All Inflation articles – Page 55
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White papersInflation: Preparing your portfolio for the surge
After falling to almost zero during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of U.S. inflation is on the rise. To navigate the current market environment, today’s investor must understand how quickly the United States economic recovery will generate inflation, how long that inflation will be sustained, and what investment implications follow.
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White papers2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential
We confirm the financial “recovery regime” as a central scenario (with a 70% probability) for the next 12 to 18 months, with growth and macro determinants remaining paramount.
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White papersThe end of the Great Moderation and the return of volatility
Since the mid-1980s, the macroeconomic volatility has declined to a postwar low.
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White papersA Few Sparks & Lots of Smoke—But Still No Sign of a Fire
As investors search for signs of uncontrolled inflation, it’s hard to see anything more than you’d expect in a strong cyclical recovery.
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White papersStill Searching for (Lasting) Inflation
Markit flash PMIs suggest European economies are improving. In the U.S., stimulus and reopenings drove the composite PMI to a record high, and consumer confidence is rising sharply. Elsewhere, the BOJ revised growth projections higher amid strong external demand.
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White papersFed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom
Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #2 - Inflation: something deep awakens
One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, we wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint. Cyclically, the crisis was already generating a combination of demand and supply shocks that could only increase short-term inflation volatility and sectoral fragmentation.
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White papersShoppers Are Back—Spending is the New Saving
Europe remains on track for a delayed recovery as consumers weathered winter lockdowns fairly well. In the U.S., retail sales and inflation data popped up in March. Elsewhere, credit growth in China slowed as policymakers remain confident in the economic recovery.
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White papersThe problem with credit indices
The UK institutional client base is reliant on fixed income securities to meet its long-term requirement for stable, long-term, income- generating assets.
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White papersBehind China’s disinflation
Inflation in China has bumped along in a narrow range for the last decade. What has happened and what is the outlook?
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White papersWith So Much Liquidity, It’s Time to Double-Check the Plumbing
Inflation fears look exaggerated so far, but risks buried deep in balance sheets can never get too much attention.
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White papersReal Yields, Inflation Breakevens and Risk Assets: The Changing Environment
The fixed income world is beginning to undergo a multiyear transition as aggressive monetary accommodation and government spending across key economies drive higher near-term economic growth rates.
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Second Quarter 2021
Vaccination progress and fiscal stimulus have advantaged the US economy, which we expect to grow about 6.5% in 2021. China, too, is rebounding, with output already topping pre-crisis levels. We’re still cautious, however, about Europe, where rising COVID-19 cases may further delay reopenings.
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White papersAmid a US economic boom, how high can rates go?
The possibility of an economic boom this year has stoked worries about higher inflation and prompted a sharp selloff in US Treasuries.
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White papersThree Strategies for Navigating Turbulent Bond Markets
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears. Extremely low yields make it tough to find sufficient income and potential return. Economic growth is rebounding from its 2020 collapse, but the world’s grip on recovery is uncertain.
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White papersHow hot is the inflation pot? Strategies to protect portfolios from inflation risk
As the global economy emerges from its worst slump since the 1930s, we envisage plenty of inflation fertilisers at stake, especially in the United States. Inflationary trends could emerge due to a combination of factors, including the cyclical recovery as countries try to get the pandemic under control and gradually lift mitigation measures.
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White papersFixed-income markets: from cyclical to structural challenges
Since the start of the year, bond yields have surged in the economies of the G10 as markets anticipate a sharp acceleration in inflation and economic activity. This rebound is likely to be particularly strong in the US given its enormous fiscal stimulus plan. In the medium term, opinion is divided concerning the post-Covid crisis macroeconomic trajectory and a possible change in the inflation regime in the US.
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White papersA U.S. Treasury Bear is Born
Bear markets typically begin cloaked in a spirit of denial. Confutation can be virtuous because decline owns up to problems and making a change to solve them is often too painful. It’s human nature to seek pleasure to avoid pain. So, folks resist and hang on to their dogmas unyielding beliefs like “inflation hasn’t happened and can’t happen because demographics and technology won’t allow it to happen just look at Europe and Japan.” Certainly, an entire generation has grown to acquaint a bond bear but just for a brief “hello” and a more celebrated long “good-bye”.
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White papersHow to Invest in the “Best of All Possible Worlds”
Markets should worry less about inflation and more about government investment that produces higher rates of sustainable growth.
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White papersWatch For More Inflation Jitters
Markit flash PMIs show that, in the U.S., easing of restrictions, vaccine rollout, and fiscal stimulus are aiding the rebound in manufacturing and services sectors.
