All Inflation articles – Page 57
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White papersTurkey: Inflation And Monetary Policy
January’s inflation report and last inflation figures: The Governor of the CBRT debriefed last week on the first inflation report of the year January inflation figure released at 12.15% yoy, higher than in December (11.84%). The rise in housing, electricity and energy were the main drivers pf this increase. ...
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White papersInvestment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed
While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle.
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White papersFocal Point US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed
We expect the US economy to cool this year. Growth will likely ease from 2.2% to 1.6% because of the full effect of tariffs becoming effective during the first half of the year. The lagged impact of the 2019 rate cuts and that of the additional reduction we expect for Q2 will engineer a soft landing of the economy, despite still substantial headwinds. The Fed will take big steps to adapt its monetary policy strategy to a low-inflation, low-interest rates world. The broad view of this strategy should be clearer by summer, but the dovish bias it will most likely produce will be welcomed by markets.
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White papersBlog: China themes for 2020 – growth and policy (2/2)
What to expect economically from superpower China in 2020? In the final part of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for inflation, growth and central bank policy.
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White papersOur convictions for emerging markets in 2020
GDP growth should be stronger across many emerging markets in 2020 as Anjeza Kadilli explains.
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White papersCore Matters: Where has inflation gone?
Over the past decades global inflation has been trending down. It averaged 8% yoy in the 1980s but stands at just 2.7% yoy in the current decade. Inflation is much lower in developed economies. Since 2011 it has hovered around 1.8% and 1.3% yoy in the US and euro area respectively, but only at about 0.3% yoy in Japan (excluding the sales tax hike in 2014).
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White papersDecember Macro Dashboard
The announced Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China, as well as the Conservatives increasing their majority in the U.K. election, has tempered two of the biggest political risks hanging over the global economy. At least temporarily, sentiment is turning optimistic.
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White papersA guide to long lease real estate: Long-dated secure income for institutional investors
M&G has been generating attractive, long-dated income from long-term leases for our external clients for over a decade. In this guide, we explore the features and characteristics of the different types of long lease real estate, compare their outcomes for an institutional investor and look at the trends shaping the development of these assets.
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White papersMitigating Inflation Risk at Lower Opportunity Cost
Inflation-mitigating allocations can drag on returns when inflation is subdued: diversifying and tactical allocation can help.
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White papersScreen The Euro Fixed Income Market In The Era Of Three ‘Lows’
As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.
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White papersGrowth Near an Inflation Point, Trade Remains a Wild Card
Leading indicators appear to be bottoming out and pointing to economic healing but geopolitical tensions revolving around trade and international security continue to cloud the outlook.
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White papersTen Crises We Avoided This Year
It turns out that we are not entirely hostage to immutable economic cycles or raging political intrigue. Sometimes people make good decisions in spite of our expectations. Sometimes, to be honest, we are just plain lucky and the dice land well.
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White papersComeback Time for International Equities?
Because the U.S. equity market is broad and deep, there will almost always be opportunities—but in aggregate, we think international equity markets may be more compelling over the next year.
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White papersNovember Macro Dashboard
Global leading indicators edged higher in October; but remain in contraction territory. And while global central banks continue to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance as downside risks to growth persist.
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White papersDespite All The Focus on Trade, Inflation Remains Low
U.S. trade trouble continues with a “Phase One Deal” less than imminent, the IEA asserts how U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets and don’t hold your breath on a December Fed rate cut.
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White papersAre Negative Rates Really That Negative?
So far, they seem to work in practice, just not in theory. Negative yields seem to have helped extend the cycle, but they carry risks if they linger for too long.
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White papersItaly is the eurozone economy most likely heading for a ‘lost decade’
As Japan found out the hard way, a healthy banking sector is key to restoring health to an economy. But Europe’s third biggest economy, with its vastly undercapitalised banks, looks destined to remain in the doldrums for some time
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White papersBrexit: revamping the fiscal toolbox
The Brexit referendum was more than three years ago, but it is still not clear when the UK will leave the European Union (EU). Business has suffered and consumers may start to feel the pinch, particularly if there is a cliff-edge exit at the end of the transition period. As we head into early elections on 12 December, we consider how it may be up to fiscal policies to weather the fallout.
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White papersThree Reasons to Invest in Risk Assets… & Five Risks
Markets still have room, but the clouds are gathering. Last year’s scars remain fresh for many investors as they navigate toward the end of the year.
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White papersCore Matters Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective
2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural forces (e.g. ageing). No matter the economic scenario, FI returns over the next five years are ...
