largest investment manager of natural capital assets,* Manulife Investment Management’s Global Head of Institutional Colin Fitzgerald shares how nearly 40 years of experience has refined our understanding of natural capital’s potential for addressing critical environmental challenges, and why these long duration assets are a natural fit for insurance companies and pension funds.
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Video
EOS 20th anniversary: stewardship reflections
In celebration of EOS’ 20th anniversary, Leon Kamhi reflects on the changes he has seen in stewardship over the years and his vision for the future.
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White papers
IPM monthly blog – Edition June 2024: Our monthly insights into private markets
Commencement of interest rate cuts to support market