All Inflation articles – Page 34
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White papers
A (stag?)flationary tantrum: assessing the current market sell-off
We are entering a tough phase of the regime shift, as the risks over economic growth add to the already hot inflationary backdrop. This means that stagflation fears will continue to drive the market and risk assets are likely to remain very volatile, particularly the most indebted companies and those with still excessive valuations.
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White papers
The Fed Makes Inflation Fighting Priority Number One
The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points yesterday, to a range between 1.50% and 1.75%, and signaled stronger inflation-fighting measures ahead. We think that policy path will eventually cool inflation—but at a greater cost to economic growth than the Fed expects. And financial markets will likely stay volatile for a while.
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White papers
Global real estate outlook: The impact of rising inflation
As prices surge to their highest levels in decades, the impact of rising inflation is a concern for investors everywhere. As downside risks have increased, real estate markets are dealing with the impact of rising debt and construction costs, as well as potential asset repricing.
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White papers
The Fed presses harder on the brakes
Financial conditions continue to tighten, but perhaps not fast enough. Job creation remains strong and consumer spending and inflation are running hot, so the Fed accelerated its rate of interest rate increases, hiking by 75 basis points at its June meeting.
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White papers
A focus on inflation
The conflict in Ukraine has delivered a commodity price shock similar to that of the early 1970s, shattering hopes that the inflationary uptick may prove to be transitory.
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White papers
A Scenic But Treacherous Trail
Aggressive central bank tightening and declining purchasing power suggest the slowdown in growth should be steep, and faster than the inflation slowdown.
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White papers
The embarrassing legacy of financial capitalism: implications for investors
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous regime (the one initiated under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker), namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and more recently inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papers
Shifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capital misallocation
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous ‘Volckerian’ regime, namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and, more recently, inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papers
The Path From the Peak
With inflation still above-trend, prices rising for necessities, central banks tightening policy, and fallout from China’s zero-COVID policy, we will watch for a sharp slowdown in growth over the 12–18 month outlook.
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White papers
The myth of the fiscal free lunch: beware of the trap. An investor’s viewpoint
The idea that there is a comfortable degree of budgetary room for more active fiscal policy goes hand-in-hand with the assumption that a sustained bond correction (higher safe real interest rate) is not only unjustified based on fundamentals, but is also impossible. This comes as no surprise. On average throughout modern history, safe real interest rates have been lower than the GDP growth rate, making it easier to finance public deficits.
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White papers
Shifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch for investors
The conversation regarding whether there is room for more aggressive fiscal policy is a hot political topic today. In the US, the debate is likely to become even more inflamed as we approach the midterm elections. In fact, these are at risk of becoming an evaluation of President Biden’s policies in light of the excessive fiscal spending carried out in response to the Covid pandemic (and its subsequent impact on the economy).
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White papers
Shifts & Narratives #18 - The power of narratives for investors
A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention. Narratives are rooted in popular beliefs and are not necessarily from economists’ minds.
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Podcast
The Inflation Playbook
How does today’s inflation compare to history and how are higher CPI numbers impacting economic growth? What can central bankers do to combat inflation? And how can investors navigate this environment? Dr. Christopher Smart weighs in on these questions and more.
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White papers
Inflation fighters: The case for real assets
Allocating to listed real assets may help investors better manage inflation risks—while also enhancing diversification potential and risk-adjusted returns.
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White papers
Repricings & Reopening Trigger Shopping Center Outperformance
Despite the significant challenge of record high inflation, real retail sales in the Eurozone are projected to grow at 1.2% pa in 2022-26. This is a return to its long term post GFC trend and reflects the low consumer sentiment as well as high employment.
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White papers
Market snapshot: Recession fears grow as central banks step up inflation fight
The Fed cut rates by half a percentage point for the first time in two decades. The yield on US 10-year treasuries edged above 3% this week as traders reacted to tightening monetary policy and ongoing uncertainty.
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White papers
Market snapshot: Equities tumble as inflation reality bites
The latest US inflation data released this week sent ripples through markets, as investors took stock of the fact that despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts, consumer prices remain stubbornly high.
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White papers
Market snapshot: Slowdown fears send equities spinning
Many analysts are revising growth forecasts for China as strict lockdowns in the world’s second largest economy stymie business activity. A soft landing looks increasingly unlikely as central banks struggle to calibrate a policy response that addresses high inflation without killing the economic expansion.
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White papers
Is ‘quality’ a shield against inflation?
During the 3Q 2021 earnings calls, many companies raised a ‘red flag’ for inflation. An industry study by Bank of America Global Research assessed the number of times ‘inflation’ was mentioned by European businesses on these calls.
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White papers
Europe’s investment outlook clouded by Ukraine, inflation shocks
The recovery in Eurozone economies from the COVID-19 pandemic has given way to concerns about inflation, higher interest rates and the impact of the war in Ukraine. Reliance on Russian oil and gas has highlighted Europe’s energy security concerns and delivered significant increases in living costs to households.