All Inflation articles – Page 21
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White papers2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay
”The many challenges that lie ahead will likely lead to high volatility in the global cycle, in terms of growth and inflation. To weather such an uncertain period a more dynamic asset allocation framework is needed.”
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White papersWhy R-star may rise, and its implications for rates and policy
R-star is the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is at full employment. If the central bank sets its policy rate below R-star, then its monetary policy position is accommodative. The Fed currently believes R-star is about 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the Fed’s calculation of 2% a decade ago.
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BlogA Most Hawkish Hike by the ECB
The ECB’s June rate hike and its confirmation of a faster balance sheet reduction were in line with expectations. However, President Lagarde’s decidedly more hawkish tone was a surprise.
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White papersCan We Refocus on Fundamentals Now?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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White papersA hawkish hold as the best outcome for asset prices
The Fed decided to leave the federal funds target rate unchanged, a hawkish hold that provides the flexibility to hike again if needed—or adopt a more dovish outlook should growth and inflation data warrant that approach.
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White papersSchroders Capital Global Real Estate Lens June 2023: your go-to guide to global property markets
Our latest analysis highlights the key data and trends that matter to global real estate investors.
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White papers“Investing at a Crossroads” Revisited
Nine months ago, we set out a playbook for the transition to the new investing environment—here’s why it still applies as the rates cycle peaks and inflation eases.
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White papersStubbornly high inflation sends bond yields higher
UK inflation fell by less than forecast in April, Wednesday’s data revealed, prompting expectations of further interest rate hikes, and pushing bond yields to their highest levels since October.
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White papersIs the Fed rate-hike pause still likely?
2023 was to be a relatively well telegraphed year, as opposed to 2022 which took investors by surprise. The idea was simple: in 2022, central banks had raised a wall of interest rates to protect our economies from a wave of inflation not seen since the 1970s. These rate hikes were to cause a slowdown in economic growth during 2023 without plunging the world into a deep recession – the ‘soft landing’ scenario.
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White papersInflation Quarterly Monitor
In March, the UK Debt Management Office (DMO) announced its borrowing remit for fiscal year 23/24, alongside the Office for Budget Responsibility’s updated forecasts for gross financing. A small downward revision of £3.3 billion was made to the remit in April, resulting in less short and long dated conventional gilts being raised via auctions but no change to inflation-linked gilts.
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White papersThe case for a higher-inflation regime
Financial markets are convinced headline inflation rates will fall sharply towards central bank targets over the next two years, with stable expectations in the medium to longer term.
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White papersIs the long-term case for emerging market debt still intact?
2022 was a difficult year for fixed income in general, including emerging market debt, amid high inflation and aggressive rate hikes by central banks. While the global backdrop remains a headwind for emerging markets, relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals in the major EM countries, combined with high starting yields and undervalued exchange rates within local currency debt should provide a buffer to any further volatility.
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White papersInvesting in quality credit for net zero
An eventful start to 2023 saw sticky inflation and a banking crisis on the macro front, and further government action in climate policy. We review the landscape for corporate bond investors in the net-zero transition during an action-packed first quarter.
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White papersHow shiny does gold look when anticipating a soft landing?
Since 2022, many of the doubts about using commodities as a source of diversification have been dispelled, after years of underperformance - a ‘decade for nothing’ in these markets, between technological evolutions and geopolitical developments.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - June 2023
”The disconnect within the growth and inflation mix and the market hope for the Fed to quickly turn to an easing stance call for a prudent stance on risky assets and further favours bonds and cash.”
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White papersSpecial situations: Distressed debt in testing economic terrain
After a 2022 when primary markets were much more selective than in previous years, and on the backdrop of rising interest rates, a number of companies may find themselves struggling to refinance debt when facing a maturity wall in 2024 and 2025.
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White papersWhat the Austrian school of economics got wrong
At the dawn or dusk of every recession, the time comes for some to reopen the Austrian economic textbooks (well, grimoire might be more appropriate). And on such occasions, the time to close them arises promptly.
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PodcastThe Many Facets of Japanese Investing
Japan, an outlier across the G10 nations, is truly an intriguing economy. While rates continue to remain high in many other developed markets, the Bank of Japan still employs its accommodative monetary policy and sees a lower impact of inflation. Given this unique backdrop, what can Japan offer to its investors?
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White papersIs the Consumer Cracking?
News from the consumer sector reveals intriguing trends, as well as the importance of credit and security selection in today’s complex market environment.
