Global growth forecast revised higher, again

“As long as inflation is not resurging, better growth should support equities. We favour a diversified global approach and selective stories, such as India.”

  • With 2024 global GDP growth forecast similar to the numbers of 2023, the IMF is no longer expecting a slowdown.
  • While less optimistic than the IMF, we have also just increased our global growth forecast to 2.8%.
  • Equities may prolong their rise, conditional on continuing disinflation. Global equity and India in focus.

The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook has revised up the growth forecasts to 3.2% real GDP growth in 2024. The 2024 forecast was 3.1% in January and 2.9% in October 2023. Indeed, the global economy (and, in particular, the US economy, key to global financial markets) continue to show surprising resilience to the rapid interest rate hikes of 2022-23. While not as optimistic as the IMF, we at Amundi have also increased our global GDP growth forecast, with higher growth expected in particular in the USA. As long as disinflation continues, even gradually, this higher growth may continue to support equities. A global approach including Emerging Markets could be favoured moving forward. India also stands out thanks to its high growth profile, among the highest in EM.

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