All Inflation articles – Page 34
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White papersToo early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
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White papersUnited States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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White papersPerspectives in today’s real estate market
Uncertainty has increased globally due to inflation and conflict, but real estate continues to offer long-term thematic tailwinds:
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2022
Geopolitical risks, inflation and hawkish central banks translate into a cautious stance on risk assets such as credit, in which, a deceleration in growth (and its impact on earnings) could create concerns over cash flows and liquidity, especially for the lower rated companies. Hence, we prefer US IG and are defensive on HY.
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White papersWhat role can renewables play in strengthening Europe’s energy security?
Winter threatens to bring the first severe European energy crisis in decades. As leaders grapple with potential solutions, renewable energy capacity is in the spotlight.
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White papersMore Swiss policy tightening, but how?
Concluding seven years of negative interest rates, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) tightened monetary policy at its September meeting, warned that further rate increase could be necessary and joined other global central banks in foreseeing significant risks to the global economy. Lifting base rates by 75bps to 0.50%, the bank also raised its inflation forecasts and unveiled measures to manage excess liquidity.
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White papersPolicy Excesses and Market Discipline
We are seeing bond investors standing up for themselves against policymakers, and while equity investors are experiencing pain from this struggle, the end result may be a more sustainable, fundamentals-based market.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2022
Geopolitical risks have returned to investors’ radar screens with President Putin’s escalation of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, inflation remains in the spotlight: the latest US reading was concerning, causing yields to rise while equity markets tumbled.
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White papersGrowth and evolution of the real estate sector
The current macroeconomic environment is having repercussions for all asset classes. The real estate sector continues to remain strong, offering a good protection hedge to inflation thanks to its robust nature and low correlation to other asset classes.
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White papersCentral banks split by fiscal packages vs inflation
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we analyse the market response to the UK’s latest fiscal stimulus and suggest this situation could be replicated across Europe as winter takes hold.
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White papersClean energy investments: a new addition to the investors’ inflation toolkit?
While investors have typically looked to commodities as an inflation hedge, a lack of income, coupled with volatile prices, has resulted in low risk-adjusted returns. Can direct energy investments help investors guard against rising prices?
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White papersCIO views: what about an outlier scenario?
In the current context of interest rates being higher for longer, what would happen if an extreme situation played out to amplify existing trends? For instance, interest rates rose to 6% or inflation increased to 20% in a developed market?
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White papersPortfolio construction themes in these times of inflation
Investors seeking to put this bear market behind them aren’t out of the woods yet. Hopes that inflation might peak quickly, that the U.S. Federal Reserve would pivot, and that the global economy could emerge unscathed — all have diminished.
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White papersPreparing portfolios for the unexpected
Asset valuations are undergoing a considerable reshuffle in 2022, from bonds to equities to commodities. This vast reshuffling of the cards reflects a rapid rise in interest rates and especially in long-term real rates. The rise in real rates is unprecedented since the establishment of inflation-linked bond markets in the late 1990s, and triggering deep concern as US 10-year real yields approach 1.5%.
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White papersCan we trust inflation forecasts?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we argue that inflation forecasts have become irrelevant in a volatile inflation environment and suggest more attention should be given to the components behind the overall figure.
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White papersReal Estate Outlook – Europe, Edition September 2022
The economic outlook for the UK and eurozone deteriorated further over the course of 2Q22. An optimistic scenario is for a soft-landing, where economic growth slows significantly in 2023 but narrowly stays in positive territory on an annual basis.
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White papersOverflow…the growth of self-storage
It’s a familiar problem: overflowing closets, packed garages and bedrooms transforming into home offices. Where do we put all that extra stuff? No wonder self-storage has been one of the best performing real estate sectors over the past several decades.
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White papersHardball: Does real estate still have what it takes?
For years, investors have held steady on their reasons to allocate to private real estate: return potential, income, volatility management, inflation hedging and diversification. But the current environment is testing every asset class. Can real estate continue to deliver?
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White papersHave investors deployed enough hedges?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we take stock of the Federal Reserve’s determination to bring inflation under control at the cost of economic growth and outline how this is impacting our portfolio positioning.
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White papersTop 5 takeaways for infrastructure
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is the most important US clean energy legislation in recent history. The bill gives investors unprecedented policy visibility that was previously lacking. Energy tax credits have been expanded to investments such as standalone energy storage, clean transportation, hydrogen etc., opening up new investment opportunities.
