All Inflation articles – Page 57
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - February 2021
Markets closed 2020 on strong footing and the recent Democratic sweep in the US makes a greater fiscal push more likely, leading us to lift our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the US to 5.2-5.7%, 1% above previous estimates. This marks a great divergence between the US and the rest of DM, where we have been lowering our forecasts.
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White papersItaly: ECB’s Umbrella To Protect Bond Market, Despite Uncertain Political Situation
On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now.
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White papers2021 global outlook reassessed
As the Q420 is now closed, we confirm the “financial recovery regime” as our central scenario for 2021 with a higher conviction than in Q320. We expect better corporate fundamentals at a global level going forward. The rebound of EPS growth will eventually validate current asset price levels in the context of low interest rates. This explains our cautious optimism for the coming quarters.
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White papers10 predictions for 2021: The world improves, but do markets already know?
At the start of the year, we expected economic growth to pick up modestly and were encouraged by seemingly diminishing macro risks, such as trade policy. Conversely, we were concerned by relatively full stock valuations and thought that market gains could be limited following a strong 2019.
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White papersThe Day After #13 - How Will Central Banks Impact The Equity Markets In The Post-Covid World?
Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against deflationary threats, at the risk of losing some of their independence.
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White papersECB enters era of informal yield curve and spread control
The ECB is expanding its pro-growth and pro-inflation asset purchases and allowing the buying programme to run for longer. The objective is to safeguard favourable financial conditions as the eurozone grapples with the economic fallout of the COVID crisis. In effect, the ECB is encouraging investors to search for yield, particularly in those markets for risk assets where the ECB is active.
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White papersCentral Banks: leading the path towards Impact Investing
Central Banks are right now accelerating a tectonic shift. This summer at Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman, Mr. Powell has set-up the new objectives of the FED: inclusive employment is now key. As stated, “Inflation that is persistently too low can pose serious risks to the economy”1 and an inclusive employment2 is one way to solve it; it leads the FED to “a focus on inequality”3 with an attention paid on education as “people who don’t have advanced skills now have less ability to profit from the technology that is everywhere in our economy”4.
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White papersWhy it’s so Hard to go Bankrupt… And Why That Will Change
Massive policy response has firms awash in liquidity, but 2021 will bring solvency challenges that investors need to watch closely.
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White papers2021 outlook: Dark tunnel. Bright light
Macro risks associated with the coronavirus have loomed over global markets and economies for nearly a year, and will continue for at least several months. But beyond this dark tunnel, we see a more normalised environment driven by fundamentals. Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee explores
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - December 2020
United States: after a record contraction in Q2, and an extraordinary rebound in Q3, we expect a significant deceleration in Q4, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases and given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioral indicators. Next year’s growth outlook remains supported by the supportive mix of monetary and fiscal policy.
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White papersContraction > recovery > late cycle: the cycle round trip is confirmed Advanced Investment Phazer: top-down assessment
The global recovery continues at different speeds and compositions at the regional level. Policies are pivotal in shaping the recovery trajectories, influencing market participants’ narratives and rebuilding confidence.
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White papersProperty Appreciation, Inflation and What to Expect
In a speech at the Jackson Hole summit on August 27th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced new and significant changes to U.S. monetary policy, specifically with respect to the Fed’s dual mandates of full employment and price stability.
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White papersOn the Road to Japanification
Sentiment around monetary policy, fiscal policy and a host of other factors can swing markets, but can anything return us to sustained growth and inflation?
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White papersThe day after #11 - Post-crisis narratives that will drive financial markets
The Covid-19 crisis has thrown up a sequence of images from the past (pandemics, wars, the Great Financial Crisis) that have pushed central banks (CB) and governments to act in unprecedented ways (in terms of magnitude and speed of action). This has defined the current ‘day after’ narrative.
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White papersThe day after the crisis: implications for long-term investors
In a recent piece of paper1 long-term investors found a broad analysis of the most relevant post-crisis elements they need to consider in order to make a more informed decision about their investments: central banks support, inflation situation, deglobalisation trend, low-carbon transition and inequality assessment were the main features to consider.
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White papersReal estate’s role as an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world
The Federal Reserve’s recent Jackson Hole Symposium has renewed attention on inflation in light of the unprecedented global fiscal and monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic If inflation exceeds capital market expectations, risk assets could underperform. As such, investors should consider assets which may offer some protection against a potential increase in inflation
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White papersPushing on an Open Door – Covid 19 is Intensifying Long Term Macro Trends
The COVID-19 pandemic has had historic—and nearly immediate—repercussions for society, the global economy and policy. The aftereffects will last for many years, reinforcing long-term trends including deglobalization, populism and mounting debt. How will governments tackle the debt overhang—and how do these trends impact our macro views?
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White papersPushing on an Open Door: COVID-19 is Intensifying Long-term Macro Trends…Especially Debt Overhangs
The COVID-19 pandemic has had historic—and nearly immediate—repercussions for society, the global economy and policy. The aftereffects will last for many years, reinforcing long-term trends including deglobalization, populism and mounting debt.
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White papersHow Long Can This Go On?
U.S. government debts may set new records, but investors should focus more on borrowing costs and growth rates.
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White papersECB QE Monitor – June 2020
ECB strengthened its intention to make its action long-term: The ECB revised its medium-term inflation target substantially on the downside. Core inflation is forecast to reach only 0.9% in 2022 (0.8% in 2020, 0.7% in 2021). The ECB justified the adjustment of the size of the PEPP by ...
