All United States articles – Page 8
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White papersFields of Dreams: The Growing Disparity Between Yield Forecasts and Reality
After under-promising and over-delivering for much of the first half of the last decade, realized end-of-season yields have come in below early season United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates consistently since 2019 for corn and 2022 for soybeans. When it comes to yield projection, past performance is assumed to inform future results. In fact, the most common approach to generating a basic estimate of US corn and soybean yields involves deriving an “unconditional” linear trend estimate from historical yield data starting in the 1980s.
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White papersThe need for stronger US fiscal policy
US Treasury bonds have long provided domestic and foreign investors a modest yield that was assumed to be risk free. Yields (and thus prices) could be volatile, but the risk of the US government defaulting on its debt was regarded as so low that US Treasury yields became a benchmark for all other government and corporate debt: If the US government had zero risk of default, the default risk of any other borrower could be simply measured by looking at the additional yield it offered over a comparable Treasury security.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2025
In the wake of an eventful quarter, we believe that more benign inflation data and softer but still positive growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts, joining other central banks that have maintained easing polices. While tepid, economic growth remains positive globally and, in the U.S., could improve toward the end of the year and into 2026. In this environment, we currently favor exposure to shorter-term U.S. Treasuries, as well as opportunities in high yield and local currency-denominated emerging market debt, with tariff-related volatility posing a key risk.
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White papersRenewed threats to the Fed’s independence
Political pressure now threatens the Fed’s operational independence, prompting sharp market reactions—including a surge in long-term yields, a weaker dollar, and elevated volatility—which underscores the crucial role of central bank autonomy in maintaining market confidence and stability.
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White papersEquity Market Outlook: 3Q 2025
We maintain our belief that economic growth is likely to slow, but that a severe U.S. downturn appears unlikely. Against this backdrop, we remain constructive on global equity markets heading into the second half of 2025 and highlight potentially more attractive opportunities.
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White papersU.S. CRE deal volume up 7% in 2Q 2025
U.S. CRE deal volume rose 7% in Q2 2025, driving a 13% year‑over‑year increase led by strong office, industrial, and retail activity.
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White papersNorth America real estate market outlook Q3 2025
The latest US data has been mixed. Firms are investing, but consumption momentum has been weaker. We discuss the impact on real estate.
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White papersSummer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
As expected, the 2017 tax cuts are being made permanent. Additional cuts are also being introduced, including an exemption on tips and overtime, deductions for seniors, and an increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 (this allows households, in particular, to deduct their property taxes from their federal income tax).
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - July-August 2025
“While the OBBBA’s tax cuts may stimulate the US economy in the short run, rising trade tariffs this summer could limit gains. The bill also heightens medium-term growth risks.”
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White papersAntifragile? Renewable energy infrastructure after the One Big Beautiful Bill
Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.
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White papersA Weaker Dollar? It May Be Time to Get Used to It
Policy shifts may create an incentive to diversify.
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White papersEnvisioning a post-Powell Fed: What comes next?
With characteristic directness, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction in recent weeks with the job performance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Serious or not, this kind of talk has investors speculating on what’s next for the US central bank and what a changing of the guard could mean for the economy and markets — whether that change comes at the end of Powell’s term as chair in May 2026 or sooner.
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White papersChina’s growth set to hit target in 2025
“Resilient China’s growth highlights the economy’s ongoing efforts to adjust trade partnerships and manage tariff-related challenges, keeping it on track to reach its growth target for 2025.”
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White papersO’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha Monthly Letter: Positioning beyond the US
In June, global markets navigated a complex web of economic and geopolitical developments, creating a striking paradox: rising trade barriers and the ensuing risk of rising inflation on the one hand, and record-high equity performance on the other. Despite these tensions, recent data reveal a resilience in market sentiment.
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White papersSummertime…but will the Fed be easing?
With noise levels still high, certainty on policy remains elusive.
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White papersSigns of a growing deficit attention disorder
Short-term risk-on distractions should give way to long-term economic reality.
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White papersWill Policy Clarity Spark a New Wave of Economic Growth?
While tariff uncertainty continues to linger, the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill provides business leaders with long-awaited policy clarity that may provide a boost to capital expenditure.
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White papersUS fixed income – Reasons for concern
Developed market interest rates remained generally range bound in the second quarter. The US economy can be expected to pivot towards higher inflation and slower growth. Such a trajectory may well lead the US Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy in the third quarter, writes Olivier De Larouziere.
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White papersTwo paradigms: regulated utilities across the Atlantic
We offer a comparative look at US and European utility regulation and what it means for investors navigating two distinct models of oversight.
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White papersA brief history of US protectionism and global trade
Earlier this year, massive trade uncertainty caused extreme market volatility. Since then, concerns over economic costs, retaliations, and legal challenges have eased tensions. Markets now price limited stress, suggesting peak tensions are behind and current tariffs have become the new norm. However, when considering Trump’s transactional approach: a sense of calm is often followed by renewed pressure. While peak stress may have passed and dealmaking may take priority, we still expect US trade policies and sustained tariffs to pressure supply chains and activity, fueling uncertainty and occasional volatility spikes.
