All Inflation articles – Page 40
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White papersSuspension of US-China climate talks puts global efforts at risk
Just as the US passed the USD 430 billion Inflation Reduction Act to tackle climate change among other major issues, China has suspended Sino-US collaboration on global warming. Details are not yet available, but the impact on global de-carbonisation could be substantial, especially if last November’s Joint Glasgow Declaration by the world’s largest CO2 emitters is at stake.
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White papersInfrastructure – rising rates and the “natural hedge”
Inflation has accelerated globally as a result of consumer demand, fuelled by fiscal policy, pushing into supply constraints due to COVID-19 and geopolitical upheaval. US inflation is running at 40-year highs and other advanced economies are at or near similar extremes.
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White papersGlobal Equity ESG Fund, H1 Report 2022
For long-term investors, the story is essentially unchanged, in fact, falling markets offer more attractive valuations on high-quality companies with a competitive edge.
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White papersMarkets Testing Central Bank Resolve
Despite hawkish comments by Fed officials this week, markets continue to price in a more dovish path for rates. The BoE hiked 50bps and downgraded its economic outlook, calling for a U.K. recession in Q4. Eyes will be on U.S. CPI next week to gauge whether inflation is peaking.
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White papersEmerging market debt: Looking for opportunities in challenging circumstances
Persistently high global inflation has forced the world’s leading central banks to start tightening monetary policy. However, the prices of many of the most vulnerable emerging market bond issuers are now quoted close to – and in some cases lower – than their expected recovery value.
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White papers*Global tensions: Investment strategies for uncertain markets*
Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are threatening market stability, yet many investors remain unprepared for the challenging times ahead. Private markets and private debt offer an attractive alternative.
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White papers*Can private markets help investors ride the inflation wave?*
Demographics, repetitive bouts of fiscal stimulus, and deglobalisation are among the factors pointing to prolonged higher inflation. Can private markets help investors sustain returns?
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White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q3 2022
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term.
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White papersRecession Semantics
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively.
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White papersGeopolitics vs. the race to net zero
The Ukraine crisis is a horrendous tragedy and the war will have a considerable impact on the European and global economy. It has brought sharply into focus the fragility of supply chains and energy security - which has manifested in runaway inflation.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives - July 2022
The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after the market sell-off this year, we are exercising caution given greater uncertainty and elevated recession risk.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Third Quarter 2022
The global economic outlook deteriorated sharply in the second quarter and markets are increasingly concerned that higher rates will lead to a recession. This outcome isn’t a certainty, but the probability of slower or negative growth has increased materially as inflation has stayed high.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2022
The first sequence of the double bear markets (in equities and long-term bonds) adjusting to the end of easy money and rising inflation is almost complete. Now, the narrative has changed, with a shift in focus to deceleration of growth vs fears of inflation.
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White papersJuly 26-27 FOMC Review: Maintaining a Hawkish Course
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%, the second consecutive 75bp rate hike. The Fed rate decision was widely expected. With today’s rate hike, the fed funds rate is within the 2 to 3% range of estimates of the long-term “neutral” rate. However, as Chair Powell reminded us during his press conference, policy needs to go beyond neutral into restrictive territory this year in order to reduce inflation.
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PodcastThe Investment Podcast: How much inflation protection can real estate offer?
Like every asset class, the real estate sector is grappling with spiralling inflation and rising interest rates. In times like these, real estate has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation, but does it still hold true in the context of what has driven today’s inflationary picture?
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White papersCompass - Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast
Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers’ approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility. The European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps is a case in point.
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White papers*Mid-year outlook takeaways – Chronicle of a recession foretold*
Investor surveys, and now the US yield curve, indicate a high likelihood of a recession in the US. The question seems not whether there will be a recession, but when. Economist forecasts and earnings growth estimates, however, suggest a recession is not so certain. With growth already slowing more quickly than expected, markets are assuming central banks will not hike policy rates as much as was thought. But inflation may not fall enough to make that possible.
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White papersTowards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor view
In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies. This use of fiscal space should also help manage investors’ expectations, in order to minimise the risk of ‘sunspot equilibria’, where investors’ beliefs cause prices to diverge from fundamentals.
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White papersInflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2022
Central bank monetary tightening has arrived, with a resulting shift upward in market interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year. In this environment we are seeing opportunities across credit sectors. Continued macro volatility will keep spreads “two-way,” while positive underlying fundamentals across a range of sectors should provide support.
