All Inflation articles – Page 28
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White papersFor the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
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White papers1-2 November FOMC meeting: debating a downshift, not a pivot
As widely expected, on 2 November, the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds rate by 75bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The action marked the fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike this year. Investors initially interpreted the accompanying statement as dovish by selling the dollar and buying US Treasuries and equities.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2022
Tightening monetary policy and slowing economic growth lead us to keep a cautious stance on risk assets, in light of potential liquidity and refinancing issues, particularly in low quality credit. We prefer US IG (over HY) segments and selectively like EM hard currency debt.
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White papersNot a Pivot
Inflation is resilient and rates keep rising. Our central Stagflation Shock scenario, with persistent inflation and slower growth, continues to play out, though there is mounting evidence inflation may be resistant to policy tightening. Smaller hikes would indicate success, not a pivot in central banks’ resolve.
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White papersNew reality for investors: 5 big trends changing markets
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets.
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White papersInflation hedging ability of natural capital investments
The current economic environment highlights the importance for investors to design portfolios that protect against inflation. This paper uses historical data to analyze the ability of timberland and farmland investments to act as a hedge against inflation over time and even for different species and crop types.
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White papersInflation, energy and real estate
Inflation has moved rapidly from overlooked to top-of-mind this year.
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White papersRecession watch: triggers, outlook and what next for central banks
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact.
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White papersNavigating dark clouds across emerging markets debt
It has been an unrelenting year of negative headlines, with a war in Ukraine, inflation concerns and recession fears jolting investors into a frenzy. Capital Group Investment Director David Cheng sat down with Portfolio Manager Luis Freitas de Oliveira to discuss his thoughts on the challenging macro backdrop, the investment implications for emerging markets debt (EMD) and how, in his view, the asset class remains investable amid the growing headwinds.
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White papersThe unequal impact of inflation: How governments are responding
Inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in most international economies, both developing and emerging. Most recently it has been driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has significantly impacted food and energy prices. However, beyond the headline measures of inflation, the effect of rising food and energy prices typically has a greater impact on lower-income countries, households and individuals.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - November 2022
Central banks (CBs) are trying to work out how far they should go in terms of their aggressive tightening talk. We see four main factors to consider when assessing whether we will see pivots from CBs: (1) The still strong job market does not support a shift in stance from the Fed.
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BlogEuropean High Yield—Planning for Yields to Peak Soon
In the first of a series of European high yield posts, we assess the sector’s compelling characteristics and compare them to our expectations for monetary policy and inflation.
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BlogEuropean High Yield in the Era of Inflation
In our third post on the opportunities in European high yield, we place this year’s jump in yields in the context of our expectations for inflation to peak soon and decline thereafter.
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White papersHow do institutions segment their investment universe?
In the first papers of this series, we addressed the issues of how institutional investors should set their investment objectives – a key element of any Investment Policy Statement (IPS) – and how to articulate their asset allocation across different horizons.
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White papersIG Credit: Strong Fundamentals, But Inflationary Pressures Grow
Current yield and spread levels, coupled with companies’ durable credit profiles, suggest that IG corporate credit continues to look attractive—but a number of risks remain on the horizon.
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White papersIs This ‘Nightmare on Wall Street’ Coming to an End?
Do corporate earnings disappointments signal a weaker economy and easing inflation pressures, which could end this scary market—or are there more twists to come?
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White papersInflation, valuations and ESG reporting challenges
In June, Tell Media Group, in cooperation with Nuveen and Principal Global Investors, organised a roundtable discussion on real estate investing in Helsinki. Tell Media Group founder Niklas Tell and FBNW editor Janina Sibelius moderated the discussion
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White papersInflation still stubbornly high despite central bank hikes
Eurozone inflation reached 9.9% in September while UK consumer prices hit 10.1% amid rising food costs.
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PodcastAll The Credit, Ep. 34 - Supply Chain Strain Reframe
Guillermo Felices explains our proprietary inflation model and provides an update on the direction and level of inflation that we’re expecting in 2023.
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White papersHow do renewables perform in a stagflationary environment?
Renewable assets could show themselves to be more resilient to a high inflation-low growth backdrop than more traditional assets. Here’s why.
