All Inflation articles – Page 25
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White papers
Inflation, disinflation, inflection Who is right?
The market narrative remains focused on a single topic – inflation – but the overall picture is markedly different to that of late 2022. Equity, credit and rates markets are not synchronised in their pricing or probabilities of the outcomes from here. This conflicting picture of significant rate cuts just around the corner, dovetailing nicely with median levels of credit spreads and a somewhat lofty equity multiple valuation backdrop, leave us asking: ‘Who is right?’
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White papers
High yield: charting a steady course through roiling seas
Banking stresses have added volatility to markets already coping with rising rates and recession fears. Still, with corporate fundamentals sound, high yield investors and issuers are more cautious than fearful.
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White papers
Virulent inflation may have peaked – but does further danger lurk?
Markets speak to the fluidity of the environment around them. Over the past year, they’ve delivered verdicts on government economic programmes, central bank monetary policy and the energy sector – but how are the markets perceiving inflation today since it became structural a year ago?
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White papers
Another One and Done?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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White papers
Fixed Income Perspectives April 2023
Markets appeared optimistic amid strong macro indicators until early March, when the collapse of two US regional banks and forced sale of Credit Suisse led to a risk-off sentiment.
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White papers
History Doesn’t Repeat, but It Often Rhymes
Diversification is often key to navigating down markets, but focusing on the mix of stocks and bonds may not be enough.
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White papers
Lower service productivity, higher inflation?
If there is one word that our media has been able to relay in recent months, it is inflation. Price growth was the market’s problem in 2021 and it has become the public’s problem in no time. Whereas in previous periods of rising inflation, the arrival of the topic in the mainstream media more or less marked the end of the problem – let’s remember the worrying inflation of the summer of 2008 or the first quarter of 2011– this time, it is quite different.
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White papers
Infrastructure remains resilient despite macro challenges, April 2023
Tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shifted the macro landscape to the point where a global recession is possible in 2023.
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White papers
A New ‘Impossible Trilemma’?
Can we lower government debt, sustain positive real rates and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy?
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White papers
Fixed Income Investment Outlook: 2Q 2023
Aggressive monetary pressure finally saw meaningful impact in the first quarter, in the form of a bank liquidity crisis that required swift intervention by regulators to limit contagion.
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White papers
Occupier demand delivers clear opportunities for lenders
Post-Covid, occupiers’ demand for best-in-class office buildings is presenting an opportunity for lenders, argues Dan Riches, Real Estate Debt Co-Head at M&G Investments, in this recent interview.
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Podcast
Outerblue Talks Research - Financial stability concerns bring US recession concerns back to the fore
The banking turmoil of the past month saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the 160-year old Credit Suisse being taken over by rival UBS. While the big market swings triggered by these events have now subsided, economic scars appear inevitable.
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White papers
Slowly Slowing
One year since the inception of our Stagflation Shock scenario, the global economy continues to face elevated inflation and falling growth. Both are slowing, but they are slowing—slowly. And the descent has not been smooth.
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White papers
What the ‘next normal’ means for fixed income: reimagining core bonds
After three years of COVID, roller-coaster economies, inflation and central banks’ frantic fight against an uncertain future, it appears we may finally return to the world we used to know. The “new normal” – where rates are low, volatility subdued, and investors are willing to take on more risk – could yet return. But can it be so simple? After all the upheaval, are we really returning to the pre-COVID era?
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White papers
Global Macro Outlook - Second Quarter 2023
Besides inflation and tight monetary policy, a banking crisis has added to investor anxieties. The bank turmoil won’t likely be a drag to global financial markets. But it does argue for caution when combined with our broader expectations of a sustained period of below-trend growth.
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White papers
Schroders Global Real Estate Lens April 2023: your go-to guide to global property markets
Our latest analysis highlights the key data and trends that matter to global real estate investors.
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White papers
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - April 2023
”The tightening in credit conditions should reduce core inflationary pressures, partly replacing the need for monetary policy action.”
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White papers
Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession
Recent stress in parts of the banking sector will raise funding costs and reduce lending to many sectors. Now we expect the US economy to shrink by - 1.1% in 2023, driven by a contraction in domestic demand. Eurozone growth should stagnate amid inflation remaining high.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2023
Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession.
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White papers
Primonial REIM Real Estate Convictions Q1 2023
The unexpected resilience of the European economy has led to an improvement in the business perspectives for 2023. However, the ECB has once again chosen to increase its interest rates to limit the impact of inflation, which is expected to decrease by the end of the year.