All Commentary articles – Page 10
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White papersHow emotional bias could drive exploitable market inefficiencies
The propensity for emotion and bias to influence decision making is a common individual experience. But do behavioural traits really drive markets too? Here, we analyse recent real world examples that suggests emotional responses are likely to be a factor behind market ‘episodes’.
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White papersREITs: On course for a recovery
The onset of the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle is expected to serve as a major catalyst for REITs, boosting valuations as discount rates fall. Historically, REITs have outperformed during similar economic conditions, and sectors with resilient, long-term cash flows are attractive today. Investors seeking real estate exposure should see this period as a compelling opportunity to benefit from REITs’ liquidity and potential for cap rate compression.
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White papersREITs: On course for a recovery
The onset of the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle is expected to serve as a major catalyst for REITs, boosting valuations as discount rates fall. Historically, REITs have outperformed during similar economic conditions, and sectors with resilient, long-term cash flows are attractive today. Investors seeking real estate exposure should see this period as a compelling opportunity to benefit from REITs’ liquidity and potential for cap rate compression.
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White papersRate Expectations
Much has been written about the pace of likely interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We continue to expect a total of 75 bps by year end, with a first cut of 25 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17-18.
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White papersBoeing bonds bound to bounce back?
Boeing is an iconic name. It enjoys high levels of political support in the government of its single largest customer, the United States. It produces the president-carrying Air Force One, makes the ubiquitous commercial airliners, influences space exploration, produces military equipment and maintains significant nuclear capabilities for the US. This relationship is a substantial pillar of support for the credit.
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White papersFitter, happier, more productive with generative artificial intelligence?
Conventional wisdom says as we live longer, an ageing population will drain the economy. But generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) has the potential to support an active older workforce by improving healthcare outcomes and extending careers by augmenting, not replacing, hard-won expertise.
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BlogFive Risks U.S. Tariffs Pose to EU Competitiveness
We see five reasons why renewed trade tensions could be particularly economically damaging for the EU at this fragile time.
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VideoA falling rate environment
The outlook for money market funds remains buoyant, says Debbie Cunningham, CIO, Global Liquidity Markets.
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White papersIPM monthly blog – Edition September 2024: Our monthly insights into private markets
The last two years have been testing for real estate investors. But there are now numerous signs of recovery taking place in selected market areas. Transaction volumes are flattening and, in the UK, where valuations tend to be adjusted relatively quickly to transaction market data, investment volumes are already rising anew. The marginal improvement indicates that we have passed the bottom of this cycle in terms of investment volume.
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White papersThe time for a convertible bond re-rating has come
As rate cuts hit, shifting monetary policy sets the stage for an asset class resurgence, unlocking value and performance potential.
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PodcastRates and REITs
With the rate tightening cycle largely behind us and discussions now shifting towards potential rate cuts, the time seems right to discuss Real Estate Investment Trusts. Despite REITs being perceived as bond proxies, they have the potential to offer stable and growing revenue streams from tangible assets like apartments, shops, data centers, and towers. But what is the correlation between REITs and rates in today’s environment? And how can investors seek to benefit?
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White papersAttractive opportunities for diversification with private real estate credit
Historically, the best performing investment vintages have often followed periods of distress and volatility. Commercial real estate has experienced a significant downturn since the Federal Reserve (Fed) started raising interest rates in the spring of 2022. However, in our view, the stage is now set for real estate credit to generate attractive income returns with favorable risk tailwinds.
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White papersChurchill 2023 Sustainability Report
We are thrilled to present Churchill’s second annual Sustainability Report. Reflecting on the accomplishments of the past year, I am grateful for the many partnerships we’ve built. From collaborating with investors to refine our practices to engaging with organizations that provide invaluable insights to our investment teams, we are invigorated by the progress we have made together towards our sustainability goals.
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White papersCan the demand for critical minerals be met responsibly?
Decarbonising the economy requires a significant scaling up of green technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics, wind turbines and grid-scale battery storage. All of which require significant mineral inputs. A deficit of these “critical minerals” – such as cobalt, copper, lithium, rare earth elements, graphite and nickel – raises supply risks that could constrain the pace and scale of the energy transition.
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White papersTop 3 trends and challenges affecting the life sciences industry
What are the potential consequences for real estate investors?
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White papersNext-generation private equity: The art of partnership
Next-generation managers are re-energising the private equity industry from the point of view of both approach and performance.
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White papersU.S. Federal Reserve policy decision: securing a soft landing
The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of such large cuts with crises, today’s economic backdrop remains resilient. With recession risks receding and a favorable historical pattern during non-recessionary rate cutting periods, investors have reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s near-term outlook.
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White papersAll to Play for in 2024
In this PDI Q&A, Bryan High discusses the trends and dynamics likely to shape direct lending through the remainder of 2024.
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White papersHigh Yield: Scaling the Maturity Wall
The maturity wall facing high yield bond issuers has garnered much attention. But given the market’s short duration profile, lower prices and higher-quality relative to history, the reality facing issuers is less daunting.
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White papersThe Fifth Stage of Pocketbook Grief
Economic data has been resilient, but everyone seems unhappy—will the consumer cheer up in time to avoid triggering a recession?
