All Inflation articles – Page 45
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White papersEconomic Scenarios in the Midst of War
Numbing economic sanctions on Russia, the delivery of arms to the government of Ukraine to stiffen resistance, and the remilitarization of Europe mean there is no turning back. The world has now changed and it is a difficult task to sketch with any certainty the economic impact.
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White papersFixed Income Amid Inflation
What does the current inflationary environment mean for multi-sector fixed income portfolios?
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White papersValue Can Potentially Outperform Even if Growth Slows
We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years—and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view.
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White papersRussia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
The second week of conflict in the Ukraine was marked by additional market volatility. Equities are down across the board. The demand for safe-haven assets temporarily pushed the 10-year Treasury down to 1.7% before it retraced to 1.9% amid rising inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, gold has remained well supported, briefly moving above $2000/ounce.
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White papersSenior Floating Rate Loans: A Low-Cost Hedge Against Inflation
Headline CPI inflation in the U.S. came in at 7.5% year-over-year in January 2022, its highest level since the mid-1980s. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, market participants held the view that the Federal Reserve was well behind the curve on rate hikes as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reached a near-term peak of 2.05% on February 15.
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White papersCentral Banks on Deck to Fight Inflation
The ECB was owlish—carefully hawkish. It further reduced asset purchases for Q2 below the €40 billion previously announced and left completely open the pace of asset purchases for Q3. This leaves room for great flexibility: the ability to hike or not in Q4.
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White papersMonths When Decades Happen
Europe enters this dangerous period on solid footing. Unemployment is at record lows. Wage growth remains subdued. Russia’s war in Ukraine adds a strong inflation headwind to the ongoing expansion.
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White papersESG and inflation: An inconvenient truth?
When it comes to ESG investing, we need to talk about the inflationary elephant in the room says Martin Todd, Portfolio Manager for Global Equity ESG.
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PodcastCommodities: An Inflation Hedge for All Seasons?
As we see the effects of inflation taking place globally, investors may be wondering what their next move is in asset allocation. However, the inflationary environment we’re seeing today is unlike what we have seen in forty years. So to no surprise, commodities investments have become top of mind to many investors as it’s considered a traditional inflation hedge. But does that thinking apply to all inflationary environments? And what are the ESG implications behind commodities investing today?
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White papersRussia-Ukraine: an uncertain outcome calls for higher focus on liquidity
At the core of the crisis, Russian assets have become almost un-investible, with dramatic price action as the market attempts to grapple with uncertainty. European equities have suffered, anticipating the negative consequences of the war on corporate earnings, while also commodities trended higher with double digit rise across many commodities. A flight to safety move has benefited government bonds, with the US treasury yield and the Bund yield trending lower.
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White papersUninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.
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White papersEU policymakers may look to mitigate economic shock
Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which has become Europe’s largest ground war in generations, has impacted millions of people and triggered a large-scale humanitarian crisis as vulnerable Ukrainians take shelter or flee their homes. The intensification and spread of the conflict is deeply troubling and is having a devastating impact on those people caught in the crisis.
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White papersSpectrum, Q1 2022: The Great Rotation 2.0
Slower growth rates, tighter labour markets, higher inflation and normalising monetary policies provides the classic backdrop to a great rotation from growth to value stocks, as well as a change in fixed income strategy.
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White papersHow might the Ukraine crisis affect commercial real estate markets?
Our experts expect the direct implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to be modest. We explain why.
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White papersPositioning Liquid Credit Portfolios For Rising Rates & Inflation
Martin Horne, Head of Global Public Fixed Income, discusses how to mitigate the risk of rising rates and inflation, touching on the potential benefits of floating rate assets and short-duration strategies.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #14 - Russia conflict marks a further step in the road back to the ‘70s
In recent history, geopolitical crises have tended to be short-lived and after an initial sell-off they provide buying opportunities for investors. It’s tempting to see a similar pattern in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would explain why markets have been on a roller-coaster, with a fast recovery expected for any perceived positive development, after the initial negative shock when Russia launched its unexpected large scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - March 2022
We amend the narrative of our scenario to take into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine. We increase the probability of our downside scenario to 30% (from 15%) to reflect the rising risk of stagflation.
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White papersSpecial Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. NATO countries and European leaders have so far ruled out direct military confrontation because of the risk of escalation between nuclear powers.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2022
The geopolitical escalation at month’s end marks a further rise in volatility, even as the Fed and the ECB displayed hawkish overtures earlier. We suggest a more cautious stance in credit amid rising liquidity risks and a less appealing risk/return profile for credit compared with equity.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - March 2022
The Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing the regime shift one step further with more severe economic implications for some regions, in this case Europe because of its energy dependence and geographic proximity.
