All United States articles
-
White papersUS midterm elections may be closer than expected
With the US midterm elections just around the corner, I am asked multiple times a day by colleagues, clients and friends how I think this pivotal contest is going to turn out. It’s my job after all to provide political analysis and public-policy research to Capital Group’s investment team — with an emphasis on analysis, not advocacy, as I always stress.
-
White papersGrowth is Fundamental
The U.S. economy continues to expand at a moderate pace despite geopolitical uncertainty, trade friction, and renewed inflation pressure. The key story remains the AI-led investment cycle, which is now an important driver of business spending and broader economic activity.
-
White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2026
Topic of the Month - US midterm elections: fiscal gridlock on the horizon?
-
White papersUS midterm elections: fiscal gridlock on the horizon?
US midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with 33 regular Senate seats.
-
White papersThe market is the economy: Reflexivity and the monoculture of markets
The market has effectively become the economy it once merely served. Barry Gill argues that a supposedly diversified portfolio may now simply be a single leveraged AI bet.
-
White papersEquity Outlook 4Q 2026: Rising Rates Shift the Balance of Risks
We believe a combination of higher yields, potential earnings growth pressure and overall market fragility has shifted the balance of risks. While we remain constructive on global equities, more caution appears warranted.
-
White papersU.S. Real Estate Sector Report
Stay ahead in real estate with our U.S. sector report. Discover market trends, sector performance, and future forecast now.
-
White papersThe next chapter for global office
The global office market is moving past its post-pandemic malaise and is engaged in the early stages of recovery. Leasing activity is improving, transaction markets are beginning to reopen, credit is increasingly available, and capital values are stabilizing across a growing number of markets.
-
White papersWhy the US economy is stronger than you might think
If you had told me a year ago that the United States would be waging an intractable war in the Middle East, oil prices would rise to more than $100 a barrel, interest rates would be moving sharply higher, and inflation would be running well above 3%, my forecast for the US economy would have been gloomy to say the least.
-
Asset Manager NewsHines Announces Next Generation Leadership to Build on Global Real Assets Momentum
Adam Hines to join Laura Hines-Pierce as Co-CEO; David Steinbach named President; Alfonso Munk named Global CIO
-
White papersChips and Frack: How the AI Boom Rhymes with the US Shale Cycle
Few investors would naturally put artificial intelligence data centers and US shale oil in the same frame. One is built on advanced semiconductors and software; the other on rock, steel and drilling rigs. But the economic pattern is familiar. A breakthrough changes what is possible, demand outruns supply, attractive profit pools emerge and capital floods in. Then capacity expands, costs fall and competition tests which businesses have durable advantages.
-
White papersThe USD bear case faces a monetary-policy test
We entered 2026 expecting expensive valuations and Fed easing, alongside an administration increasingly focused on limiting the cost of financing a deteriorating fiscal position. Together, these conditions were expected to gradually normalise the USD.
-
White papers(Re-)Industrial Demand Drivers
In the latest issue of the AFIRE Summit Journal, Lincoln Janes explores the reindustrialization of the U.S. economy, examining how reshoring, AI infrastructure investment and increased defense spending are creating new sources of industrial real estate demand.
-
White papersHealthy Labor Market in the Face of AI
Despite ongoing concerns around inflation, tariffs, geopolitical tensions and AI-related disruption, the U.S. labor market remains more resilient than many expected. Our latest Macro Strategy outlook explores several underappreciated trends shaping employment today and what they could mean for growth, inflation and markets going forward.
-
White papersWhen Capital Is No Longer Free: Rising U.S. Treasury Yields and the Repricing of Global Assets
The level of U.S. federal debt is frequently cited as evidence of an approaching fiscal crisis, but I think that conclusion is too simplistic. Yes, a publicly held debt load of around 101% of GDP1 is historically high and clearly warrants attention, but I do not believe the level itself is necessarily problematic.
-
White papersThe expanding role of investment grade private credit in institutional portfolios
U.S. investment grade private corporate credit, debt issued directly to a small group of institutional lenders rather than sold on the public bond market, is seeing increased interest from asset allocators. The market predates the below-investment grade direct lending market by decades, driven largely by life insurers as a core fixed income allocation.
-
White papersCommercial real estate under higher inflation and interest rates
Why the interaction between inflation and real rates matters more than either variable alone
-
White papersThe Fed raises policy rates
“The Fed’s September hike was primarily an insurance and credibility measure. Significant geopolitical uncertainty and scrutiny from bond markets could influence its actions going forward.”
-
White papersFed rate hike: Three views on what’s next
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point this month marks a significant shift in monetary policy as the central bank seeks to dampen war-induced inflationary pressures. Although it is the first time the Fed has hiked rates since July 2023, in some respects it represents a return to normal after many years of artificially low borrowing costs.
-
White papersPositioning portfolios for higher long-term interest rates
Whether long-term interest rates will remain above their post pandemic high is an open question. The 10-year Treasury rate hit highs of 4.98% in October 2023 and 4.77% in January 2025. For those concerned about duration exposures and the valuation impact of higher rates on financial assets in general, real estate credit may offer a useful tool for managing this exposure.
