All United States articles
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White papers“Wait and Worry” or “Wait and See”?
U.S. consumers aren’t happy, but U.S. executives don’t share their gloom.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2025
Tariffs and trade policies can produce global growth volatility through direct economic effects and investment decisions, which could then translate into global financial market volatility. This could potentially add consumer stress and even impact consumers in the higher-income cohorts who have been less impacted by ongoing, above-target, inflation.
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White papersThe cascade effect of DeepSeek
An examination of DeepSeek’s success and how we believe it energizes Chinese innovation and changes the future of the global AI race
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White papersEuropean Renaissance
A broadening of equity market performance beyond U.S. mega-caps was one of our key themes for 2025—right now, Europe is where it is playing out most notably.
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PodcastCould Value Stocks Make a Comeback?
As markets grapple with changing macroeconomic dynamics, elevated valuations for growth stocks, and increased volatility, the spotlight could be turning towards value equities. Could this be the moment for US large-cap value investing to shine? How should investors think about diversification amidst the dominance of mega-cap growth names, and where are the most compelling opportunities in today’s market?
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White papersA Return to Uncertainty
We believe that even though 2025 is off to a rough start, firms and consumers will continue to adapt, and growth will stabilize over the year. Many of the negative impacts of lower activity in the beginning of the year (weaker consumer spending, weaker consumer confidence and high imports to front-run tariffs) are idiosyncratic and have the potential to be offset in subsequent quarters, resulting in overall growth that is healthy, albeit weaker than 2024.
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White papersQT or Not QT – Part Two
In the previous part of “QT or not QT” we discussed how the Federal Reserve balance sheet needs to change as it approached an optimal level. The final step, discussed by participants in the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, is to structure securities purchases in a way that would move the composition of the SOMA portfolio closer to the composition of outstanding Treasury debt. What would that mean for the current portfolio?
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White papersPositive mood in Emerging Markets
“The weakness in U.S. stocks reinforces our conviction that a rotation away from expensive U.S. large-cap stocks may persist. We also believe there is more value to be explored in regions such as emerging markets, including China.”
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White papersRecession risks: Weighing policy uncertainty and market volatility
The U.S. economy faces pressure from tariffs, slower growth, and high valuations, unsettling markets and investors. A recession isn’t inevitable, though—strong consumer and corporate balance sheets and possible Fed support could help. While risks have grown, a recession shouldn’t be seen as the base case, but it also shouldn’t be ruled out.
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White papersMr. Trump Goes to Washington
The new U.S. administration has promised many pro-growth policies, but can those ambitions survive the disruptive measures of its early months?
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White papersRebalancing Act: Rethinking Growth Versus Value
Heading into 2025, a handful of mega-cap tech companies had tilted the U.S. public equity markets meaningfully into growth territory. Recent gyrations have revealed the potential risk in such positioning, and offered yet more evidence for why we believe it is time to rebalance portfolios by increasing exposure to value.
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White papersThe M&A Resurgence: Finding Opportunities in Fixed Income
After years of limited activity, companies are looking for a chance to accelerate M&A, but the new administration and its policies will likely set the tone for dealmaking.
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PodcastEmerging Markets Debt in a Trump 2.0 World
How can investors make sense of the macro and geopolitical headlines that are coming fast and furious? Ricardo Adrogue and Cem Karacadag join the Streaming Income podcast to help parse signal from noise.
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White papersConfronting the risk of a policy-driven recession
U.S. recession risks have risen amid policy shocks, severe tariff proposals, and elevated uncertainty, all weighing on growth and sentiment. While a slowdown appears likely, resilient fundamentals and potential future support measures suggest a 2025 recession is not yet a foregone conclusion.
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PodcastOuterblue Talks Research - US fixed income - Early pain, later gain?
Less than 2 months back in the White House, US president Donald Trump has packed in a great deal; Shifts in policy, tariffs, federal employment, not to mention a huge change in approach to foreign policy. This month, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Jonathan Duensing, Head of Fixed Income at Amundi US, and Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro with the Amundi Investment Institute, to try to guide us through the present uncertainty in the markets.
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White papersGlobal Living Reimagined
The current housing supply shortage and affordability crisis is very real—and it’s also global. By Hines’ estimates, the global housing market across a group of key developed economies that Hines Research analyzes tells us that we need a net 6.5 million housing units to meet current demand. This lack of supply has caused a global affordability crisis, putting many major markets out of reach for potential homebuyers. One important and potentially unexpected outcome has been a pronounced global proclivity to rent: Over 80% of households in the developed economies we analyzed were in country markets showing clear momentum for renting over buying.
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White papersFebruary jobs report: A sanguine number… for now
The February jobs report showed a 151,000-worker increase in payrolls, broadly in line with consensus expectations, defying fears of significant cracks in the labor market. Yet, while the worst fears were not met, the report did confirm that the labor market is cooling. Furthermore, with no shortage of headwinds confronting the U.S. economy, including federal government layoffs, public spending cuts, and tariff uncertainty-related inertia, the softening trend will likely persist and potentially deepen in the coming months.
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White papersTrade tensions: Navigating market risks
Escalating trade tensions are injecting fresh volatility into markets. The U.S. trade deficit, which remains sizable with key partners like China, Mexico, and Europe, underscores the stakes in ongoing trade disputes. However, while tariffs could increase costs and disrupt supply chains, history suggests that markets adapt over time. A well-diversified portfolio remains the best defense against short-term uncertainty.
