All Inflation articles – Page 29
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White papersEDITORIAL: What’s next in these times of uncertainty?
It is a question everyone is asking. Today, we have spiralling inflation, rising energy and living costs and an explosion in construction costs. All industry sectors are impacted by the current crisis and economic slowdown. Any reasonable investor has to be cautious in such an environment.
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White papersDistressed debt in a developing recessionary environment
High inflation is being fuelled by supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic, high energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine and high employment. High inflation is forcing Central Banks to aggressively increase interest rates.
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White papersHow the Inflation Reduction Act boosts listed infrastructure
While its name doesn’t reflect it, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed into law in August 2022 is the most substantial U.S. legislation ever passed pertaining to climate policy. Approximately $370 billion of the $730 billion package is earmarked for energy and climate change programs.
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White papersU.S. Inflation Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot
Inflation rages on in the U.S. and elsewhere as the global economy faces further instability. What will this mean for central banks’ tightening efforts in the coming weeks, and are markets starting to recognize–and react–that it will take more time for prices to come down?
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White papersTighter Conditions Begin to Squeeze the Economy
As the economy slows, an epic climb in short-dated rates and bond yields appears to have shocked investors into accepting the prospect of stickier inflation, but they still seem reluctant to price for substantially lower earnings.
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White papersGlobal CIO Q&A: on inflation, rates, recession and more
Inflation has reached record levels. What do you expect in the upcoming months?
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - October 2022
United States: Growth. We are still calling a soft landing in the US, with an extended period of sub-par growth for 2023 and 2024. We expect the US economy to grow by 0.9% in 2023 (1.1% Q4/Q4) and 1.3% in 2024 (1.3% Q4/Q4). Inflation. Headline inflation has peaked in the ...
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White papersToo early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
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White papersUnited States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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White papersPerspectives in today’s real estate market
Uncertainty has increased globally due to inflation and conflict, but real estate continues to offer long-term thematic tailwinds:
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2022
Geopolitical risks, inflation and hawkish central banks translate into a cautious stance on risk assets such as credit, in which, a deceleration in growth (and its impact on earnings) could create concerns over cash flows and liquidity, especially for the lower rated companies. Hence, we prefer US IG and are defensive on HY.
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White papersWhat role can renewables play in strengthening Europe’s energy security?
Winter threatens to bring the first severe European energy crisis in decades. As leaders grapple with potential solutions, renewable energy capacity is in the spotlight.
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White papersMore Swiss policy tightening, but how?
Concluding seven years of negative interest rates, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) tightened monetary policy at its September meeting, warned that further rate increase could be necessary and joined other global central banks in foreseeing significant risks to the global economy. Lifting base rates by 75bps to 0.50%, the bank also raised its inflation forecasts and unveiled measures to manage excess liquidity.
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White papersPolicy Excesses and Market Discipline
We are seeing bond investors standing up for themselves against policymakers, and while equity investors are experiencing pain from this struggle, the end result may be a more sustainable, fundamentals-based market.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2022
Geopolitical risks have returned to investors’ radar screens with President Putin’s escalation of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, inflation remains in the spotlight: the latest US reading was concerning, causing yields to rise while equity markets tumbled.
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White papersGrowth and evolution of the real estate sector
The current macroeconomic environment is having repercussions for all asset classes. The real estate sector continues to remain strong, offering a good protection hedge to inflation thanks to its robust nature and low correlation to other asset classes.
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White papersCentral banks split by fiscal packages vs inflation
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we analyse the market response to the UK’s latest fiscal stimulus and suggest this situation could be replicated across Europe as winter takes hold.
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White papersClean energy investments: a new addition to the investors’ inflation toolkit?
While investors have typically looked to commodities as an inflation hedge, a lack of income, coupled with volatile prices, has resulted in low risk-adjusted returns. Can direct energy investments help investors guard against rising prices?
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White papersCIO views: what about an outlier scenario?
In the current context of interest rates being higher for longer, what would happen if an extreme situation played out to amplify existing trends? For instance, interest rates rose to 6% or inflation increased to 20% in a developed market?
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White papersPortfolio construction themes in these times of inflation
Investors seeking to put this bear market behind them aren’t out of the woods yet. Hopes that inflation might peak quickly, that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pivot, and that the global economy could emerge unscathed — all have diminished.
