All Inflation articles – Page 53
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How hot is the inflation pot? Strategies to protect portfolios from inflation risk
As the global economy emerges from its worst slump since the 1930s, we envisage plenty of inflation fertilisers at stake, especially in the United States. Inflationary trends could emerge due to a combination of factors, including the cyclical recovery as countries try to get the pandemic under control and gradually lift mitigation measures.
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Fixed-income markets: from cyclical to structural challenges
Since the start of the year, bond yields have surged in the economies of the G10 as markets anticipate a sharp acceleration in inflation and economic activity. This rebound is likely to be particularly strong in the US given its enormous fiscal stimulus plan. In the medium term, opinion is divided concerning the post-Covid crisis macroeconomic trajectory and a possible change in the inflation regime in the US.
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A U.S. Treasury Bear is Born
Bear markets typically begin cloaked in a spirit of denial. Confutation can be virtuous because decline owns up to problems and making a change to solve them is often too painful. It’s human nature to seek pleasure to avoid pain. So, folks resist and hang on to their dogmas unyielding beliefs like “inflation hasn’t happened and can’t happen because demographics and technology won’t allow it to happen just look at Europe and Japan.” Certainly, an entire generation has grown to acquaint a bond bear but just for a brief “hello” and a more celebrated long “good-bye”.
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How to Invest in the “Best of All Possible Worlds”
Markets should worry less about inflation and more about government investment that produces higher rates of sustainable growth.
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Watch For More Inflation Jitters
Markit flash PMIs show that, in the U.S., easing of restrictions, vaccine rollout, and fiscal stimulus are aiding the rebound in manufacturing and services sectors.
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The post-COVID-19 world, with Capital Group’s Night Watch
Our Night Watch approach was built from lessons we learned in the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as a way to engage in scenario planning around big systemic issues.
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Spotlight on credit: Reflation - The end of inflation’s “great moderation”?
Credit markets may face challenges if reflationary policies stimulate a concerted return for inflation.
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The U.S. Grabs the Global Recovery Baton…
Slow vaccination programs continue to delay the reopening of EU economies. The Fed showed that even with better growth and inflation outlooks, it remains committed to its accommodative stance. Elsewhere, China activity data so far this year shows the uneven recovery continues.
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Hedging against inflation: Do you really understand inflation-linked bonds?
US inflation expectations have risen over the last year, and with the passage of an additional USD 1.9 trillion stimulus package, any investor who was not already worried about inflation is likely to have started paying attention.
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Five Factors Shaping the Global Economy in 2021
From interest rates and inflation to government stimulus and multi-speed recoveries, Dr. Christopher Smart tells us what we know today—and what we still need to find out—about the global economy’s comeback from COVID-19.
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Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions Allocations Views: Some like it hot?
Fiscal support may be uneven across geographies, driving regional preferences within equities: thoughts from our Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team.
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Do not give up on fundamental valuations
It’s been one year now since the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the world. It changed our lives, but financial markets seem to have side-lined this dramatic event as a temporary pullback, which was quickly recovered and forgotten as most risk assets achieved new highs.
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How to tackle the positive growth outlook as a bond investor?
Bond investors face a tougher environment: (expected) growth is pushing interest rates up from record lows, foreshadowing the eventual end of the ‘lower-for-longer’ era.
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China’s disinflation and implications
China has abandoned its ‘growth at all cost’ push and is sticking with its deleveraging and structural reform policy despite the trade war with the US and COVID-19 shocks. This has resulted in a constrained growth environment.
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How Much Further Will US Rates Rise?
US Treasury yields have surged recently, buoyed by rising optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. Based on our growth forecast, longer-term rates will likely rise for the next few quarters—but more slowly. And we think the Fed is prepared to push in the other direction if rates rise too far, too fast.
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Market scenarios and risks - March 2021
This month, we maintain the probabilities and narrative of our central and alternative scenarios. We confirm our constructive medium-term view on the “financial recovery regime”, with more caution in the short-term on financial markets, given the virus-dependent news flow and inflation concerns.
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Coming Out Of Covid-19: A Look At Interest Rates And Inflation In Europe
There is hope European economies will see a more robust recovery this year, but will inflation will pick up as a result?
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Fixed Income - Inflation: The Devil We Knew
Dr. Sonal Desai cautions that central bankers might be underestimating how difficult it will be to deal with inflation—especially if expectations become unmoored.
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RPI reform: The implications for real assets
With the methodology for calculating the UK Retail Prices Index set to change in 2030, we explore the implications for real assets.
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Global Investment Views - March 2021
If the start of 2021 led markets to question the no inflation forever mantra, the debate has been hotting up in February, with the US 10Y inflation breakeven reaching its highest level since 2014, pricing in higher inflation expectations. We are also seeing pricing pressure on the food and energy side.