All Inflation articles – Page 56
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White papersThe post-COVID-19 world, with Capital Group’s Night Watch
Our Night Watch approach was built from lessons we learned in the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as a way to engage in scenario planning around big systemic issues.
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White papersSpotlight on credit: Reflation - The end of inflation’s “great moderation”?
Credit markets may face challenges if reflationary policies stimulate a concerted return for inflation.
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White papersThe U.S. Grabs the Global Recovery Baton…
Slow vaccination programs continue to delay the reopening of EU economies. The Fed showed that even with better growth and inflation outlooks, it remains committed to its accommodative stance. Elsewhere, China activity data so far this year shows the uneven recovery continues.
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White papersHedging against inflation: Do you really understand inflation-linked bonds?
US inflation expectations have risen over the last year, and with the passage of an additional USD 1.9 trillion stimulus package, any investor who was not already worried about inflation is likely to have started paying attention.
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White papersFive Factors Shaping the Global Economy in 2021
From interest rates and inflation to government stimulus and multi-speed recoveries, Dr. Christopher Smart tells us what we know today—and what we still need to find out—about the global economy’s comeback from COVID-19.
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White papersDo not give up on fundamental valuations
It’s been one year now since the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the world. It changed our lives, but financial markets seem to have side-lined this dramatic event as a temporary pullback, which was quickly recovered and forgotten as most risk assets achieved new highs.
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White papersHow to tackle the positive growth outlook as a bond investor?
Bond investors face a tougher environment: (expected) growth is pushing interest rates up from record lows, foreshadowing the eventual end of the ‘lower-for-longer’ era.
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White papersChina’s disinflation and implications
China has abandoned its ‘growth at all cost’ push and is sticking with its deleveraging and structural reform policy despite the trade war with the US and COVID-19 shocks. This has resulted in a constrained growth environment.
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White papersHow Much Further Will US Rates Rise?
US Treasury yields have surged recently, buoyed by rising optimism about economic growth and rising inflation expectations. Based on our growth forecast, longer-term rates will likely rise for the next few quarters—but more slowly. And we think the Fed is prepared to push in the other direction if rates rise too far, too fast.
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White papersMarket scenarios and risks - March 2021
This month, we maintain the probabilities and narrative of our central and alternative scenarios. We confirm our constructive medium-term view on the “financial recovery regime”, with more caution in the short-term on financial markets, given the virus-dependent news flow and inflation concerns.
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White papersRPI reform: The implications for real assets
With the methodology for calculating the UK Retail Prices Index set to change in 2030, we explore the implications for real assets.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - March 2021
If the start of 2021 led markets to question the no inflation forever mantra, the debate has been hotting up in February, with the US 10Y inflation breakeven reaching its highest level since 2014, pricing in higher inflation expectations. We are also seeing pricing pressure on the food and energy side.
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White papersLots of Stimulus, Not Much Inflation
Weak U.S. jobs data fuels debate for further fiscal stimulus but some worry inflation may overshoot the Fed’s target this year. In China, the PBOC is tapering monetary stimulus. In Europe, the Q4 contraction was less severe than initially thought, but the recovery looks delayed.
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White papersWhat do the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures mean for inflation?
As the largest vaccination programme in history commences, risk markets appear to be ignoring the logistical challenges or near-term downside growth risks from tighter lockdowns imposed after infection rates in Northern Hemisphere countries soared over the winter.
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White papers*Fixed income outlook – From despair to hope*
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields.
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White papersTaper or not taper: a key issue for markets
The Fed is committed to maintaining very accommodative monetary conditions and unchanged interest rates until the economy has returned to full employment and inflation has stabilised above its 2.0% target. But the Fed has so far been vague on what determines the pace of its asset purchases. It is clear that these will have to decline long before it raises its key rates. But when and on what basis?
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2021
After a year of profound economic and market turbulence, we anticipate improving global growth in 2021. Accelerated vaccine distribution should allow for wider reopening, while the release of pent-up demand and ongoing monetary support will likely help drive renewed expansion.
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White papersDon’t Mistake Growth for Quality
As investors adjust for a potential style rotation, we urge them not to abandon their portfolios’ “quality compounders” and “transition winners.”
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White papersU.S. Consumers: Don’t Worry, They’re Here to Stay
Worsening U.S. consumer confidence data shows the labor market is expected to remain fragile, though spending should improve due to greater fiscal support. Eurozone inflation will likely accelerate slightly, and strong trade data from Asia shows global demand’s resiliency.
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White papersIncome and inflation: Play to your strengths
For years, investors of all stripes, from the world’s largest institutions investors to individuals, have focused on the risk of persistently low interest rates and the struggle to achieve income. But there’s another potential risk on the horizon, with similarly damaging effects, that also demands focus: prospects for rising inflation and the erosion of purchasing power.
