All Inflation articles – Page 55
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Contraction > recovery > late cycle: the cycle round trip is confirmed Advanced Investment Phazer: top-down assessment
The global recovery continues at different speeds and compositions at the regional level. Policies are pivotal in shaping the recovery trajectories, influencing market participants’ narratives and rebuilding confidence.
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Property Appreciation, Inflation and What to Expect
In a speech at the Jackson Hole summit on August 27th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced new and significant changes to U.S. monetary policy, specifically with respect to the Fed’s dual mandates of full employment and price stability.
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On the Road to Japanification
Sentiment around monetary policy, fiscal policy and a host of other factors can swing markets, but can anything return us to sustained growth and inflation?
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Fed’s policy shift may spell long-term trouble for bonds
Bond markets have taken the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy framework in their stride, partly because interest rates are now expected to stay lower for even longer. But they look vulnerable if the Fed can revive inflation.
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The day after #11 - Post-crisis narratives that will drive financial markets
The Covid-19 crisis has thrown up a sequence of images from the past (pandemics, wars, the Great Financial Crisis) that have pushed central banks (CB) and governments to act in unprecedented ways (in terms of magnitude and speed of action). This has defined the current ‘day after’ narrative.
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The day after the crisis: implications for long-term investors
In a recent piece of paper1 long-term investors found a broad analysis of the most relevant post-crisis elements they need to consider in order to make a more informed decision about their investments: central banks support, inflation situation, deglobalisation trend, low-carbon transition and inequality assessment were the main features to consider.
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Real estate’s role as an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world
The Federal Reserve’s recent Jackson Hole Symposium has renewed attention on inflation in light of the unprecedented global fiscal and monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic If inflation exceeds capital market expectations, risk assets could underperform. As such, investors should consider assets which may offer some protection against a potential increase in inflation
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Pushing on an Open Door – Covid 19 is Intensifying Long Term Macro Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has had historic—and nearly immediate—repercussions for society, the global economy and policy. The aftereffects will last for many years, reinforcing long-term trends including deglobalization, populism and mounting debt. How will governments tackle the debt overhang—and how do these trends impact our macro views?
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Pushing on an Open Door: COVID-19 is Intensifying Long-term Macro Trends…Especially Debt Overhangs
The COVID-19 pandemic has had historic—and nearly immediate—repercussions for society, the global economy and policy. The aftereffects will last for many years, reinforcing long-term trends including deglobalization, populism and mounting debt.
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Fixed Income: They Blinded Us from Science
Dr. Sonal Desai unveils the first insights from the new Franklin Templeton-Gallup research project on behavioral response to COVID-19.
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How Long Can This Go On?
U.S. government debts may set new records, but investors should focus more on borrowing costs and growth rates.
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Inflation hawks, crying wolf
Part 3 of our series exploring the potential source of the next global crisis
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ECB QE Monitor – June 2020
ECB strengthened its intention to make its action long-term: The ECB revised its medium-term inflation target substantially on the downside. Core inflation is forecast to reach only 0.9% in 2022 (0.8% in 2020, 0.7% in 2021). The ECB justified the adjustment of the size of the PEPP by ...
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The inflation genie – Understanding the drivers for the medium term
The COVID-19 pandemic has revived a familiar conversation about the inflation genie escaping the bottle. The speculation is similar to the one that surfaced in the immediate aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and at various points since then: That we are likely to experience a burst of inflation in the coming years.
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Coronavirus & Inflation in Advanced Economies: Slower for Longer
If consumers manage to recover quickly and healthily, thanks in part to so much public money being put in their hands, supply may fall short and inflation could come back.
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Quarterly Economic Outlook: we’ve never had it so loose
The US and UK are already running highly negative interest rates, when QE is considered, according to a report by the International business of Federated Hermes. It says that true, QE-adjusted policy rates are now as low as -10% in the US, and -6% in the UK or around -12% and -8% in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
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The day after #6 - Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary context, inflation is often overlooked. This is a dangerous mistake, in our view. For investors, now more than ever, it is crucial to keep a very close eye on this metric—in particular, since we may be at the beginning of a complete regime shift.
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Sweden’s Experiment with Negative Rates
At the end of 2019, Sweden’s Riksbank initiated a policy change at a time when the much larger European Central Bank (ECB) announced its determination to persist with its negative interest rate policy.
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What We Already Know About The Recovery
And why bonds and stocks may not be pricing in such different outcomes.
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Global Supply & Demand Curves Shift to the Left
U.S. inflation came in soft for April amid low oil prices and weak global demand. The employment report saw leisure and hospitality with the highest job losses, and Saudi Arabia announced plans to cut oil production again, easing concerns over storage capacity limits worldwide.