All United States articles – Page 7
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As rate hikes near end, historic investor opportunity may begin
To say this has been an interesting year in financial markets is an understatement. Equities have been stronger than most expected, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up 40 basis points as of 13 September. So where are we now as we head into the homestretch of 2023?
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Going global may benefit U.S. dollar investors
One might think that the diversification benefits of global investing would be minimal, as trade and financial ties bring the world closer together. However, the global economy remains far from synchronized.
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Navigating by Flashes of Lightning
Central banks may be reluctant to hike further, but as long as they tie themselves to incoming data their hands may be forced.
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Is the U.S. Economy Meaningfully Reaccelerating?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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Strike (Big) 3?
A potential U.S. auto strike has significant implications for the economy, earnings and inflation.
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Not all yield-curve steepenings are alike
End-of-cycle periods come and go, and they all tend to resemble each other. Inflation that exceeds central-bank targets legitimises increases in short rates, leading to long rates rising in anticipation. This opens the door to the prospect of different kinds of ‘steepenings’. In this weekly instalment of Simply put, we investigate the current outlook for the yield curve.
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NYC Congestion Tolling: Winners, Losers and Unintended Consequences
Investors in municipal bonds are following the NYC congestion tolling situation as the MTA is a frequent borrower in the municipal bond market, but they are not the only borrower impacted by the program.
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The Limited Impact of the U.S. Downgrade on Munis
The credit quality of states as a group is not constrained by the U.S. sovereign rating and we don’t expect the U.S. downgrade to have an outsized impact on muni bond valuations going forward.
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Diversifying + Defensive Equity Approaches
In times when downside risk may lie ahead, a combination of diversifying and defensive equity approaches can potentially improve the probability of achieving positive outcomes.
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Assessing bond value in the new era
Brandywine Global: Fiscal stimulus has propped up real yields, but the effects may fade just as the lagged effects of monetary policy kick in. The result? Slower nominal growth and a better backdrop for bonds.
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What’s happened to the cycle?
Conventional market wisdom dictates that a slowdown normally becomes a recession, and that investors should sell equities ahead of a downturn. Additionally, higher rates should eventually lead to lower inflation, at which point investors typically favour bonds. These phenomena tend to overlap more as the threat of a recession grows.
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Crisis in concrete: Navigating the ripple effects of commercial real estate on municipal bonds
Declining commercial real estate valuations will not likely lead to a wave of defaults among muni issuers, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s municipal bond team.
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Is it time to be optimistic?
One of the key features of the summer rally has been the surprising resilience of the US economy. An easy way to assess this improvement involves looking at ‘surprise indices’ that measure the cumulative difference between published economic numbers and economists’ expectations.
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Deep waves: The corporate and household debt wave
For over a decade, capital abundance has supported economic growth and provided investment opportunities across the globe. As we depart from the zero-rate world into the realm of structurally tighter financial conditions, we focus on household and corporate debt, assessing the “quality” of investments and the implications of high inflation and high interest rates on investment risk and returns.
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Is now the time to consider allocating to US small- and mid-cap growth stocks?
Small- and mid-cap growth indexes today paint a compelling picture. Historically, small- and mid-cap growth equities have demonstrated return potential following bear market periods.
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Household loans – Offering predictable performance, even in tough times
As growth in developed economies slows and higher central bank rates start to bite, investors looking for portfolio diversification and attractive returns could consider a relatively little-known, but high-quality asset class: Household loans. Tonko Gast explains.
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Fiorino: Can US consumers stretch debt reality?
String theory – which contends matter is made of tiny vibrating strings – offers lessons on the capacity of credit markets to adapt to slowing growth and recession risk.
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Will the US equities rally continue?
The blue-chip S&P 500 index was up 3.1% in July. But stronger than expected US jobs data has added to speculation about future interest rate hikes.
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Could inflation surprises unsettle markets?
There is an old investment adage that says: “buy the rumor and sell the news”. Markets tend to try to anticipate forthcoming data such as inflation numbers, with investors building positions ahead of time based on their expectations. Once the outcome is confirmed, investors take profits (or cut losses) by exiting positions.
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U.S. Economic Monthly: Consumers Keep At It
MIM now expects a recession to begin in 2024.