All Government Bonds articles – Page 6
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White papersDemystifying recent banking turmoil: What happened and what’s next?
Markets have calmed down considerably since the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse put the banking system in the spotlight. Is the worst really over or will other large banks come under pressure? Here, we explore the recent collapses and their causes, and share our views on whether, and which, banks may experience further trouble.
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White papersKeeping Your Balance as the Credit Cycle Turns
Striking the right balance between interest-rate and credit risk can be a good idea in the late stages of a credit cycle. We think it’s a particularly good idea in this credit cycle.
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White papersMid-year outlook 2023: macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 13 June 2023
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White papersMid-year outlook 2023: global themes
Central banks face a dilemma. Substantial monetary tightening has reduced headline inflation, but core measures are proving sticky, both in Europe and the United States. Even though inflation is still well above central bank targets, markets expect policy rates to be near their peaks. As central banks retain credibility, most measures of inflation expectations remain anchored.
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White papersWhy R-star may rise, and its implications for rates and policy
R-star is the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is at full employment. If the central bank sets its policy rate below R-star, then its monetary policy position is accommodative. The Fed currently believes R-star is about 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the Fed’s calculation of 2% a decade ago.
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White papersEcuador’s $650 million debt-for-nature swap targets Galápagos protection
The country has conducted the world’s largest such swap in what is likely to be a template for others to follow
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BlogWill the Fed’s Policy Bundle Morph into a Bungle?
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold monetary policy steady was expected but its arrival carries a set of nuanced ramifications.
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White papersThe case for a higher-inflation regime
Financial markets are convinced headline inflation rates will fall sharply towards central bank targets over the next two years, with stable expectations in the medium to longer term.
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White papersWhy the next economic recovery may be stronger than expected
Three questions have weighed on investors’ minds for months: Will there be a recession? How bad will it be? And what comes next?
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White papersSeven questions for investors on the US debt ceiling
What is it? US debt ceiling is a statutory limit imposed on the total debt the government is allowed to have
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White papersRaising the roof
Optimism that a resolution to the US debt ceiling crisis is on the cards helped markets this week. In Turkey, a second-round run-off will decide whether incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan extends his two decades in power.
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White papersA Tale of Two Indices
How an “optical illusion” might be making the S&P 500 look more expensive, and better-performing, than it really is.
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White papersPM Spotlight: A Mathematician Managing Munis
Nick Venditti, Senior Portfolio Manager of Municipal Fixed Income, has an exceptional background in municipal bond risk. Read this issue of PM Spotlight to learn about his approach to the asset class.
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White papersEuropean ABS: Sailing through banking-induced volatility?
At the beginning of the year, few investors would have predicted that collapses in the banking sector would trigger the next bout of volatility and lead to a significant shift in the trajectory and velocity of monetary policy. The failure of three US regional banks and the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS, which saw CS AT1 bonds fully written down, has led investors to re-evaluate the level of risk premia required to compensate for taking subordinated exposure particularly within the banking sector.
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White papersMarkets rally despite bank scare: Q1 roundup
Global stocks rose as investors welcomed signs from central bank officials in the U.S. and Europe that interest rates may not rise as much as previously expected. Lower inflation levels, combined with a crisis in the banking sector, prompted central bankers to consider adjusting monetary policy in the months ahead, leaving investors to speculate that there may be no additional rate increases this year.
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White papersWhat will you do with extra cash as the Fed changes course?
With the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes potentially over, this year is already shaping up to be a favorable one for fixed income returns following a dismal 2022. Investors who rushed for the exits last year, sending money market fund levels soaring to $5.2 trillion, may be wondering if it’s time to retrace their steps.
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White papersNew Pension Standards in Effect
New disclosures are in effect for pension plans. This marks a change for public plan sponsors in particular who should understand the new valuation measure, as we believe there are implications for pension bond portfolios.
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PodcastAll the Credit, Ep. 39: Down to the Wire
Daleep Singh examines the U.S. debt-ceiling crisis, potential outcomes, and probabilities.
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White papersUnderstanding China’s local government debt risk
Recent media reports on China’s debt-ridden Guizhou province pleading for Beijing to bail it out have raised market concerns about billions of dollars in local government debt which has been seen as ‘the canary in the coalmine’. The issue with impoverished Guizhou’s sizeable debt burden is illustrative of problems at China’s local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).
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White papersA paradigm shift for European debt
Private debt funds are filling the gap left by bank retrenchment, says Sandrine Richard, Head of private debt at Generali Investments Partners
