All Inflation articles – Page 58
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White papersCore Matters Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective
2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural forces (e.g. ageing). No matter the economic scenario, FI returns over the next five years are ...
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White papersSeptember Macro Dashboard
Global leading indicators ticked up slightly in August, but remain in contraction territory. While global growth has slowed, risks are tilted to the downside. The mounting toll of higher trade costs, decreased investment and dwindling confidence are weighing on growth.
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White papersQ4 Economic Outlook: Learning To Live With Deflation...
In his latest Economic outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that Japan-style deflation is becoming an increasing possibility elsewhere. While it may not involve a general downturn in living standards – Japan after all remains a prosperous G3, $5trn economy (almost twice the UK’s) – the main challenge would be the shift in mind-set needed to live with it.
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White papersLeaders’ Perspectives: Quarterly – Autumn 2019
In the Autumn 2019 issue of the Leader’s Perspectives:
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White papers
Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package.
The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.
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White papersDon't Panic - Just Yet - How to navigate the buoys and the rocks of today’s markets.
There’s a moment that sends a chill down the spine of any sailor when a rock suddenly appears, off wrong side of the bow. It doesn’t really matter whether the chart was wrong or the skipper missed a buoy—it’s undeniably a sign of trouble.
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White papersPick a Number, Any Number
Among Three Central Rate Forecasts, The Middle Still Feels Right.
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White papersSlow global growth compels the Fed to cut interest rates
The Federal Reserve has reduced its policy rate target for the first time since 2008. Economic data in the U.S. have been solid, but global growth is slow and a variety of policy risks hang over the outlook like dark clouds.
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White papersWhat We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Think
It’s not even clear that central banks themselves understand what’s going on. Lower unemployment doesn’t seem to nudge inflation higher, as it once did. Commodity prices may, but not reliably.
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White papers
How Europe Took a Knife to a Gunfight
The continent has made remarkable progress… but its economic interests remain vulnerable in a world that once again favors a sharp elbow over a memorandum of understanding.
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White papersTurkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy
Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.
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White papersCore Matter: A Deeper Look into Financial Vulnerabilities
Almost ten years of record low interest rates have raised leverage in the non-financial sector as well as investors’ tolerance for riskier and less liquid instruments. As a result, the average quality of corporate debt has worsened. Credit risk has shifted away from banks to asset managers. Mutual funds’ ...
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Asset Manager NewsAmplified: There’s more than one side to any investment story
We are now in the tail end of the second quarter of an already eventful year, with investors facing a range of stark choices.
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White papersHow will the world respond to the next economic crisis?
The longest US economic expansion on record spanned a decade from March 1991 to March 2001. With the country’s current period of sustained growth poised to surpass this 10-year record in July, we examine the possible response to the next crisis.
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White papers
Will ECB Change Course to End Negative Rates?
Negative rates aimed at boosting European bank lending instead had the opposite effect. Will the ECB end this policy and raise rates in 2019?
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White papersIs Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks
Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its monetary policy, helped in this, it must be said, by a fiscal and tax policy that has never been as pro-cyclical as in recent years (the Trump years).
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White papers
Liquidity Insights: Euro FX Responds to Brexit, U.S. Inflation
There are many factors that can influence FX exchange rates, including event risk and fundamental economic data. To manage such risk, traders have often turned to futures and options. Recent events around the world have caused dramatic moves in exchange rates, particularly for currencies impacted by the chaos of Brexit.
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White papersEuropean elections in an era of economic and political disruption
The stakes are high for elections to the European Parliament in May: they will test populist strength across the bloc at a time when economic momentum is weak. In this edition of Ahead of the Curve, we examine how this dynamic could steer the agenda in the weeks before the vote.
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White papers
Fed's Five Critical Issues
The Fed is facing five issues that could play a key role in its forward guidance on monetary policy, chief among them being the trade war and the economy.
