All Inflation articles – Page 50
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White papersMacroeconomic Outlook 2022: Compression, decompression, absorption
2020 was a year of massive compression of economic activity. 2021 was a year of fast decompression, with demand catching up quickly as we were reopening, exerting significant pressure on supply, triggering a rise in consumer prices unseen in decades.
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White papersInvestment Strategy outlook 2022: Coping with modest rate increases
As we head towards the second anniversary of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the disease remains one of the key worries for investors. It continues to have the ability to disrupt demand and supply and for this to be reflected in bouts of “risk-off” behaviour in financial markets.
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White papersEM inflation elevated but still relatively contained; local markets could offer relative value
The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer term EM inflation expectations.
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White papersRisk and opportunity in Asia credit: Chinese property, regulatory shifts, inflation
We believe at the point of Evergrande default, the contagion are, less financial and more real economy in nature. This is because the overall exposure of the financial system to Evergrande from a top-down perspective is much more manageable albeit there are risks around selected financial institutions with higher exposures to Evergrande.
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VideoSolving for 2022
The heads of our investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2022.
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PodcastThe Investment Podcast: Is the inflation genie out of the bottle?
With higher inflation now a global phenomenon, the extent of its pick-up varies from country to country. David Parsons and Miles Tym from M&G Investments, explore the localised responses, whether Gen X will be Gen debt and above all – whether inflation is here to stay.
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White papersGlobal real estate outlook - Finding value in a new era
Global economies are showing signs of recovery as people adapt to living alongside COVID-19, and attention is turning to what our post-pandemic world looks like. M&G’s latest Global Real Estate Outlook highlights the challenges and opportunities that real estate investors may need to consider.
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White papersIs the U.K. the Newest Leading Indicator?
An upside surprise in U.K. inflation and improving employment trends reinforced markets pricing a 10–15 bps rate hike by the BoE in December, while energy prices eased following the announcements from China, which could provide downside pressure to market inflation expectations.
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White papers2022 Investment Outlook - Investing in the great transformation
As the global economy recovers from its pandemic scars and inflation makes its first comeback in decades, the world is preparing to face its greatest ever challenges: the energy transition to fight the inexorable climate crisis and the development of an inclusive growth model.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2022
Inflation remains elevated in emerging markets (EM) with ongoing but manageable risks. A significant proportion of the shock to EM inflation can be attributed to volatile food and energy prices. Normalisation of supply chains and base effects should help.
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White papersFed tapering begins: mission accomplished
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to have struck a neutral balance in its November 3 meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. The Fed was careful to differentiate the formal start to monthly tapering of the asset purchase programme with future adjustments to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed maintained the transitory inflation language, but specifically pointed to inflation “factors that are expected to be transitory” rather than inflation as a whole.
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White papersAll-time highs on equity markets in spite of (almost) everything
After a difficult end to September for global equities, October started well before a brief pause and then a sharp rebound. Inflation concerns linked to skyrocketing energy prices weighed on equity markets before strong company earnings reports brought relief. WTI crude oil rose by 11.4% to end October at USD 83.60, marking a high since October 2014.
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White papersCommercial Real Estate and Inflation-Resistant Income
Commercial real estate (i.e. industrial, office, apartment, retail and hotel properties) offers investors an inflation- resistant source of income as well as the potential for attractive long-term returns.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives - October 2021
The global economy maintained its positive overall trajectory, though economic indicators grew more mixed. Returns across fixed income were mostly flat to negative for the quarter as an array of developments unsettled the stock market.
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White papersShoppers Jump-Start an Early Q4 Pickup
Stickier price pressures continue to stoke fears of U.S. inflation. Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes, which has led to increases in the short-end of the U.S. Treasury curve. The downward movement in the long-end suggests markets may be worried about a policy mistake.
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White papersThe Risks Ahead That No One Fully Understands
The economy may return to more “normal” patterns next year, but it will also bring hazards we have never seen before.
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White papersThe Brave New World
Supply chain disruptions persist, making the global reopening much less smooth. Contagious variants still weigh on activity, and vaccination levels in major emerging markets have progressed marginally. An energy price shock has added to the unpleasant mix.
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White papersInflation and supply chain disruption: Impact on the sectors
Inflation and supply chain disruptions, along with the moderating pace of the post-pandemic earnings recovery, have made us more cautious on corporate fundamentals as we enter Q3 reporting season. While we do not expect a material deterioration in credit profile on the back of these factors, the more challenging operating environment does require caution from credit investors.
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VideoUS Economic Outlook: Inflation, Growth and the Fed
Most measures of inflation are at multiyear highs. Headline inflation has gone up 5.4% over the last 12 months, and that’s a rate of increase that we haven’t seen in more than a decade.
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White papersWhen “Transitory” Becomes a “Swear Word”
The debate rages on around how best to describe current inflationary pressures, but some synonym for “not lasting” still fits best.
