All United States articles
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White papersSPIVA® U.S. Scorecard
2019 was a remarkable year for equity markets in the U.S. and around the world. Boosted by an accommodative Fed policy, low unemployment, low inflation, and continued global growth, risk assets across the board did well—all of the benchmarks tracked in the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard had positive returns, with the S&P 500® Value leading the pack at 31.9%.
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White papers
Selecting survivors: an attractive entry point for US small caps
The last quarter was one of extremes and there was little – if any – discrimination between higher and lower-quality companies. Small caps were particularly affected and have declined more than larger companies, while value stocks have lost more ground to growth stocks.
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White papers
Durability During Distress – Part 2
Dividends play a vital role in many investors’ approach to the market, although there is more than one way to approach dividends. Some investors are most concerned with dividend yield per se, while others are more sensitive to the growth of dividends over time. Both approaches, of course, can be readily indicized.
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White papers
Not created equal: Surveying investments in non-investment grade U.S. corporate
Institutional investors searching for yield and current income opportunities have increased their allocations to non-investment grade corporate bonds and loans. The case for investing in these assets is clear with the 10-year Treasury under 3% and historically low rates across the yield curve. Non-investment grade U.S. corporate debt has historically produced yields in the 6-10% range or greater.
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White papers
The Duration Risk in Equities
Since early 2017 there has been a notable gap between the expected growth in future dividends and the performance of the US equity market. The value of the 10 S&P 500® annual dividend index futures contracts at the end of April were eqivalent to about 500 S&P 500® index points, to be paid between now and the end of 2030.
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White papers
Weekly Market Navigation Update: Discussing the risk rally in April
Philip Lawlor, MD, Global Markets Research examines the recovery in risk appetite, why US equities dominated global equity market returns, notable differences in sector weighted performance contributions across the regions, performance of alternative indices and more.
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Asset Manager News
Sl Green, National Pension Service Of Korea And Hines Form Joint Venture Partnership At One Madison Avenue
Manhattan’s largest office landlord, today announced that it has sold a 49.5% interest in One Madison Avenue to the National Pension Service of Korea (“NPS”) and Hines Interest LP (“Hines”). NPS and Hines have committed aggregate equity to the project totaling no less than $492.2 million. SL Green Realty Corp. and Hines will co-develop the $2.3 billion project, which will span 1.4 million rentable square feet upon completion.
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White papers
How to Invest in Equities When Guidance Disappears
The COVID-19 shutdown has prompted an unprecedented number of US companies to suspend earnings guidance. Equity investors should focus fundamental research on a wider range of outcomes instead of the overly precise game of predicting short-term estimates—especially during a period of heightened uncertainty.
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White papers
Fact-finding and Fortune-telling in U.S. Real Estate
Barings’ John Ockerbloom and Colin Gordon discuss the material consequences of COVID-19 for the real estate markets broadly as well as sector by sector—and predict how real estate portfolios may change in the years ahead.
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White papers
Fed determined to save U.S. economy … if it can
Over the past six weeks, the Fed has relaunched virtually all of its emergency liquidity programs used during the global financial crisis and started several more, all in the name of keeping the financial system functioning and helping the U.S. economy recover once the global economic shutdown is over. It used its April meeting as a status update for how its efforts have worked thus far.
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White papers
The TALF 2.0 Opportunity in Asset Backed Securities
During the 2008 – 10 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) enabled double-digit returns from high-rated ABS. What are the prospects under TALF 2.0, part of the Fed’s COVID-19 response?
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White papers
The Federal Reserve: Central Banker to the World
In response to recent crises, major central banks unveiled significant monetary easing programs, with the Federal Reserve leading the charge by digging deeper into its crisis-fighting toolkit than ever before. The Fed’s aggressive policy responses have implications for global financial markets, demonstrating the Fed’s strategic importance to the rest of the world.
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White papers
What Plunging Oil Prices Mean for Energy Bonds
On April 20, the price of oil skidded into negative territory for the first time in history, with the May futures contract on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hitting a low of –US$37.63 per barrel before recovering to positive levels.
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White papers
Why U.S. high yield? Why now?
The first quarter of 2020 will go down in the books as one of the most eventful quarters in American economic history.
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White papers
Research paper: Russell 2000 – Forty+ Years of Insights
The Russell 2000 has become the preeminent representative of the US small-cap stock domain since its inception in 1984. More than 40 years of data enables deep insights into the relative performance and distinct characteristics of small-cap stocks. While there has been no clear performance advantage of small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks over the past four decades, there have been material differences over shorter periods, primarily driven by the underlying industry composition and economic sensitivities that distinguish large companies from their smaller counterparts.
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White papers
US Macro Outlook: Let’s Bend The Economic Growth Curve
Three recovery scenarios? Franklin Templeton Fixed Income discusses the implications for growth, employment, and investment.
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White papers
Taking the Bite Out of High Yield’s Tail Risk
A new buyer has arrived on the scene of U.S. high yield markets, and it happens to be the biggest buyer of them all: the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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White papers
Blog | Will equities become the next QE asset class the Fed buys?
The Fed recently broadened the range of assets it will buy in Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, to include corporate bonds and sub-investment grade issues, supplementing US Treasuries and (agency) MBS. Given the severity and broad-based nature of the shock to the US economy from the coronavirus, this begs the question as to whether the Fed will follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and include US equities in its range of QE assets?
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White papers
Blog | Yield Book Add in for Non Agency RMBS: Model Scalars and Prepayment Dials in the Time of COVID-19
The coronavirus pandemic has created turmoil across financial markets and throughout the entire US economy, and the Non-Agency RMBS sector may be especially susceptible to the broader economy’s deterioration.Yield Book offers users the flexibility to adjust key performance measures and override key macroeconomic inputs in order to assess the implications across mortgage performance and bond analytics. In this guide, we demonstrate how to utilize model scalars and prepayment dials for representative deals from the CRT (CAS2019-R01, STACR 2019-DNA1, STACR 2019-HQA1), Jumbo near Prime (SEMT 2019-1) and Non-QM (AOMT 2019-1) sectors, and the resulting impact on collateral performance projections.
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White papers
Will COVID-19 lead to sustainable change?
The COVID-19 pandemic has led the world into the largest social distancing experiment in history. A USD 2 trillion US government stimulus programme and US Treasury yields below 1% are all the result of the crisis. In addition, oil prices have fallen to below USD 20 a barrel as demand destruction has exacerbated the effects of a collapse in OPEC’s pricing policy. Will the world go back to ‘status quo’ when we exit this dislocation? Probably not. We believe the learnings from the ‘go-remote’ experiment are here to stay. The implications for the future of energy, real estate, work, education, health care delivery and so forth are vast.
