All Strategies articles
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White papersThree strategies for investing amid AI whiplash
The debate over artificial intelligence has taken a sharp turn. Initial exuberance over AI’s transformative potential sparked investor fears of an AI bubble. But that concern has now been overshadowed by anxiety that the AI juggernaut will steamroll large segments of the global economy.
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White papersBeyond Bonds: The role Hedge Funds could play in portfolios
Investors over the past few years have had to grapple with elevated geopolitical challenges and uncertainty both over the direction and level of interest rates across the globe. While equity markets have attained record highs, albeit buffeted by the occasional bouts of volatility the same cannot be said for fixed income markets.
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White papersOut of the Black Box: Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs via Conditional Probabilities
Autoregressive LLMs generate text by sampling from estimated probability distributions over the next token, conditional on preceding context. We leverage these conditional probabilities to construct an entropy-based measure of prediction uncertainty, which we term inner confidence. Predictions with higher inner confidence are systematically more accurate.
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White papersPure momentum
Momentum trading strategies exploit return persistence, but conventional past-year cumulative-return measures generate a noisy signal that attenuates performance. We propose a pure momentum strategy that identifies trends directly from daily returns. Our method reduces volatility, tail risk, and transaction costs while enhancing profitability. Performance is primarily driven by long positions in winners, supporting theories postulating overconfidence. The bad news, instead, appears to be incorporated more slowly. In particular, we show that omitting the most recent month is unnecessary to identify winners.
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PodcastIran: A temporary shock or a persistent shift? - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions
The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi’s investment views.
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White papersMDT: A day in the life of a quant investor
Just what is it that quant managers do? We asked Dan Mahr, Head of Federated Hermes’ MDT Advisers, exactly that question and his response was enlightening. One thing we learned: it’s not all algorithms and machine learning – the human interface is important too.
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White papers20 years of Euro LDI funds: A proven foundation now widely supporting European pension schemes
Liability-driven investment (LDI) has transformed from a Dutch regulatory response into a mature, pan European framework for pension risk management. Today, Irish and German schemes are increasingly drawing on this long established expertise to strengthen balance sheet stability and prepare their plans for the next stage of their evolution.
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White papersIntegrating Geopolitical Risk Into Low Volatility Factor Construction
Financial markets respond not only to quantitative fundamentals but also to narratives that shape investor perceptions of risk, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. While the low volatility factor has demonstrated robust risk adjusted performance across markets, its construction is typically static and does not account for narrative-driven fluctuations in risk.
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PodcastRenewable energy in focus amid the energy shock
What do current events in the Middle East mean for the clean energy sector? How can vulnerability to fossil fuel shocks be reduced?
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White papersFive reasons active adds value in government bonds
It is time to consider global government bonds; with credit spreads around their all-time tights and equity markets looking expensive, global government bonds are beginning to get the attention they deserve. Starting yields are meaningfully higher than they’ve been over the course of the 2010s and early 2020s, enhancing the return potential of the asset class and supporting its role as a credible source of income, diversification and capital protection.
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White papersLeveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights: Markets Hit an AI Inflection Point.
The leveraged finance market is currently grappling with an “AI inflection point,” where the early promise of greater efficiency is giving way to a more uncertain outlook, with potential AI-related pressures on revenues and margins. This shift has introduced a sense of anxiety as investors increasingly scrutinize the actual cost of adoption on an issuer-by-issuer basis.
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White papersMarkets on a roller coaster
“The market response to the Middle East crisis has been driven chiefly by concerns about inflation. This episode reaffirms our view that investors should remain diversified and maintain multiple layers of resilience and quality within portfolios.”
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2026
Topic of the month - Mapping the fallout: Iran, oil, and global markets
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WebinarPlayback | How to navigate market volatility sparked by the Iran war?
During this webinar, our experts Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist, and Silvia Di Silvio, Senior Cross Asset Macro Strategist, Amundi Investment Institute explored likely economic outlooks and the implications for different asset classes in light of recent events in the Middle East and the resulting increase in market volatility.
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White papersStewardship in a Fractured World: EOS Annual Review 2025
EOS at Federated Hermes Limited publishes 2025 Annual Review, with full engagement and voting highlights.
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White papersFrom Memes to Themes: Addressing Emergent Risk
The meme stock craze was a reminder that risk isn’t a static concept. It evolves with global events, technology, and policy changes. Traditional risk metrics are useful, but they often fail to capture thematic risks.
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WebinarPlayback | Implications of US-Israel strikes on Iran
During this webinar, our experts Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute & Chief Strategist, and Didier Borowski, Head of Macro Policy Research explored potential scenarios, assessed the outlook for energy markets and inflation, and examined the regional and cross-asset implications for investors.
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White papersLet your bonds work smarter
Active management can turn fixed income into a more purposeful allocation
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White papersEMEA Investment grade examined 2026 – The importance of portfolio construction
While credit markets proved to be relatively resilient in the face of multiple geopolitical events, there is no guarantee that this will always be the case. So, how do we see credit markets against such a backdrop?
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White papersBack to basics: Why the time is right for multi-asset investing
Multi-asset investing is all about diversification. Diversification – sometimes referred to as the only free lunch in finance – embeds the idea that if a portfolio holds various asset classes, each with their own return drivers, the outcome is a smoother return profile.
