All Government Bonds articles – Page 6
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White papersThe what, why and how of the global fixed income and municipal markets
The evolving fixed income market environment: Key 2023 themes
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - July/August 2023
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 17 July 2023
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White papersThird Quarter 2023 Market Outlook
Despite a series of rolling crises, the global economy avoided the worst of potential outcomes in the first half of 2023. The reprieve reframes our outlook for the second half of the year and beyond.
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White papersAppraising Swiss bonds: what does price tell us?
Unlike equity prices, bond prices usually depend on elements beyond the fundamental valuation of the underlying entity. In fact, the price on its own typically says little.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2023
Central banks are finding it hard to finish the long journey toward inflation normalization, but we believe that policy rates are likely at or near their peaks—and could be maintained at elevated levels for some time. In an environment of slowing growth, restrictive monetary policy and rising idiosyncratic risk, we favor shorter durations, quality and a focus on security selection.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation: Q3 2023
As most central banks are nearing the end of the hiking cycle, JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI Index remained at a level consistent with a contraction. It was the ninth consecutive month below the neutral level of 50.
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White papersGlobal Risks 2023 – Mid-Year Review
Since our last global risks update in January, we believe risks have increased, on balance.
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White papersRate Reduction Bonds - Finding Value in an Esoteric Market
Born out of deregulation in the 1990s, rate reduction bonds (RRBs) are increasingly used by utilities to fund costs associated with natural disasters and help fund the transition to clean energy. Securitized by fees charged to a utility’s customers, they typically provide predictable cashflows and are of generally high credit quality.
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PodcastIndependence Day 2023: A Look Across U.S. Municipalities
Dennis Derby and Christine Collins discuss the upcoming Fourth of July holiday and specific reasons for investors to celebrate muni investing in the U.S.
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White papersDemystifying recent banking turmoil: What happened and what’s next?
Markets have calmed down considerably since the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse put the banking system in the spotlight. Is the worst really over or will other large banks come under pressure? Here, we explore the recent collapses and their causes, and share our views on whether, and which, banks may experience further trouble.
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White papersKeeping Your Balance as the Credit Cycle Turns
Striking the right balance between interest-rate and credit risk can be a good idea in the late stages of a credit cycle. We think it’s a particularly good idea in this credit cycle.
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White papersMid-year outlook 2023: macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 13 June 2023
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White papersMid-year outlook 2023: global themes
Central banks face a dilemma. Substantial monetary tightening has reduced headline inflation, but core measures are proving sticky, both in Europe and the United States. Even though inflation is still well above central bank targets, markets expect policy rates to be near their peaks. As central banks retain credibility, most measures of inflation expectations remain anchored.
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White papersWhy R-star may rise, and its implications for rates and policy
R-star is the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is at full employment. If the central bank sets its policy rate below R-star, then its monetary policy position is accommodative. The Fed currently believes R-star is about 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the Fed’s calculation of 2% a decade ago.
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White papersEcuador’s $650 million debt-for-nature swap targets Galápagos protection
The country has conducted the world’s largest such swap in what is likely to be a template for others to follow
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BlogWill the Fed’s Policy Bundle Morph into a Bungle?
The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold monetary policy steady was expected but its arrival carries a set of nuanced ramifications.
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White papersThe case for a higher-inflation regime
Financial markets are convinced headline inflation rates will fall sharply towards central bank targets over the next two years, with stable expectations in the medium to longer term.
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White papersWhy the next economic recovery may be stronger than expected
Three questions have weighed on investors’ minds for months: Will there be a recession? How bad will it be? And what comes next?
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White papersSeven questions for investors on the US debt ceiling
What is it? US debt ceiling is a statutory limit imposed on the total debt the government is allowed to have
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White papersRaising the roof
Optimism that a resolution to the US debt ceiling crisis is on the cards helped markets this week. In Turkey, a second-round run-off will decide whether incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan extends his two decades in power.
