All Inflation articles – Page 58
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Q4 Economic Outlook: Learning To Live With Deflation...
In his latest Economic outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that Japan-style deflation is becoming an increasing possibility elsewhere. While it may not involve a general downturn in living standards – Japan after all remains a prosperous G3, $5trn economy (almost twice the UK’s) – the main challenge would be the shift in mind-set needed to live with it.
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Leaders’ Perspectives: Quarterly – Autumn 2019
In the Autumn 2019 issue of the Leader’s Perspectives:
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Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package.
The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.
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Don't Panic - Just Yet - How to navigate the buoys and the rocks of today’s markets.
There’s a moment that sends a chill down the spine of any sailor when a rock suddenly appears, off wrong side of the bow. It doesn’t really matter whether the chart was wrong or the skipper missed a buoy—it’s undeniably a sign of trouble.
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Trade Tensions Flare: Where Do We Go from Here?
Central bank actions and new trade tensions have created more questions than answers.
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Pick a Number, Any Number
Among Three Central Rate Forecasts, The Middle Still Feels Right.
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Slow global growth compels the Fed to cut interest rates
The Federal Reserve has reduced its policy rate target for the first time since 2008. Economic data in the U.S. have been solid, but global growth is slow and a variety of policy risks hang over the outlook like dark clouds.
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What We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Think
It’s not even clear that central banks themselves understand what’s going on. Lower unemployment doesn’t seem to nudge inflation higher, as it once did. Commodity prices may, but not reliably.
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Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook Q3 2019
Changing rate environment, heterogeneity within Europe, and a combination of broad macro factors and idiosyncratic situations should create opportunities.
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How Europe Took a Knife to a Gunfight
The continent has made remarkable progress… but its economic interests remain vulnerable in a world that once again favors a sharp elbow over a memorandum of understanding.
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Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy
Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.
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Core Matter: A Deeper Look into Financial Vulnerabilities
Almost ten years of record low interest rates have raised leverage in the non-financial sector as well as investors’ tolerance for riskier and less liquid instruments. As a result, the average quality of corporate debt has worsened. Credit risk has shifted away from banks to asset managers. Mutual funds’ ...
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Expectations Diverge
A broad-based stock rally in the early part of this year extended a notable divergence to the less optimistic views being reflected in government bond markets.
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Modern Monetary Theory: Could it go mainstream?
An obscure and heterodox branch of economic theory is quickly gaining support from prominent politicians in the US and beyond, which could have big implications for policymaking, argues David Nowakowski.
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Asset Manager News
Amplified: There’s more than one side to any investment story
We are now in the tail end of the second quarter of an already eventful year, with investors facing a range of stark choices.
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Should Markets Heed Recession Warnings?
How are fundamentals? Ed Perks, our CIO of Multi Asset Solutions, describes the backdrop for the US remaining relatively strong.
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How will the world respond to the next economic crisis?
The longest US economic expansion on record spanned a decade from March 1991 to March 2001. With the country’s current period of sustained growth poised to surpass this 10-year record in July, we examine the possible response to the next crisis.
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Will ECB Change Course to End Negative Rates?
Negative rates aimed at boosting European bank lending instead had the opposite effect. Will the ECB end this policy and raise rates in 2019?
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Is Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks
Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its monetary policy, helped in this, it must be said, by a fiscal and tax policy that has never been as pro-cyclical as in recent years (the Trump years).
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Liquidity Insights: Euro FX Responds to Brexit, U.S. Inflation
There are many factors that can influence FX exchange rates, including event risk and fundamental economic data. To manage such risk, traders have often turned to futures and options. Recent events around the world have caused dramatic moves in exchange rates, particularly for currencies impacted by the chaos of Brexit.