All Inflation articles – Page 31
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White papersGlobal Equity ESG Fund, H1 Report 2022
For long-term investors, the story is essentially unchanged, in fact, falling markets offer more attractive valuations on high-quality companies with a competitive edge.
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White papersOn my mind: The Fed - do you hear me now?
Fed Chairman Powell delivered a forceful and unequivocal message today at Jackson Hole, pushing back against market expectations of an early pivot back to rate cuts.
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White papersMarkets Testing Central Bank Resolve
Despite hawkish comments by Fed officials this week, markets continue to price in a more dovish path for rates. The BoE hiked 50bps and downgraded its economic outlook, calling for a U.K. recession in Q4. Eyes will be on U.S. CPI next week to gauge whether inflation is peaking.
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White papersEmerging market debt: Looking for opportunities in challenging circumstances
Persistently high global inflation has forced the world’s leading central banks to start tightening monetary policy. However, the prices of many of the most vulnerable emerging market bond issuers are now quoted close to – and in some cases lower – than their expected recovery value.
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White papers*Global tensions: Investment strategies for uncertain markets*
Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are threatening market stability, yet many investors remain unprepared for the challenging times ahead. Private markets and private debt offer an attractive alternative.
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White papers*Can private markets help investors ride the inflation wave?*
Demographics, repetitive bouts of fiscal stimulus, and deglobalisation are among the factors pointing to prolonged higher inflation. Can private markets help investors sustain returns?
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White papersGlobal REITs Through Economic Cycles
As inflation continues to run at multi-decade highs around the globe, central banks continue to increase their pace at removing accommodation. The Bank of Canada, The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all hiked interest rates by 50bps in the month of June, with even the Swiss National Bank surprising the market with a like-kind increase.
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White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q3 2022
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term.
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White papersRecession Semantics
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively.
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White papersGeopolitics vs. the race to net zero
The Ukraine crisis is a horrendous tragedy and the war will have a considerable impact on the European and global economy. It has brought sharply into focus the fragility of supply chains and energy security - which has manifested in runaway inflation.
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White papersHigher inflation, recession more likely
In our mid-year Macro Perspectives, our economists discuss whether a stagflation (inflation plus slowing growth) scenario can be avoided, and where investors might find opportunity—or at least temporary shelter.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives - July 2022
The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after the market sell-off this year, we are exercising caution given greater uncertainty and elevated recession risk.
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White papersFed prayer becomes a plea
The Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team opines on what to expect from the Fed, gauges the probabilities of a recession and implications for asset markets.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Third Quarter 2022
The global economic outlook deteriorated sharply in the second quarter and markets are increasingly concerned that higher rates will lead to a recession. This outcome isn’t a certainty, but the probability of slower or negative growth has increased materially as inflation has stayed high.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2022
The first sequence of the double bear markets (in equities and long-term bonds) adjusting to the end of easy money and rising inflation is almost complete. Now, the narrative has changed, with a shift in focus to deceleration of growth vs fears of inflation.
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White papersJuly 26-27 FOMC Review: Maintaining a Hawkish Course
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%, the second consecutive 75bp rate hike. The Fed rate decision was widely expected. With today’s rate hike, the fed funds rate is within the 2 to 3% range of estimates of the long-term “neutral” rate. However, as Chair Powell reminded us during his press conference, policy needs to go beyond neutral into restrictive territory this year in order to reduce inflation.
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PodcastThe Investment Podcast: How much inflation protection can real estate offer?
Like every asset class, the real estate sector is grappling with spiralling inflation and rising interest rates. In times like these, real estate has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation, but does it still hold true in the context of what has driven today’s inflationary picture?
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White papersCompass - Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast
Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers’ approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility. The European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps is a case in point.
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White papersOn my mind: Are we there yet?
Are we there yet? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hedged himself carefully at the July press conference; markets heard it as confirming expectations that we are closing in on the terminal rate and that the Fed will likely start cutting again as early as March of next year. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai is not so sure—here are her thoughts:
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White papers*Mid-year outlook takeaways – Chronicle of a recession foretold*
Investor surveys, and now the US yield curve, indicate a high likelihood of a recession in the US. The question seems not whether there will be a recession, but when. Economist forecasts and earnings growth estimates, however, suggest a recession is not so certain. With growth already slowing more quickly than expected, markets are assuming central banks will not hike policy rates as much as was thought. But inflation may not fall enough to make that possible.
