All Inflation articles – Page 33
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White papersInvesting in 2022, a year of regime change
Like financial risk, change can also cluster. Revisiting our CIO views published over 2022, we consider the seismic shifts in the investment landscape and how our strategies adapted dynamically to the new environment to make the best of it for investors.
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White papersDivergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
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White papersMarkets bounce on hopes US inflation has peaked
The US inflation rate cooled to 7.7% in October, weaker than many forecasts, to hit its lowest level since January.
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White papersAhead of the Curve, Q4 2022
In our quarterly macroeconomic update, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist, provides her outlook for the global economy amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures and mounting fears of a recession. Is there still ground for optimism? Read our update to find out more.
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White papersCentral banks ramp up rates in shadow of recession
US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bps for fourth time in a row this week, while the Bank of England’s 75bps hike was its largest for three decades.
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White papersUS Inflation Reduction Act: a strong force to accelerate energy transition technologies
In August, the US passed a major milestone in climate policy with the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As the largest piece of federal legislation ever to address climate change, we believe it will have a profound effect across industries for decades to come.
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White papersThe pursuit of consistent income streams
Generating income is a key role of fixed income. For investors, the durability of income streams becomes more important amid heightened volatility in both equity and bond markets.
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White papersHow Long Will 75bps Stay in Vogue?
After an initial dovish reading of the FOMC statement, Jay Powell’s tone was firmly hawkish and led to a reversal in risk sentiment and a higher market-implied terminal rate. While the BoE also hiked 75bps, the bank signaled a lower endpoint. All eyes are on inflation data next week.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - November 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersFor the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
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White papers1-2 November FOMC meeting: debating a downshift, not a pivot
As widely expected, on 2 November, the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds rate by 75bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The action marked the fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike this year. Investors initially interpreted the accompanying statement as dovish by selling the dollar and buying US Treasuries and equities.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2022
Tightening monetary policy and slowing economic growth lead us to keep a cautious stance on risk assets, in light of potential liquidity and refinancing issues, particularly in low quality credit. We prefer US IG (over HY) segments and selectively like EM hard currency debt.
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White papersNot a Pivot
Inflation is resilient and rates keep rising. Our central Stagflation Shock scenario, with persistent inflation and slower growth, continues to play out, though there is mounting evidence inflation may be resistant to policy tightening. Smaller hikes would indicate success, not a pivot in central banks’ resolve.
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White papersNew reality for investors: 5 big trends changing markets
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets.
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White papersInflation hedging ability of natural capital investments
The current economic environment highlights the importance for investors to design portfolios that protect against inflation. This paper uses historical data to analyze the ability of timberland and farmland investments to act as a hedge against inflation over time and even for different species and crop types.
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White papersInflation, energy and real estate
Inflation has moved rapidly from overlooked to top-of-mind this year.
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White papersRecession watch: triggers, outlook and what next for central banks
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact.
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White papersNavigating dark clouds across emerging markets debt
It has been an unrelenting year of negative headlines, with a war in Ukraine, inflation concerns and recession fears jolting investors into a frenzy. Capital Group Investment Director David Cheng sat down with Portfolio Manager Luis Freitas de Oliveira to discuss his thoughts on the challenging macro backdrop, the investment implications for emerging markets debt (EMD) and how, in his view, the asset class remains investable amid the growing headwinds.
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White papersThe unequal impact of inflation: How governments are responding
Inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in most international economies, both developing and emerging. Most recently it has been driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has significantly impacted food and energy prices. However, beyond the headline measures of inflation, the effect of rising food and energy prices typically has a greater impact on lower-income countries, households and individuals.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - November 2022
Central banks (CBs) are trying to work out how far they should go in terms of their aggressive tightening talk. We see four main factors to consider when assessing whether we will see pivots from CBs: (1) The still strong job market does not support a shift in stance from the Fed.
