All United States articles – Page 6
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White papersMacro brief: Tariff clarity for Japan but political uncertainty remains
Japan watchers have seen the country strike a solid trade deal with the US in recent weeks, bringing much-needed certainty to a country still dependent on nascent reflation. At the same time, however, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)/Komeito coalition’s failure to secure a majority in Upper House elections has intensified calls for new political leadership.
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White papersWhy real estate credit amid continued trade policy uncertainty and U.S. debt concerns?
Real estate credit offers resilient income amid U.S. trade policy uncertainty and rising debt concerns, supported by floating rates, faster amortization, and equity cushions. Strong fundamentals in sectors like multifamily and industrial further reinforce its stability for investors.
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White papers“US(D) exceptionalism” is not going away
Although equity investors have been adjusting their regional allocations away from the US dollar in recent months, there is little sign this is happening in bond markets, where yields remain high and alternatives to the dollar are limited.
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White papersWhy APAC real estate now?
The global investment landscape remains highly uncertain, shaped by rapidly evolving geopolitical tensions and economic developments. Our base case reflects a combination of escalation and de-escalation scenarios regarding the trajectory of US tariffs. While we cannot predict how US tariff levels are ultimately going to shake out or the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, we remain focused on navigating this volatility with a balanced perspective.
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White papersWill the Fed Stay in the Monetary Policy Driver’s Seat?
Efforts to reduce the central bank’s autonomy would likely disrupt markets.
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White papersU.S. Real Estate: Appreciating Income in a Shifting Economy
CRE valuations held steady in the second quarter, though transaction activity was subdued amid economic uncertainty and periods of market volatility following “Liberation Day”.
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White papersMid-year investment update – Through the rapids
Markets have faced no shortage of challenges over the last quarter, most notably the threat of US import tariffs after ‘Liberation Day’, but also the prospect of a surge in oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and a sell-off in US Treasury yields following an expansionary budget bill in the US.
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White papersThe Fed navigates economic crosscurrents amid tariffs
The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its target policy rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its July meeting, acknowledging the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and tariff-related distortions. While headline GDP figures have oscillated dramatically, underlying growth continues its gradual deceleration during persistent uncertainty.
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White papersThe US Dollar Free Lunch is Over. What Now?
Unhedged USD investors have long seen strong returns and lower risk, but 2025 brings new challenges. A single hedge strategy no longer fits all—our recent papers reflect differentiated hedging approaches across currencies.
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White papersConfounding returns: The mysterious case of the US dollar
The weakness of the US dollar this year has been unexpected as tariffs were widely expected to lead to the dollar strengthening. Tristan Hanson, Multi Asset Fund Manager, explores the factors that determine currency movements, from capital flows to interest rate differentials. While bearishness about the US dollar has increased, he suggests investors should be appropriately sceptical of the stories used to explain exchange rate movements.
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White papersUS dollar slide pauses amid US-Japan deal
The dollar fell by around 10% this year, as on 22 July, mainly due to uncertainty over President Trump’s trade policies and concerns over US debt and fiscal deficit. Issues like the political pressure on the Fed to cut rates aggressively have also weighed on sentiment.
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White papersPension funds themes for an era of geopolitical and policy shifts
Our short-term outlook for the second half of 2025 highlights significant shifts in the global rewiring of trade and financial markets, alongside historic changes in tariffs and fiscal policy. These developments carry important implications for long-term investors, particularly pension funds, for which we see three key investment themes.
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White papersFields of Dreams: The Growing Disparity Between Yield Forecasts and Reality
After under-promising and over-delivering for much of the first half of the last decade, realized end-of-season yields have come in below early season United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates consistently since 2019 for corn and 2022 for soybeans. When it comes to yield projection, past performance is assumed to inform future results. In fact, the most common approach to generating a basic estimate of US corn and soybean yields involves deriving an “unconditional” linear trend estimate from historical yield data starting in the 1980s.
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White papersThe need for stronger US fiscal policy
US Treasury bonds have long provided domestic and foreign investors a modest yield that was assumed to be risk free. Yields (and thus prices) could be volatile, but the risk of the US government defaulting on its debt was regarded as so low that US Treasury yields became a benchmark for all other government and corporate debt: If the US government had zero risk of default, the default risk of any other borrower could be simply measured by looking at the additional yield it offered over a comparable Treasury security.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2025
In the wake of an eventful quarter, we believe that more benign inflation data and softer but still positive growth could soon prompt the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts, joining other central banks that have maintained easing polices. While tepid, economic growth remains positive globally and, in the U.S., could improve toward the end of the year and into 2026. In this environment, we currently favor exposure to shorter-term U.S. Treasuries, as well as opportunities in high yield and local currency-denominated emerging market debt, with tariff-related volatility posing a key risk.
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White papersRenewed threats to the Fed’s independence
Political pressure now threatens the Fed’s operational independence, prompting sharp market reactions—including a surge in long-term yields, a weaker dollar, and elevated volatility—which underscores the crucial role of central bank autonomy in maintaining market confidence and stability.
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White papersEquity Market Outlook: 3Q 2025
We maintain our belief that economic growth is likely to slow, but that a severe U.S. downturn appears unlikely. Against this backdrop, we remain constructive on global equity markets heading into the second half of 2025 and highlight potentially more attractive opportunities.
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White papersU.S. CRE deal volume up 7% in 2Q 2025
U.S. CRE deal volume rose 7% in Q2 2025, driving a 13% year‑over‑year increase led by strong office, industrial, and retail activity.
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White papersNorth America real estate market outlook Q3 2025
The latest US data has been mixed. Firms are investing, but consumption momentum has been weaker. We discuss the impact on real estate.
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White papersSummer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
As expected, the 2017 tax cuts are being made permanent. Additional cuts are also being introduced, including an exemption on tips and overtime, deductions for seniors, and an increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 (this allows households, in particular, to deduct their property taxes from their federal income tax).
