All Inflation articles – Page 23
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - First Quarter 2023
After a year defined by inflation and the policy response to it, we expect 2023 to be a year of transition. The timing of that transition, however, remains unclear and is likely to be defined by the amount of damage done to the economy by this tightening cycle.
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White papers2023 Outlook: Long-term perspective on markets and economies
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets.
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PodcastWhat Goes Up Must Come Down…Right?
As we wrap up on the past year, many would agree that the predominant market trend that impacted investors would have to be inflation. In 2022, inflation levels rose to the highest we have seen in four decades. How did we get here?
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White papersU.S. Economic & Property Market Perspective 04 2022
The Federal Reserve spent much of 2022 attempting to convince financial markets they are committed to controlling inflation, pulling forward the pace of interest rate increases and raising the expected so-called “terminal rate” for overnight borrowing at each of the last five monetary policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
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PodcastSolving for 2023: How the Tables Have Turned
As we conclude another year of volatile markets, geopolitical turmoil as well as record-setting inflation getting added to the mix, one could say that 2022 was truly an eventful year. But as we reflect on the pivotal events that occurred, what lessons can investors take away as we prepare for the year ahead? Could there be an end in sight for the volatility? And what asset classes might investors want to delve into in the coming year, now more than ever?
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White papersA downturn is ahead, but pinpointing when and where is the real question
Around this time last year we expected high yield markets to rebound after an August reboot. However, as at the end of October we were looking at our global high yield benchmark losing 15% from the start of 2022. Against this, we did correctly predict that the global yield market would outperform gilts and sterling credit, and that emerging market debt would be a key area of weakness, delivering returns well below the US and European regions.
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White papersCreditably building into risk positions amid falling markets
A series of bear market catalysts punctuated 2022 – from ongoing supply chain issues to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, political instability in parts of Europe, rising inflation and higher interest rates. While the economic environment would prescribe taking a step back to crouch and observe as the cycle plays through, government bond and credit valuations tell a different story, writes Gaurav Chatley, a Senior Portfolio Manager for European Credit at M&G Investments.
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White papersIG Credit Outlook 2023: Adding balance to portfolios
It has been a difficult year for fixed income in general. Stocks and bonds rarely decline in tandem in a calendar year, and 2022 was the only exception in the 45-year period dating back to 1977.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - January 2023
The bear market rally materialised, but strong US November job market data cooled the markets’ dovish narrative, creating a mixed picture for US inflation, given that the service components remain sticky. The Fed, for its part, slowed the pace of rate hikes, but reiterated that its job is far from over. We believe central banks, including the ECB, will be walking a policy tightrope, as risks of mistakes are high.
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White papersOutlook for 2023: Complicated, fragmented macro road map
Brandywine Global: A complicated, fragmented world adds to the heightened uncertainty over what next year may bring for markets. Our top macroeconomic and investment experts offer their outlooks for 2023.
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White papersEmerging Markets Debt: Springtime in January?
With the inflation and geopolitical fogs around the world dissipating, and a monetary policy pivot potentially in the cards, 2023 is shaping up to be a promising year for emerging markets debt.
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White papersMore Complicated From Here
If you thought this year was difficult, just wait. The good news is that the extreme outcomes investors worried about through most of 2022 look less likely for 2023.
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White papersWhy It’s About to Get Even More Complicated From Here
This year’s choices were hardly simple, but economic policymakers in China, Europe and the United States face much trickier decisions in 2023.
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BlogYield is Destiny; Bonds are Back
Bond investors shouldn’t lose sight of the fact 2022’s historic increase in bond yields could lead to bond returns in the next decade that are two to three times higher than the prior decade.
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White papersTreasury yields fall as the Fed hikes once more
U.S. Treasury yields fell last week. The November U.S. CPI report showed a smaller-than-expected monthly increase. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a 50 bps hike as expected, but also included hawkish economic projections that called into question the future of monetary policy.
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White papersHawkish surprise from the ECB
At its December meeting, the ECB hiked rates by 50bp, to 2.0% (deposit rate). The Bank delivered a very hawkish statement. Inflation remains the main concern and top priority.
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White papersThe price of sustainability
Over the past couple of years, sustainable companies aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have underperformed – but for the Federated Hermes Global Equities team, this could be about to change.
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White papersSpectrum, Q4 2022
A year has passed since our Q4 2021 edition of Spectrum, in which we invited investors to consider the consequences of ‘sticky’ inflation. Suffice to say, a lot has happened since then, and the question of higher-for-longer inflation has been answered in no uncertain terms.
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White papersFed: Staying the course until the job is done
FOMC statement and press conference: On 14 December, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked the Fed Funds Rate by 50bp to 4.25-4.50%, a step down after four consecutive 75bp rate hikes. This takes the Fed Funds Rate further into restrictive territory.
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White papersHas the dollar hit its high-water mark?
A weaking dollar raises questions on the future trajectory of Fed monetary policy.
