All Inflation articles – Page 29
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White papersFixed Income: the road ahead
Recent crises within US regional banks and the more idiosyn- cratic case of Credit Suisse have various underlying causes. However, the overall context of these issues is undoubtedly the sudden and significant tightening of financial conditions in the past year.
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White papersWhere next for inflation?
Inflation is by far the most crucial investment consideration today, yet it’s not all bad news for long-term investors. In this paper, our Research, ESG and Investment teams explain the factors shaping their inflation outlook, the dynamics behind resilient equity markets, why ESG and sustainable development is here to stay despite short- term price pressures, and where to find investment opportunities in today’s uncertain environment.
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White papersInflation, disinflation, inflection Who is right?
The market narrative remains focused on a single topic – inflation – but the overall picture is markedly different to that of late 2022. Equity, credit and rates markets are not synchronised in their pricing or probabilities of the outcomes from here. This conflicting picture of significant rate cuts just around the corner, dovetailing nicely with median levels of credit spreads and a somewhat lofty equity multiple valuation backdrop, leave us asking: ‘Who is right?’
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White papersHigh yield: charting a steady course through roiling seas
Banking stresses have added volatility to markets already coping with rising rates and recession fears. Still, with corporate fundamentals sound, high yield investors and issuers are more cautious than fearful.
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White papersVirulent inflation may have peaked – but does further danger lurk?
Markets speak to the fluidity of the environment around them. Over the past year, they’ve delivered verdicts on government economic programmes, central bank monetary policy and the energy sector – but how are the markets perceiving inflation today since it became structural a year ago?
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives April 2023
Markets appeared optimistic amid strong macro indicators until early March, when the collapse of two US regional banks and forced sale of Credit Suisse led to a risk-off sentiment.
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White papersInfrastructure remains resilient despite macro challenges, April 2023
Tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shifted the macro landscape to the point where a global recession is possible in 2023.
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White papersA New ‘Impossible Trilemma’?
Can we lower government debt, sustain positive real rates and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy?
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 2Q 2023
Aggressive monetary pressure finally saw meaningful impact in the first quarter, in the form of a bank liquidity crisis that required swift intervention by regulators to limit contagion.
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White papersOccupier demand delivers clear opportunities for lenders
Post-Covid, occupiers’ demand for best-in-class office buildings is presenting an opportunity for lenders, argues Dan Riches, Real Estate Debt Co-Head at M&G Investments, in this recent interview.
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PodcastOuterblue Talks Research - Financial stability concerns bring US recession concerns back to the fore
The banking turmoil of the past month saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the 160-year old Credit Suisse being taken over by rival UBS. While the big market swings triggered by these events have now subsided, economic scars appear inevitable.
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White papersSlowly Slowing
One year since the inception of our Stagflation Shock scenario, the global economy continues to face elevated inflation and falling growth. Both are slowing, but they are slowing—slowly. And the descent has not been smooth.
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White papersWhat the ‘next normal’ means for fixed income: reimagining core bonds
After three years of COVID, roller-coaster economies, inflation and central banks’ frantic fight against an uncertain future, it appears we may finally return to the world we used to know. The “new normal” – where rates are low, volatility subdued, and investors are willing to take on more risk – could yet return. But can it be so simple? After all the upheaval, are we really returning to the pre-COVID era?
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Second Quarter 2023
Besides inflation and tight monetary policy, a banking crisis has added to investor anxieties. The bank turmoil won’t likely be a drag to global financial markets. But it does argue for caution when combined with our broader expectations of a sustained period of below-trend growth.
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White papersSchroders Global Real Estate Lens April 2023: your go-to guide to global property markets
Our latest analysis highlights the key data and trends that matter to global real estate investors.
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - April 2023
”The tightening in credit conditions should reduce core inflationary pressures, partly replacing the need for monetary policy action.”
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White papersFinancial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession
Recent stress in parts of the banking sector will raise funding costs and reduce lending to many sectors. Now we expect the US economy to shrink by - 1.1% in 2023, driven by a contraction in domestic demand. Eurozone growth should stagnate amid inflation remaining high.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2023
Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession.
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White papersPrimonial REIM Real Estate Convictions Q1 2023
The unexpected resilience of the European economy has led to an improvement in the business perspectives for 2023. However, the ECB has once again chosen to increase its interest rates to limit the impact of inflation, which is expected to decrease by the end of the year.
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White papersBanking woes take centre stage
We reflect on a tumultuous week in the banking sector as markets take stock of UBS’s bailout of Credit Suisse. Amid echoes of the past, our experts ask: is there more to come?
