All Inflation articles – Page 39
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White papersInflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2022
Central bank monetary tightening has arrived, with a resulting shift upward in market interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year. In this environment we are seeing opportunities across credit sectors. Continued macro volatility will keep spreads “two-way,” while positive underlying fundamentals across a range of sectors should provide support.
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White papersReal Estate: Built to Withstand Both Inflation and a Slowdown
Real estate could serve as a foundation for portfolios in an environment of high inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth, and investing at the real estate company level can offer valuable advantages during a time of market uncertainty.
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White papersWhiplash!
Hard economic data has remained strong, but recession risks are on the rise. Combined with limited forward guidance from Central Banks, this has left markets to have to decipher what each data print will mean for monetary policy and the path of rates.
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White papersUnwavering Resolve
Central banks are increasingly worried they might be losing an inflation battle that could now be generational, so expect them to get much more aggressive to catch up.
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VideoBuilding resilient portfolios amid inflation
After a thirty-year hiatus, inflation has become one of the main risks for investors to manage leading to other concerns that come along with uncertain markets.
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White papersUK Leadership Change: Economic and market implications
After the resignation of Boris Johnson as prime minister, what is your outlook regarding British political development?
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White papersRenminbi’s rise will not challenge dollar dominance
A sharp economic slowdown seems to be looming in both Europe and the US, which would make bond markets attractive again, especially in the US. Conversely, the Chinese economy is expected to reaccelerate. International monetary system set to become multipolar as geopolitical factors are likely to prevail.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - July/August 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July/August 2022
United States: signs of decelerating growth are increasing as high inflation bites into consumers’ disposable income and companies’ margins. While we do not see activity contracting in Q2, risks to our projections remain on the downside. We do expect the US economy to grow below potential between now and yearend and to remain on a similar sub-par growth trajectory into 2023, as tighter monetary policy impacts the most interestrate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
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White papersThe ECB’s ability to raise rates will depend on the strength of the antifragmentation tool
The ECB is determined to tighten its monetary policy in the face of record high inflation levels. However, it is addressing that risk by cooling inflation down or pushing the economy into recession or triggering a spike in peripheral debt borrowing costs, as in 2012.
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White papersEnergy Fuels European Inflation & Rate Fears
U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.
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White papersInto the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
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White papersThe ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
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White papersThe Decisive Eye: A strategic bulletin on issues and opportunities in European real assets
The world economy is experiencing a level of inflation not seen since the oil price shock of the early 1980s with policymakers dusting off old playbooks to ensure price increases do not become deeply entrenched.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - July 2022
Dramatic price action has taken place over the past weeks in equities and bonds, following hot inflation prints, central bank (CB) actions and rising concerns over economic growth. These events are a reminder of the regime shift, in which we are witnessing the resurgence of stagflationary risks and central banks trying to assert their credibility.
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White papersFinding a third way between throttling energy demand and dirty fossil fuel
The war in Ukraine is significantly impacting energy security, particularly in Europe. Beyond oil & gas markets, the conflict has a variety of negative macroeconomic effects. Notably, the fighting in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia are disrupting commodity supplies, exacerbating ‘cost push’ inflation set in motion by the pandemic and its aftermath.
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White papersEuropean Logistics Reaching a Turning Point
The ECB has signaled a 25-50 bps rate hike in July and September as on the back of the on-going Ukraine conflict, inflation has continued to move up. Depending on the country, European government bonds have spiked by 100-200 bps over the last three months. These higher bond yields will impact on logistics markets as measured by our new Jun-22 base case and downside scenarios.
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White papers2022 Midyear Outlook - Long-term perspective on markets and economies
We are living through a pivotal time in history, marked by geopolitical realignment, high inflation, volatile financial markets and the end of a 40-year period of declining interest rates. The title of this new era could be Brave New World or Back to the Future. But the title I would select is Revenge of the Boomers, because a lot of these events are rhyming with the past, particularly the early 1960s.
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White papersWith inflation on the rise, what is the long-term economic impact?
Inflation’s resurgence during the past year has awakened fears that the global economy has returned to the 1970s – a period when growth stagnated and central banks lost control of price stability. That’s too pessimistic a view.
