All Inflation articles – Page 57
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Continued Support For Asset Returns
Our capital market expectations (CME) are designed to provide annualized return expectation over a longer-term horizon, typically viewed as being five to 10 years.
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Screen The Euro Fixed Income Market In The Era Of Three ‘Lows’
As 2020 approaches, the uncertainty in the market has receded but there are still risks ahead involving macroeconomic, political and technical factors. Under such a scenario and with central banks being accommodative, we do not envisage a major increase in European core bond yields from their current levels given the limited growth potential and the scarcity of tools left in the ECB’s toolkit to stimulate the economy. Should the economic situation deteriorate, there could be room for yields to fall, but probably not to the lows reached in late August/early September.
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Growth Near an Inflation Point, Trade Remains a Wild Card
Leading indicators appear to be bottoming out and pointing to economic healing but geopolitical tensions revolving around trade and international security continue to cloud the outlook.
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Ten Crises We Avoided This Year
It turns out that we are not entirely hostage to immutable economic cycles or raging political intrigue. Sometimes people make good decisions in spite of our expectations. Sometimes, to be honest, we are just plain lucky and the dice land well.
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Comeback Time for International Equities?
Because the U.S. equity market is broad and deep, there will almost always be opportunities—but in aggregate, we think international equity markets may be more compelling over the next year.
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Coping With A Changing Market Landscape
Our CIOs’ Global Investment Outlook stresses it’s important to be selective and not too complacent in 2020.
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November Macro Dashboard
Global leading indicators edged higher in October; but remain in contraction territory. And while global central banks continue to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance as downside risks to growth persist.
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Despite All The Focus on Trade, Inflation Remains Low
U.S. trade trouble continues with a “Phase One Deal” less than imminent, the IEA asserts how U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets and don’t hold your breath on a December Fed rate cut.
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Are Negative Rates Really That Negative?
So far, they seem to work in practice, just not in theory. Negative yields seem to have helped extend the cycle, but they carry risks if they linger for too long.
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Brazil On The Rise
Investor expectations of the newly elected President Bolsonaro and Economy Minister Paulo Guedes were high following an election victory based on an agenda of security and reform. In December 2018, Wall Street economists ranked Brazil as the top investment opportunity for 2019 according to the December 5-17 Bloomberg surveyi of 30 economists and investors, largely based on the market-friendly campaign promises, and an economic agenda with four stated priorities:
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Italy is the eurozone economy most likely heading for a ‘lost decade’
As Japan found out the hard way, a healthy banking sector is key to restoring health to an economy. But Europe’s third biggest economy, with its vastly undercapitalised banks, looks destined to remain in the doldrums for some time
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Cybersecurity: Trade-Offs In Technology
The cyber threat matrix accelerates as it gathers sophistication.
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Brexit: revamping the fiscal toolbox
The Brexit referendum was more than three years ago, but it is still not clear when the UK will leave the European Union (EU). Business has suffered and consumers may start to feel the pinch, particularly if there is a cliff-edge exit at the end of the transition period. As we head into early elections on 12 December, we consider how it may be up to fiscal policies to weather the fallout.
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Three Reasons to Invest in Risk Assets… & Five Risks
Markets still have room, but the clouds are gathering. Last year’s scars remain fresh for many investors as they navigate toward the end of the year.
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Core Matters Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective
2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural forces (e.g. ageing). No matter the economic scenario, FI returns over the next five years are ...
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The Four Pillars To Face A World Of Uncertainty
Global investors are facing extraordinary economic, political and financial market conditions that risk sending the world into a perilous period. In particular, we are closely watching several key areas of concern, including:
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September Macro Dashboard
Global leading indicators ticked up slightly in August, but remain in contraction territory. While global growth has slowed, risks are tilted to the downside. The mounting toll of higher trade costs, decreased investment and dwindling confidence are weighing on growth.
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Staying Nimble Amid an Uncertain Outlook
Our CIOs’ Global Investment Outlook highlights what shocks could affect the market and where they see opportunities.
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Real Assets Could Be The Alternative
A call for nimble management in Allocation Views and highlighting a perspective on alternatives.