All Commentary articles – Page 4
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White papersReal assets outlook: Widening investment opportunities
The logistics sector continues to lead the way within the real assets universe, in both the US and Europe. High-quality offices are seeing an improvement in pricing as the ‘return to office’ mandate gathers pace.
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White papersInvestment Outlook 2026 – The shifting investment landscape
Against a backdrop of volatile geopolitics, tariffs, and policy shifts, the global economy enters 2026 with surprising resilience.
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White papersMacroeconomic outlook: Surprisingly resilient
The global economy has proved surprisingly resilient in 2025. In the immediate aftermath of Liberation Day, the IMF forecast that the global economy would grow by 2.8% in 2025. It now expects global growth of 3.2% this year.
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White papers2026 Investment Outlook
A spirit of endurance has characterized the market rally of the past year. This looks set to persist in 2026 as the global economy transitions to a new innovation-led regime and geopolitics enters a phase of controlled disorder.
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White papersU.S. power market in a period of unprecedented growth and transformation
Following nearly two decades of stagnation, power demand is now surging, with an average annual growth rate of over 1% between 2021 and 2024, and approximately 3% growth in 2024 alone. Current long-term growth expectations range from 2% to well above 3% per year; by some measures, the U.S. is expected to add the equivalent power demand of New York over the next five years.
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White papersLifting the veil on headline CRE returns: A market ripe for alpha
It posits that headline CRE return metrics may mask underlying dispersion — creating opportunities for active investors to generate “alpha” by selectively targeting under-appreciated assets in a changing macro and financing environment.
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White papersInfrastructure gains ground as investors seek steady private market returns
Rising tensions in globalisation and constraints to public and lending markets are enabling private capital to become a key driver of resilient, long-term infrastructure investment.
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White papersUS corporate earnings season nears close
For the quarter ended 30 September 2025, over 81% of companies beat earnings expectations led by the information technology, consumer staples, and financial sectors. This is well above the historical average and the second-best since the last quarter of 2021. Along with some other factors, these earnings boosted sentiment in the stocks markets which have continued their ascent this year.
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White papersThe Great Global Restructuring
How AI, trade, the US debt and dollar outlook are reshaping the investment landscape.
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White papersBoE stays on hold, all eyes on budget now
At its November meeting, the BoE kept its policy rates unchanged at 4%. Policymakers noted that a deceleration in overall inflation is underway, favoured by a restrictive policy stance, softening labour market, and easing services inflation. Risks around achieving the bank’s 2% inflation target are more balanced, and downside risks from weak demand have grown. Looking ahead, we expect one rate cut in December and two more next year, although further actions may depend on incoming data.
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White papersSolving for 2026
Our investment leaders break down the macro environment and its implications for equities, fixed income, and private markets in 2026.
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VideoGemcast Episode 6: Mobilising capital
In episode 6 of Gemcast we are joined by Walter Pacheco, Chairman of Kassai Capital our domestic asset manager in Angola.
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White papersChina: Strategic Choices in a Changing Century
China and the US have agreed on a one‑year pause in their trade war, signalling a willingness to manage risks. While both remain committed to enhancing their own supply‑chain and technology autonomy, this “ceasefire” should not be interpreted as a strategic reset; rather, it’s a pragmatic step towards coexistence.
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White papersCRE loan demand turns positive for the first time since 2022
The average net share of CRE loan-demand respondents turned positive (+1.7%) in 3Q 2025 — the first positive reading since early 2022 — suggesting a possible shift in credit conditions that could support a broader CRE recovery.
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White papersThe AI Story Isn’t Going in Circles
Skeptics of “circular” dealmaking within the AI industry may be missing the point.
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White papersAre we in an AI bubble?
In the past few weeks, I have been struck by the volume of media coverage focusing on whether investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is driving the market toward an “AI bubble.”
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White papersEurope’s AI challenges and opportunities
While Europe registers strength in AI research and patents, its limited funding, regulatory burden and energy-infrastructure constraints hinder the commercial scaling of AI — putting its markets at a disadvantage versus U.S. peers, though selective opportunities remain in sectors positioned for AI-infrastructure growth.
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White papersTaxable municipal bonds: room to run
Taxable municipal bonds returned 6.43% year-to-date through Q3 2025, marking the best start since 2020, with spread advantages over similarly rated corporates providing runway for additional gains despite slight underperformance. Strong fundamentals—tax revenues and reserves at all-time highs—combine with compelling entry points from year-to-date underperformance, seasonal upticks in new issuance creating buying opportunities, and widening performance gaps between credits that make disciplined security selection increasingly critical for active managers seeking optimal returns.
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White papersGlobal Investment Outlook Q4 2025: A world in flux
Global markets are navigating a complex landscape shaped by policy divergence, trade tensions, and the unwinding of US exceptionalism. While the US remains a leader in technology and innovation, its dominance in global capital flows is being tested by slowing growth, fiscal pressures, and overconcentration in mega-cap technology stocks. A softer US dollar and heightened policy uncertainty are prompting investors to rethink their approach to safety, diversification, and drivers of returns.
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White papers2024-2025 Private equity impact report: Accelerating solutions for a world in transition
The world faces intertwined crises of escalating emissions, resource strain and growing inequality that amplifies vulnerability to climate change. Despite recent global market and regulatory shifts, a focus remains on backing growth-oriented, lower-middle market companies driving an inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy, with confidence in long-term fundamentals where impact initiatives align directly with performance rather than creating trade-offs. Our latest impact report highlights new investments across energy efficiency, resource optimization and circular economy solutions, enhanced ESG measurement and emissions tracking, industry partnerships, and portfolio case studies demonstrating growth and impact in action.
