All Government Bonds articles – Page 9
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - October 2023
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 9 October 2023
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White papersA bond market bruising: market snapshot
The yield on global government bonds reached multi-decade highs this week, as markets adjust to a sustained period of higher interest rates.
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White papersHigher for Longer, Longer the Stronger
We are leaning into quality as markets start to focus away from near-term tailwinds and onto medium-term headwinds.
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White papersMarkets hit by ‘higher for longer’ rate expectations
After a volatile September, the S&P 500 Index is heading towards its first quarterly loss in 12 months.
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White papersIncome Generator: Back in Bonds
Bonds are once again becoming a cornerstone allocation within portfolios. We explain five actions bond investors could consider to capitalize on current trends we’ve identified.
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White papersShould investors fret over talk of China heading for a ‘balance sheet recession’?
China’s economy shows symptoms of a ‘balance sheet recession’, which can destroy wealth and confidence, force economic agents to cut spending, and create a debt deflation spiral and prolonged stagnation. So should investors worry?
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White papersThe what, why and how of the global fixed income and municipal markets
The evolving fixed income market environment: Key 2023 themes
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - July/August 2023
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 17 July 2023
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2023
Central banks are finding it hard to finish the long journey toward inflation normalization, but we believe that policy rates are likely at or near their peaks—and could be maintained at elevated levels for some time. In an environment of slowing growth, restrictive monetary policy and rising idiosyncratic risk, we favor shorter durations, quality and a focus on security selection.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation: Q3 2023
As most central banks are nearing the end of the hiking cycle, JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI Index remained at a level consistent with a contraction. It was the ninth consecutive month below the neutral level of 50.
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White papersGlobal Risks 2023 – Mid-Year Review
Since our last global risks update in January, we believe risks have increased, on balance.
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PodcastIndependence Day 2023: A Look Across U.S. Municipalities
Dennis Derby and Christine Collins discuss the upcoming Fourth of July holiday and specific reasons for investors to celebrate muni investing in the U.S.
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White papersDemystifying recent banking turmoil: What happened and what’s next?
Markets have calmed down considerably since the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse put the banking system in the spotlight. Is the worst really over or will other large banks come under pressure? Here, we explore the recent collapses and their causes, and share our views on whether, and which, banks may experience further trouble.
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White papersKeeping Your Balance as the Credit Cycle Turns
Striking the right balance between interest-rate and credit risk can be a good idea in the late stages of a credit cycle. We think it’s a particularly good idea in this credit cycle.
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White papersMid-year outlook 2023: macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 13 June 2023
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White papersMid-year outlook 2023: global themes
Central banks face a dilemma. Substantial monetary tightening has reduced headline inflation, but core measures are proving sticky, both in Europe and the United States. Even though inflation is still well above central bank targets, markets expect policy rates to be near their peaks. As central banks retain credibility, most measures of inflation expectations remain anchored.
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White papersWhy R-star may rise, and its implications for rates and policy
R-star is the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is at full employment. If the central bank sets its policy rate below R-star, then its monetary policy position is accommodative. The Fed currently believes R-star is about 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the Fed’s calculation of 2% a decade ago.
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White papersEcuador’s $650 million debt-for-nature swap targets Galápagos protection
The country has conducted the world’s largest such swap in what is likely to be a template for others to follow
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White papersThe case for a higher-inflation regime
Financial markets are convinced headline inflation rates will fall sharply towards central bank targets over the next two years, with stable expectations in the medium to longer term.
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White papersWhy the next economic recovery may be stronger than expected
Three questions have weighed on investors’ minds for months: Will there be a recession? How bad will it be? And what comes next?
