On 13 January, Italia Viva – a minor coalition partner led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi – pulled out of the ruling coalition, leaving the government short of a majority in the Senate. However, we believe that snap elections are unlikely for now.
In our view, the most likely scenarios are: Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte could seek to win a confidence vote, with support from parties both inside and outside the ruling majority and also unaffiliated lawmakers (Gruppo Misto); Conte could step down, triggering a new round of talks that could eventually lead to a new administration, headed by Conte himself or another Prime Minister, with support from the same alliance; or a caretaker administration could be appointed to manage the government until the next election.
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