All United States articles
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White papersThe K-Shaped Economy Weighs on the U.S. Consumer
Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of U.S. GDP. We expect 2026 consumption to be stable and contribute to solid GDP growth but remain concerned about higher inequality and the growing share of spending coming from high-income consumers.
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White papersOur convictions remain unchanged despite the return of tariff uncertainty
Since the start of the year, some of the key convictions that we have highlighted in our outlook have been playing out and some trends have accelerated. We are witnessing a regime shift characterised by heightened policy uncertainty and a distinct break in the international order — key themes highlighted at the Davos World Economic Forum and confirmed at the Munich Security Conference.
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White papersWhy Today’s Environment Favors Mortgage-Backed Securities
A strong housing market and supportive federal policy could benefit US mortgage-backed securities.
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White papersInvesting in the AI era: growth, gains, and risks
Breaks down where AI-driven growth is most compelling — and where valuation and execution risks remain.
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White papersUS high-yield: Embracing credit divergence, unlocking opportunities
The US high-yield bond market has moved up in quality. We believe healthy fundamental and technical factors in 2026 will continue to underpin it in 2026. Carry should again drive returns, but there is likely to be more variety in returns across sectors, credit ratings and bond issuers, writes Jack Stephenson, Investment Specialist for US High-Yield.
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White papersWhat could a Warsh-led Fed mean for markets?
On 30 January 2026, Donald Trump tapped Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor between 2006 and 2011, and prominent policy hawk in a few past episodes — to take over from Jerome Powell as the US Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.
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VideoFuture Shock: Reading Financial Signals in Natural Hazards
When natural disasters occur, the impact on humanity can be devastating. There’s also an impact on financial markets. When these perils do hit, there can be a negative impact on economies, infrastructure and companies, and by extension, a negative implication to investors.
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White papersU.S. vs. China: Different AI Approaches, Common Choke Points
The two countries are taking different approaches to artificial intelligence, but common bottlenecks in memory chips and networking systems continue to create potentially attractive opportunities for investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and testing equipment.
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White papersThe ‘inverted pyramid’: winners from new US food guidelines
The US government’s move to shift the national diet provides tailwinds for companies in ‘real food’ supply chains and reformulation. Its revised guidelines emphasise high-quality proteins, dairy and fats, raise nutritional standards for school meals and reshape how ‘food stamps’ can be spent.1
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White papersSoftware Leads AI-Driven Tech Rout—What Next?
The breadth and ferocity of the sell-off in technology stocks is a fresh test of the AI story. Buckle up—more tests will come.
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VideoWhat’s the outlook for US high-yield bonds?
Growth forecasts for 2026 are generally being revised up for US companies as the benefits of deregulation and fiscal measures in the One Big Beautiful Bill start coming through, underpinning a still resilient setup for the high-yield fixed income market. Accordingly, default rates should remain in a manageable 1-3% range – well below long-term averages.
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White papersUnlocking nature-based solutions with mitigation banking
As ecological degradation increasingly affects economic systems, nature-based solutions are gaining attention as potential investment opportunities. Mitigation banking, a market-based framework for ecosystem restoration, offers investors a structured approach to participating in nature loss solutions. With nearly $4 billion in annual revenue and three decades of regulatory stability, U.S. ecosystem restoration markets may provide entry points for investors seeking portfolio diversification alongside environmental impact. Find out more.
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White papersCould US GDP growth hit 5% this year?
The resilience of the US economy never fails to amaze me. Despite all the turmoil in the world, the US economy somehow manages to look past it, power through it, and come out stronger on the other side.
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White papersPrivate real estate lending: Why it’s growing
Private lender activity in US commercial real estate (CRE) has rebounded more sharply than the overall market, nearly doubling its pre-pandemic share of loan originations.
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White papersA blockbuster, but skewed, tax refund season
Tax refunds are coming in strong, but unevenly distributed — shaping consumer spending patterns and near-term economic momentum.
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White papersWinners and Losers at the All-K Corral
Economic growth through the third quarter of 2025 came in above expectations and will likely end the year on a strong note. At the same time, the K-shaped economy is more present than ever: even outside the consumer. Most of our recent productivity gains have been concentrated in the information sector while others remain stagnant. Services industries continue to grow, but manufacturing has been in contraction for 34 out of the last 36 months. Large firms are also seeing strong profits, but small firms continue to struggle.
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White papersEU risk retention rules – implications for US securitised credit investors
The European Union Securitisation Regulation (EUSR) took effect in 2019 (concurrently with an equivalent UKSR framework for UK investors). EUSR imposes compliance obligations on many EU-regulated entities, including UCITS (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) funds, which invest in securitised assets.
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White papersJanuary 2026 FOMC meeting: Policy rates on hold, nothing to see here
The Fed keeps rates unchanged, signaling patience as inflation cools and growth remains resilient.
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White papersThe Fed’s pause highlights value of diversification
The U.S. Federal Reserve paused rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, citing stronger labor data and consumer spending. With an upgraded 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, elevated market valuations, and a slower pace of Fed rate cuts, investors may benefit from portfolio diversification. Our latest analysis explores potential opportunities across dividend-growing equities, senior loans, and alternative assets like farmland as investors seek to balance risk and return objectives in this evolving environment. Read the full analysis.
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White papersInstitutional ownership of single-family rentals (SFR): Investor FAQ
Single-family rentals continue to attract institutional capital as affordability pressures persist, offering diversification benefits, stable cash flows, and exposure to long-term demographic trends.
