All Inflation articles – Page 40
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White papers
Russia/Ukraine Conflict: Market Outlook
As the tragic crisis in Ukraine continues to unfold, Martin Currie offers our viewpoint on the potential market impacts, both near and longer-term.
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White papers
Quick Thoughts: Should We Fear Stagflation?
It is little surprise that the word “stagflation” is trending as the world grapples with the possibility of both slower economic growth and higher inflation.
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White papers
Russia-Ukraine: an uncertain outcome calls for higher focus on liquidity
At the core of the crisis, Russian assets have become almost un-investible, with dramatic price action as the market attempts to grapple with uncertainty. European equities have suffered, anticipating the negative consequences of the war on corporate earnings, while also commodities trended higher with double digit rise across many commodities. A flight to safety move has benefited government bonds, with the US treasury yield and the Bund yield trending lower.
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White papers
Uninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.
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White papers
The Inflationary Shock of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already caused a tragic human toll. It also brings yet another disruptive shock to a global economy already coping with persistent supply chain disruptions and fast-rising inflation. The clearest and most immediate economic impact of the conflict will be stronger and more durable inflationary pressures, driven by a negative supply shock to energy and some agricultural commodities—as detailed in the remainder of this note.
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Blog
Ukraine conflict: UK real estate impacts
In our latest blog on the conflict in Ukraine, we examine the immediate effect on the UK institutional real estate market and make some tentative observations on potential long-term implications for real assets.
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White papers
EU policymakers may look to mitigate economic shock
Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which has become Europe’s largest ground war in generations, has impacted millions of people and triggered a large-scale humanitarian crisis as vulnerable Ukrainians take shelter or flee their homes. The intensification and spread of the conflict is deeply troubling and is having a devastating impact on those people caught in the crisis.
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White papers
Spectrum, Q1 2022: The Great Rotation 2.0
Slower growth rates, tighter labour markets, higher inflation and normalising monetary policies provides the classic backdrop to a great rotation from growth to value stocks, as well as a change in fixed income strategy.
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White papers
How might the Ukraine crisis affect commercial real estate markets?
Our experts expect the direct implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to be modest. We explain why.
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White papers
Quick Thoughts: Ukraine, Russia, and the Path Forward
Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist for the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently shared his thoughts around the situation in Ukraine and the implications for the global economy and capital markets.
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White papers
Positioning Liquid Credit Portfolios For Rising Rates & Inflation
Martin Horne, Head of Global Public Fixed Income, discusses how to mitigate the risk of rising rates and inflation, touching on the potential benefits of floating rate assets and short-duration strategies.
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White papers
Shifts & Narratives #14 - Russia conflict marks a further step in the road back to the ‘70s
In recent history, geopolitical crises have tended to be short-lived and after an initial sell-off they provide buying opportunities for investors. It’s tempting to see a similar pattern in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would explain why markets have been on a roller-coaster, with a fast recovery expected for any perceived positive development, after the initial negative shock when Russia launched its unexpected large scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
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White papers
Market Scenarios and Risks - March 2022
We amend the narrative of our scenario to take into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine. We increase the probability of our downside scenario to 30% (from 15%) to reflect the rising risk of stagflation.
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White papers
Special Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. NATO countries and European leaders have so far ruled out direct military confrontation because of the risk of escalation between nuclear powers.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2022
The geopolitical escalation at month’s end marks a further rise in volatility, even as the Fed and the ECB displayed hawkish overtures earlier. We suggest a more cautious stance in credit amid rising liquidity risks and a less appealing risk/return profile for credit compared with equity.
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White papers
Macroeconomic Picture - March 2022
The Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing the regime shift one step further with more severe economic implications for some regions, in this case Europe because of its energy dependence and geographic proximity.
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White papers
An Equity Outlook: Are Stocks the Biggest Real Asset Out There?
It may be easy to take a bearish stance on equities today, but there’s a case for stocks to generate positive real returns on a strategic basis going forward. High household equity allocations may actually be warranted, elevated valuations don’t necessarily spell doom, populist pressures on earnings growth are surmountable and falling correlations within the equity market create more “potential energy” for active management to add alpha.
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White papers
Russia’s Invasion: Eurozone Recovery Delayed but not Derailed
The economic impact of Russia’s invasion constitutes a clear negative supply shock for the euro area that creates a dilemma for policymakers. On the one hand, higher energy prices will hit economic activity, reduce confidence and damage trade and financial links. On the other hand, the conflict will raise inflation for firms and households.
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Research Report
Primonial Reim Germany Convictions
The Research & Strategy Department’s role is to formalize Primonial REIM’s real estate investment strategies, based on continuous monitoring of the European markets. By nature, real estate is at the crossroads of financial (interest rates), economic (tenants), demographic and social factors. This is why a broad analysis is needed, which is also long term and therefore matches the horizon of most real estate investors.
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