All United States articles – Page 6
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White papersThe CIO view: Shifts in the balance of risk and return
US President-elect Donald Trump’s radical policy agenda has created some financial market uncertainty, in terms of the outlook for investment returns. Nevertheless, we believe the central macroeconomic outlook remains favourable for bonds and equities. Growth, stable inflation and lower interest rates should support markets. But investment decisions need to consider cashflow resilience and valuations, given policy risks and broader concerns. For now, we don’t expect a recession in 2025 which should help deliver positive equity returns, while credit markets should provide attractive income opportunities.
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Asset Manager NewsEmpira Platform Joins Forces with Partners Group
As of early 2025, Empira AG, a leading vertically integrated investment manager specialising in real estate, will become part of Partners Group, one of the world’s leading private markets investment managers. As part of this transaction, Empira will operate as a specialised, independent real estate brand within Partners Group, broadening the reach of both firms to offer institutional and private investors worldwide innovative and high-yield real estate investments.
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White papersWhat is in store for tech?
The tech sector continued to outperform in 2024, with a YTD performance of +34% versus a +25% for the S&P 500 Index. Over the past two year, the tech sector’s outperformance has been driven by superior earnings growth, expectations of lower US interest rates and the start of a cycle of investment in AI technologies.
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Asset Manager NewsPartners Group agrees to acquire real estate platform Empira Group
Partners Group, one of the largest firms in the global private markets industry, has agreed to acquire Empira Group, a premier real estate investment platform. The transaction will enhance Partners Group’s position as a global real estate investor and support its ambitious growth plans as the asset class enters a new paradigm for investing.
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White papersConsumer confidence sparks Black Friday
In November, US consumer confidence hit its highest point in over a year. Notably, expectations for the next six months (as shown in the chart) are at their highest level in nearly three years, which is promising for the upcoming holiday season. The increase in political discussions among survey participants indicates that the political climate following Donald Trump’s election may have influenced consumer attitudes.
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PodcastOuterblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Analysing the bright spots in a Trump 2.0 world
In the past few weeks, economists have been busy writing their predications for what might lie ahead of us in the next 12 months. This year, the task was made harder by the US elections, the strong chance of a shift in policy, and the potential spill over to other regions.
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White papersRiding ESG waves across the globe: the US and India in focus
At any surf spot in the world, you can find a cadre of wetsuit-clad wave watchers scanning the horizon of the sea. Surfing, a sport unlike any other, demands an intricate understanding of the water and weather conditions. The interplay between tides and the underwater terrain determines the height, direction and formation of wave patterns.
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White papersNuclear and the energy transition — Lessons learned from the lost decades
Interest in nuclear energy has ebbed and flowed in the past few decades. We have seen several declarations of a “nuclear renaissance” during this period, depending on prevailing public opinion around carbon emissions, energy security and nuclear safety, as well as country-specific issues.
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White papersIn Plain Sight: The Core Plus real estate investment opportunity that every investor should know about
In today’s commercial real estate environment, a new paradigm is reshaping the way BGO is approaching the market. Structural shifts in capital flows, transformative demographic trends, and evolving tenant behaviors are driving waves of change that have further strengthened our resolve and the rationale for Core Plus investing. We are in a higher cost of capital world, not only with interest rates but also with insurance costs and operating environments. Further, secular shifts have changed the way the built environment is utilized globally.
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White papersBack to Business
After a year of tumultuous elections, investors can now refocus on company fundamentals—and the outlook is more nuanced than it might seem.
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PodcastDisruptive Forces Election Special: Trump’s Cabinet
President-Elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20, 2025, after a whirlwind election season. But how could this term differ from his first? How will Trump’s cabinet be shaped, and what directions could this take the markets?
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White papersTrumponomics and European real estate
The incoming US administration isn’t all bad news for Europe’s real estate investors
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White papersQT or Not QT?
Against the aggressive expansion of the balance sheet in response to the COVID pandemic, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet from $4.1 trillion, or 18.8% of GDP, to a peak of $9.0 trillion, or 35.6% of GDP, in Q1 2022. This is nearly double the pre-COVID level, which was already elevated relative to the balance sheet seen in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis.
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VideoPost-U.S. Election Sector Impacts
Now that the results of the 2024 U.S. elections are in, we are focusing on how the potential expansion of U.S. tariffs and the accompanying fiscal policies will affect different industries.
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White papersAn agile approach to credit – amid volatility and uncertainty
As we look ahead to 2025, the forces that drive global credit are rife with mixed signals and extreme valuations. As evidenced over the last year, an unconstrained approach to credit investing can utilise a tactical approach, which has the potential to generate alpha amid dynamic market conditions.
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White papersHas the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle been knocked off course?
The US Federal Reserve has the scope for one more rate cut in 2024. Will the latest inflation data make it pause?
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White papersStalling car auction sales suggest broader consumer weakness
The popularity of online car auctions has created a unique two-way market dataset that is liquid and representative of all the US. Alongside wider income and expenditure data, we can see consumer pressures rising up the wealth ladder.
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White papersThe extraordinary US cycle is becoming more balanced
“Progressively softer labour market conditions and positive inflation developments support gradual rate cuts, allowing the Fed to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.”
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White papersTransitioning to a riskier, messier and diversifying world
Our analysis suggests that the level of geopolitical risk will rise over the next few years. The trends that lead us to this conclusion are likely to also play out in 2025. Our Geopolitical Sentiment Tracker shows that more countries now have poor bilateral relations, while Russia’s ties with Iran, North Korea and China are deepening.
