All Inflation articles – Page 58
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - June 2021
Inflation has remained dormant for a long time, with years of below-target and weak inflation, but we are now reaching a delicate juncture where inflation is taking the driver’s seat in financial markets.
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White papersInflation, Expectations & Listening to Your Parrot
“Catch a parrot,” goes the old adage, “teach him to say ‘supply and demand’ and you have an excellent economist.”
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White papersOur thoughts on inflation – And why we just don’t buy it!
In our view, in the wake of the sell-off and reset in valuations for environmental sector stocks in the first half of the year, the fundamentals have never looked more attractive.
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White papersMid-Year 2021 Outlook
Covid-19 negatively impacted 2020 European growth to various degrees. Regardless of its precise speed, the 2021-22 recovery is expected to be solid. But, this strength is also raising concerns on inflation.
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White papersA sneak peek into the second half – What to expect for equities?
As economies recover from last year’s collapse in demand, partly on the back of large-scale government budget spending and amid ultra-low interest rates, investors can expect inflation to bounce higher as well, especially in sectors that were hit hard in the COVID-induced slump.
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White papersRunning Out of People
Understanding the forces that will one day fuel persistent price increases helps clarify why inflation is less of a problem now.
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White papersWebinar - Inflation: Back on the Agenda
It has been a long time since investors had to worry about rising inflation and interest rates at the global level. Over recent months, however, the prospect of a strong economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis, compounded by unprecedented fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy, has sent bond market inflation expectations soaring.
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White papersUS inflation – Higher for longer?
US inflation looks set to rise significantly heading into the summer. Contrary to the view that this will be a temporary increase, a number of forces could combine to create greater structural pressure pushing prices higher for longer.
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White papersUp, Up, but Not (Run) Away Inflation
The latest round of euro area lockdowns caused less damage than initially feared. Earnings on both sides of the Atlantic continue to beat expectations amid the favorable economic backdrop. Meanwhile, in China, PMIs suggest that the growth driver may be shifting.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - May 2021
We note progress on the vaccine front despite logistics and side effects issues. In our central scenario, equities outperform on the back of abundant liquidity, improving fundamentals and accommodative monetary policy.
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White papersREITS and Rates
History suggests that real estate securities can be an attractive investment if you expect inflation and rates to go higher.
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White papersCoiled Spring
Exceptional garden pinks and yellows mark the arrival of seasonal spring, but the world’s economic data outline a “coiled spring”.
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White papersInflation: Preparing your portfolio for the surge
After falling to almost zero during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of U.S. inflation is on the rise. To navigate the current market environment, today’s investor must understand how quickly the United States economic recovery will generate inflation, how long that inflation will be sustained, and what investment implications follow.
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White papers2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential
We confirm the financial “recovery regime” as a central scenario (with a 70% probability) for the next 12 to 18 months, with growth and macro determinants remaining paramount.
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White papersThe end of the Great Moderation and the return of volatility
Since the mid-1980s, the macroeconomic volatility has declined to a postwar low.
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White papersA Few Sparks & Lots of Smoke—But Still No Sign of a Fire
As investors search for signs of uncontrolled inflation, it’s hard to see anything more than you’d expect in a strong cyclical recovery.
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White papersStill Searching for (Lasting) Inflation
Markit flash PMIs suggest European economies are improving. In the U.S., stimulus and reopenings drove the composite PMI to a record high, and consumer confidence is rising sharply. Elsewhere, the BOJ revised growth projections higher amid strong external demand.
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White papersFed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom
Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #2 - Inflation: something deep awakens
One year ago, as the Covid-19 crisis had just begun, we wrote about its potential inflation implications from both a cyclical and a structural standpoint. Cyclically, the crisis was already generating a combination of demand and supply shocks that could only increase short-term inflation volatility and sectoral fragmentation.
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White papersShoppers Are Back—Spending is the New Saving
Europe remains on track for a delayed recovery as consumers weathered winter lockdowns fairly well. In the U.S., retail sales and inflation data popped up in March. Elsewhere, credit growth in China slowed as policymakers remain confident in the economic recovery.
