China: pressure before parley

Key takeaways

• Beijing’s approach to the trade war has shifted dramatically; where it once favoured restraint and dialogue in Trump’s first term, it now responds with decisive retaliation.
• Washington’s drumbeat of ‘strategic decoupling’ has strained trust, leading Beijing to adopt a more guarded and hesitant stance toward engagement, lowering the odds of meaningful negotiation.
• Facing multiple contingencies, Beijing will likely lean towards an all-weather strategy: calibrating domestic economic buffers, expanding Global South partnerships, and selectively engaging with U.S. allies—while deprioritizing deals with Washington.

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