All Inflation articles – Page 56
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To Trade or Not to Trade? That is the Question…
Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and China, the U.S. has signaled they won’t tear up the trade deal, yet. Inflation may be impacted by weaker demand and lower oil prices. The ECB weighs what to do next after Germany ruled its QE program violated its constitution.
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Adventures on the Planet of the Apes: Navigating the Low-Rate Environment
Artificially low rates are causing multiple distortions and pockets of heightened risks—and while the current environment may be unprecedented, it need not be incomprehensible. Investors who understand the dynamics driving low rates may be positioned to take advantage of promising opportunities.
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Market weekly – Fixed income: Deflation, not inflation, is the main risk now
After a rollercoaster ride in April, senior investment strategist Daniel Morris and Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income, discuss what will matter next for developed bond markets.
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The outlook for eurozone inflation-linked bonds
A V-shape economic recovery in the eurozone looks unlikely, while member states continue their marathon search for a compromise on how to fund the reconstruction. The poor outlook for the economy and inflation, and the ECB’s asset purchases, should keep eurozone government bond yields low and cap the risk premiums on ‘peripheral’ bonds.
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Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
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COVID-19: What will unprecedented policy response mean for economies and markets?
While global policymakers around the world have acted with unprecedented speed and force to the COVID-19 pandemic, their actions are unlikely to prevent the world falling into the deepest recession since World War II.
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10 (mostly new) predictions for 2020: A light at the end of a very long tunnel
We launched our original set of 2020 predictions a few months ago with the theme, “Uncertainties diminish, but markets struggle.” The coronavirus pandemic and resulting economic and market upheaval have since changed everything. In early March, consensus expectations for 2020 global GDP growth were +3%. Now they are -3%.1 A 6% swing would be unusual over a three-year time period. We just saw one in a month.
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RPI may be flawed, but changes shouldn’t cost pensioners and investors
With the start of the consultation for proposed changes to the measurement of inflation in the UK, we look at the likely impact to asset classes, the assets most affected, and the key issues investors should be aware of.
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South Africa Inflation
South African inflation came out higher in January: 4.5% yoy compared to 4% in December but is in the middle of the inflation target (3-6%) of the South African Central Bank (SARB). This acceleration in inflation is mainly explained by a sharp rise in transport prices linked to base effects of fuel prices (+ 13.7% in January against 2.4% the previous month).
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Turkey: Inflation And Monetary Policy
January’s inflation report and last inflation figures: The Governor of the CBRT debriefed last week on the first inflation report of the year January inflation figure released at 12.15% yoy, higher than in December (11.84%). The rise in housing, electricity and energy were the main drivers pf this increase. ...
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Investment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed
While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle.
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Focal Point US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed
We expect the US economy to cool this year. Growth will likely ease from 2.2% to 1.6% because of the full effect of tariffs becoming effective during the first half of the year. The lagged impact of the 2019 rate cuts and that of the additional reduction we expect for Q2 will engineer a soft landing of the economy, despite still substantial headwinds. The Fed will take big steps to adapt its monetary policy strategy to a low-inflation, low-interest rates world. The broad view of this strategy should be clearer by summer, but the dovish bias it will most likely produce will be welcomed by markets.
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On My Mind: Will The US Economy Survive The Politics In 2020?
What might investors worry about? Dr. Sonal Desai, our Fixed Income CIO, covers her expectations for 2020.
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Blog: China themes for 2020 – growth and policy (2/2)
What to expect economically from superpower China in 2020? In the final part of this two-part series, senior economist Chi Lo discusses the outlook for inflation, growth and central bank policy.
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Our convictions for emerging markets in 2020
GDP growth should be stronger across many emerging markets in 2020 as Anjeza Kadilli explains.
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Core Matters: Where has inflation gone?
Over the past decades global inflation has been trending down. It averaged 8% yoy in the 1980s but stands at just 2.7% yoy in the current decade. Inflation is much lower in developed economies. Since 2011 it has hovered around 1.8% and 1.3% yoy in the US and euro area respectively, but only at about 0.3% yoy in Japan (excluding the sales tax hike in 2014).
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December Macro Dashboard
The announced Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China, as well as the Conservatives increasing their majority in the U.K. election, has tempered two of the biggest political risks hanging over the global economy. At least temporarily, sentiment is turning optimistic.
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A guide to long lease real estate: Long-dated secure income for institutional investors
M&G has been generating attractive, long-dated income from long-term leases for our external clients for over a decade. In this guide, we explore the features and characteristics of the different types of long lease real estate, compare their outcomes for an institutional investor and look at the trends shaping the development of these assets.
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2020 appears tilted to the downside
The themes we discuss at our Annual Investment Symposium guide our research process. Over a longer-term horizon, we believe global stocks have greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by continued growth and moderate inflation. With government bond term-premia remaining below historical averages, we see a lower performance potential from government bonds.
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Mitigating Inflation Risk at Lower Opportunity Cost
Inflation-mitigating allocations can drag on returns when inflation is subdued: diversifying and tactical allocation can help.