All Inflation articles – Page 55
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White papersCore Matter: A Deeper Look into Financial Vulnerabilities
Almost ten years of record low interest rates have raised leverage in the non-financial sector as well as investors’ tolerance for riskier and less liquid instruments. As a result, the average quality of corporate debt has worsened. Credit risk has shifted away from banks to asset managers. Mutual funds’ ...
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White papersModern Monetary Theory: Could it go mainstream?
An obscure and heterodox branch of economic theory is quickly gaining support from prominent politicians in the US and beyond, which could have big implications for policymaking, argues David Nowakowski.
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Asset Manager NewsAmplified: There’s more than one side to any investment story
We are now in the tail end of the second quarter of an already eventful year, with investors facing a range of stark choices.
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White papersHow will the world respond to the next economic crisis?
The longest US economic expansion on record spanned a decade from March 1991 to March 2001. With the country’s current period of sustained growth poised to surpass this 10-year record in July, we examine the possible response to the next crisis.
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White papers
Will ECB Change Course to End Negative Rates?
Negative rates aimed at boosting European bank lending instead had the opposite effect. Will the ECB end this policy and raise rates in 2019?
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White papersIs Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks
Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its monetary policy, helped in this, it must be said, by a fiscal and tax policy that has never been as pro-cyclical as in recent years (the Trump years).
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White papers
Liquidity Insights: Euro FX Responds to Brexit, U.S. Inflation
There are many factors that can influence FX exchange rates, including event risk and fundamental economic data. To manage such risk, traders have often turned to futures and options. Recent events around the world have caused dramatic moves in exchange rates, particularly for currencies impacted by the chaos of Brexit.
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White papersEuropean elections in an era of economic and political disruption
The stakes are high for elections to the European Parliament in May: they will test populist strength across the bloc at a time when economic momentum is weak. In this edition of Ahead of the Curve, we examine how this dynamic could steer the agenda in the weeks before the vote.
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White papers
Fed's Five Critical Issues
The Fed is facing five issues that could play a key role in its forward guidance on monetary policy, chief among them being the trade war and the economy.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side
Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in the current context.
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White papersBig Challenges for Equities, Bonds and FX Markets
A series of challenges, from the debt ceiling to Fed quantitative tightening to Brexit, will be confronting a variety of markets.
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White papersThe inflation story: 2019 and beyond
In this issue of Ahead of the Curve, we assess the prospects for inflation in the US and the eurozone.
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White papersMorocco: moderate economic risks
Growth is expected to slow down compared to 2017 but should stabilise at around 3% this year and in 2019.
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White papersFed’s Fork in the Road: Even Higher Rates or Pause
Will the Fed raise rates seven more times through 2020? Our base scenario is for just two more due to record-high dept and the risk of a recession.
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White papersTrade War Costs to Consumers, Companies and Nations
The trade war between the U.S. and China is showing no sign of abating. What are the costs of the tariffs to consumers, companies and the two nations?
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White papersEuropean long lease real estate: a defensive alternative
In a world in which income can be challenging to find, secure and growing cashflows are sought after by pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors.
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White papersHow to play the oil price swings
Oil price: We confirm our target price for the next 12 months in the range of $60-70 per barrel.
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White papersBanking problems impede India’s reforms
There has generally been a positive response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s structural reforms, but there has been an investment slowdown in the medium-term, and recent scandals, huge bad loans and ATM cash shortages imply a banking system that is in crisis – to the tune of $210 billion.
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White papersWhat to know about investing in China
There used to be a lot of concern around China’s old industrial economy, but supply-side reforms have curtailed excess capacity.
