All Inflation articles – Page 32
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White papersTowards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor view
In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies. This use of fiscal space should also help manage investors’ expectations, in order to minimise the risk of ‘sunspot equilibria’, where investors’ beliefs cause prices to diverge from fundamentals.
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White papersInflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2022
Central bank monetary tightening has arrived, with a resulting shift upward in market interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year. In this environment we are seeing opportunities across credit sectors. Continued macro volatility will keep spreads “two-way,” while positive underlying fundamentals across a range of sectors should provide support.
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White papersReal Estate: Built to Withstand Both Inflation and a Slowdown
Real estate could serve as a foundation for portfolios in an environment of high inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth, and investing at the real estate company level can offer valuable advantages during a time of market uncertainty.
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White papersWhiplash!
Hard economic data has remained strong, but recession risks are on the rise. Combined with limited forward guidance from Central Banks, this has left markets to have to decipher what each data print will mean for monetary policy and the path of rates.
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White papersUnwavering Resolve
Central banks are increasingly worried they might be losing an inflation battle that could now be generational, so expect them to get much more aggressive to catch up.
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VideoBuilding resilient portfolios amid inflation
After a thirty-year hiatus, inflation has become one of the main risks for investors to manage leading to other concerns that come along with uncertain markets.
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White papersBonds regain their shine amid a turbulent time
Brandywine Global: Prudent credit selection often requires investment expertise with a nuanced understanding of the business, economic and political environment across different geographies.
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White papersUK Leadership Change: Economic and market implications
After the resignation of Boris Johnson as prime minister, what is your outlook regarding British political development?
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White papersRenminbi’s rise will not challenge dollar dominance
A sharp economic slowdown seems to be looming in both Europe and the US, which would make bond markets attractive again, especially in the US. Conversely, the Chinese economy is expected to reaccelerate. International monetary system set to become multipolar as geopolitical factors are likely to prevail.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - July/August 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July/August 2022
United States: signs of decelerating growth are increasing as high inflation bites into consumers’ disposable income and companies’ margins. While we do not see activity contracting in Q2, risks to our projections remain on the downside. We do expect the US economy to grow below potential between now and yearend and to remain on a similar sub-par growth trajectory into 2023, as tighter monetary policy impacts the most interestrate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
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White papersThe ECB’s ability to raise rates will depend on the strength of the antifragmentation tool
The ECB is determined to tighten its monetary policy in the face of record high inflation levels. However, it is addressing that risk by cooling inflation down or pushing the economy into recession or triggering a spike in peripheral debt borrowing costs, as in 2012.
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White papersEnergy Fuels European Inflation & Rate Fears
U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.
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White papersThe U.S. Federal Reserve is about to Raise Rates: Keep Calm
With widespread inflation persisting in many western economies, the United States, United Kingdom and to a lesser degree, the Eurozone are moving up the curve of hawkish monetary policy. Emerging from the pandemic-induced lockdowns, the initial burst of inflation was largely driven by so-called base effects as prices were being compared to artificially low prices in 2020 due to the dramatic disruption of aggregate demand.
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White papersInto the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
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White papersThe ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
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White papersThe Decisive Eye: A strategic bulletin on issues and opportunities in European real assets
The world economy is experiencing a level of inflation not seen since the oil price shock of the early 1980s with policymakers dusting off old playbooks to ensure price increases do not become deeply entrenched.
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White papersCentral bank watch: Ramping up the inflation fight
The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Central Bank Watch is a qualitative assessment of the central banks for the Group of Ten nations plus China and South Korea.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July 2022
Dramatic price action has taken place over the past weeks in equities and bonds, following hot inflation prints, central bank (CB) actions and rising concerns over economic growth. These events are a reminder of the regime shift, in which we are witnessing the resurgence of stagflationary risks and central banks trying to assert their credibility.
