We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
Risks remain skewed to the downside in the short term, but it would take a combination of several risk factors to trigger the downside scenario at the 12-18 month horizon. At this horizon, we believe that the downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices, a ceasefire in Ukraine, and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below
