All Inflation articles – Page 31
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White papersInvestment Outlook – Positive but tempered return expectations
There were few places to hide in 2022. Inflation, monetary policy tightening and geopolitical risks marked a stark contrast to the drivers of returns in 2020 and 2021; the backdrop ultimately forced a revaluation of fixed income and equity assets. From low to high inflation, and from low to high interest rates, returns suffered as markets adjusted to the new paradigm.
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White papersPension funds: reorienting asset allocation in an inflation-fuelled world
After a prolonged era of cheap money and double-digit returns, the sharp spike in inflation to its 40-year high in 2022 was a game changer.
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White papersMacro outlook – The clouds around the inflation peak
The inflation shock has defined 2022. Not primarily because as usual, by eroding purchasing power and corporate margins it has hampered consumption and investment – private spending has been remarkably resilient actually in the developed world given the circumstances – but because it has marked the end of an era for monetary policy.
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White papersHow is private credit positioned to circumnavigate the challenges ahead?
In the current inflationary, rising rate environment, private credit may be well-placed to help steer through the various challenges ahead due to its largely floating-rate nature, as well as other attractive structural features.
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White papersGaining exposure to inflation: linkers versus swaps
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we explore the different options for hedging inflation via fixed income products and outline why we believe investors should favour inflation swaps.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2022
Markets have seen some relief in a year that overall is likely to be remembered as among the most challenging for investors. But the negative trend reverted somewhat with gains for the S&P 500 and select Treasury Indices.
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White papersInvesting in 2022, a year of regime change
Like financial risk, change can also cluster. Revisiting our CIO views published over 2022, we consider the seismic shifts in the investment landscape and how our strategies adapted dynamically to the new environment to make the best of it for investors.
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White papersDivergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
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White papersMarkets bounce on hopes US inflation has peaked
The US inflation rate cooled to 7.7% in October, weaker than many forecasts, to hit its lowest level since January.
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White papersAhead of the Curve, Q4 2022
In our quarterly macroeconomic update, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist, provides her outlook for the global economy amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures and mounting fears of a recession. Is there still ground for optimism? Read our update to find out more.
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White papersCentral banks ramp up rates in shadow of recession
US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bps for fourth time in a row this week, while the Bank of England’s 75bps hike was its largest for three decades.
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White papersUS Inflation Reduction Act: a strong force to accelerate energy transition technologies
In August, the US passed a major milestone in climate policy with the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As the largest piece of federal legislation ever to address climate change, we believe it will have a profound effect across industries for decades to come.
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White papersThe pursuit of consistent income streams
Generating income is a key role of fixed income. For investors, the durability of income streams becomes more important amid heightened volatility in both equity and bond markets.
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White papersHow Long Will 75bps Stay in Vogue?
After an initial dovish reading of the FOMC statement, Jay Powell’s tone was firmly hawkish and led to a reversal in risk sentiment and a higher market-implied terminal rate. While the BoE also hiked 75bps, the bank signaled a lower endpoint. All eyes are on inflation data next week.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - November 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersFor the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
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White papers1-2 November FOMC meeting: debating a downshift, not a pivot
As widely expected, on 2 November, the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds rate by 75bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The action marked the fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike this year. Investors initially interpreted the accompanying statement as dovish by selling the dollar and buying US Treasuries and equities.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2022
Tightening monetary policy and slowing economic growth lead us to keep a cautious stance on risk assets, in light of potential liquidity and refinancing issues, particularly in low quality credit. We prefer US IG (over HY) segments and selectively like EM hard currency debt.
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White papersNot a Pivot
Inflation is resilient and rates keep rising. Our central Stagflation Shock scenario, with persistent inflation and slower growth, continues to play out, though there is mounting evidence inflation may be resistant to policy tightening. Smaller hikes would indicate success, not a pivot in central banks’ resolve.
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White papersNew reality for investors: 5 big trends changing markets
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets.
