All United States articles
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White papers
Biden’s exit from the presidential race opens a phase of uncertainty
Biden exit from the race: Current US President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he will not seek re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Senior members of the Democratic party have expressed their support for Kamala Harris. Donations for the campaign have begun to rise after Biden’s decision.
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White papers
Private Credit: Barbarians inside the syndicated loan gates
In the syndicated loan market—during times of borrower distress—documentation loopholes are allowing majority lenders to disproportionately benefit at the expense of minority holders. This practice, known colloquially as “lender-on-lender violence,” presents a significant challenge to the sector. The menace is growing by the day.
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White papers
Multifamily Gap Capital
Dags Chen and Lincoln Janes discuss that while the cooling of the Sunbelt multifamily property market is creating cracks in the capital stacks of owners, it is also presenting potential opportunities for investors.Many recent buyers and developers of Sunbelt multifamily properties are overleveraged and need capital to bridge the gap between their debt balances and the significantly depreciated equity value of their holdings. The current pall over the asset class, however, obscures its long-term attractiveness for patient investors.
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Are We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE
Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
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To Understand the Macro, Study the Micro
Right now, second-quarter earnings reports may be a better guide to the economic outlook than official statistics.
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Equity Market Outlook 3Q 2024
Financial headlines suggest that vigorous debate has returned to equity markets. In our 3Q Equity Market Outlook, we highlight key aspects of this shift and discuss what they might portend for markets over the next six to 12 months.
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U.S. Election: Near-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Questions
A close election could see increased U.S. equity volatility followed by a relief rally, while resulting policy impacts could take time to play out and may be affected by fiscal constraints.
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Real estate déjà vu - Has life sciences real estate become the next logistics sector?
A bit more than a decade ago, in 2011, a (at the time) somewhat obscure real estate sector was in the initial stage of its S-shaped growth trajectory. Its share in global real estate investment portfolios was less than 10% and concentrated in the US. This was the industrial (logistics) sector.
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White papers
On My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
In this “On My Mind,” I want to focus on the US fiscal outlook, its relationship to inflation, and the implications for interest rates and bond yields. Let’s start with a snapshot of the US federal govern ment’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades. For the first half of this period, fiscal policy looked fairly prudent, and the deficit averaged slightly more than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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The potential power of income to deliver long-term returns
After years in the wilderness, equity income is now arguably competing on a much more level playing field than it was in the past decade.
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Mid-year investment update – Navigating political turmoil
The US economy is still on a soft landing path, even if the speed and timing of the touchdown vary after each economic release. The most recent US inflation data show price rises slowing more quickly than in the first part of the year. The eurozone, by contrast, continues to see persistently higher inflation
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Making sense of infrastructure debt
The capital expenditure required to support anticipated growth in power demand while also reducing carbon emissions will necessitate significant amounts of debt financing. Don Dimitrievich explains the evolving landscape of opportunities in infrastructure debt.
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Which matters more, top-down or bottom-up?
As an active credit manager, bottom-up analysis is always going to be a core part of our investment process – we add alpha for our clients through careful security selection. But given today’s macro environment has diverged so much from historical norms and is on the verge of shifting again as monetary loosening gathers momentum, what role does a top-down view play and is it more important than bottom-up calls?
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US high yield: Broader financing options soften impact of higher rates
Heading into 2023, the consensus narrative appeared set. The Federal Reserve had embarked on an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle to combat spiralling inflation. A US recession was expected to follow, as household excess savings built up during the pandemic were exhausted and corporate borrowing conditions tightened dramatically after the benign post-global financial crisis era of low interest rates.
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US cements itself as the global centre of tech innovation
The US technology sector’s vigour is showing no signs of abating given 2023’s superior performance has firmly spilled into 2024. Last year the Nasdaq delivered a total return of 45% and 2024 quickly witnessed the tech-heavy index hit new highs bolstered by excitement around the tech sector, while the wider S&P 500 also reached a fresh peak.
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Private credit: Europe versus the US
Estimates suggest the private credit market will double in value over the next 5-years. It’s attractions remain as strong as ever: potential inflation protection, diversification, potentially attractive risk-adjusted returns, and volatility reduction. With Europe and the US dominating almost 90% of the market, what are the key differences between these regions and where should investors set their focus?
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The Role of Cold Storage in the Supply Chain
Food, one of life’s basic necessities, relies on cold storage for its safe, efficient and effective distribution to U.S. and global populations.
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Real Estate Outlook – US, Edition May 2024: Cautiously optimistic
After more than two years of adjusting to higher interest rates, private market real estate results were mixed during 1Q24, with value declines offset by income in several sectors. Returns for retail and industrial warehouse turned slightly positive. Self-storage returns were flat. Apartments and office buildings experienced negative total returns; though niche segments of the sectors, like medical office, manufactured and student housing outperformed.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – US, Edition May 2024: Cautiously optimistic
After more than two years of adjusting to higher interest rates, private market real estate results were mixed during 1Q24, with value declines offset by income in several sectors. Returns for retail and industrial warehouse turned slightly positive. Self-storage returns were flat. Apartments and office buildings experienced negative total returns; though niche segments of the sectors, like medical office, manufactured and student housing outperformed.
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White papers
Real Estate Outlook – Global, Edition May 2024 Approaching the bottom
In the first three months of 2024 US economic growth was positive, but weaker than expected. GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 1.6% quarter on quarter (QoQ), a sharp downshift from the 3.4% annualized in 4Q23.