All Government Bonds articles – Page 11
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White papersWhy R-star may rise, and its implications for rates and policy
R-star is the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is at full employment. If the central bank sets its policy rate below R-star, then its monetary policy position is accommodative. The Fed currently believes R-star is about 0.5%, which is significantly lower than the Fed’s calculation of 2% a decade ago.
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White papersThe case for a higher-inflation regime
Financial markets are convinced headline inflation rates will fall sharply towards central bank targets over the next two years, with stable expectations in the medium to longer term.
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White papersWhy the next economic recovery may be stronger than expected
Three questions have weighed on investors’ minds for months: Will there be a recession? How bad will it be? And what comes next?
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White papersSeven questions for investors on the US debt ceiling
What is it? US debt ceiling is a statutory limit imposed on the total debt the government is allowed to have
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White papersRaising the roof
Optimism that a resolution to the US debt ceiling crisis is on the cards helped markets this week. In Turkey, a second-round run-off will decide whether incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan extends his two decades in power.
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White papersA Tale of Two Indices
How an “optical illusion” might be making the S&P 500 look more expensive, and better-performing, than it really is.
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White papersEuropean ABS: Sailing through banking-induced volatility?
At the beginning of the year, few investors would have predicted that collapses in the banking sector would trigger the next bout of volatility and lead to a significant shift in the trajectory and velocity of monetary policy. The failure of three US regional banks and the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS, which saw CS AT1 bonds fully written down, has led investors to re-evaluate the level of risk premia required to compensate for taking subordinated exposure particularly within the banking sector.
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White papersMarkets rally despite bank scare: Q1 roundup
Global stocks rose as investors welcomed signs from central bank officials in the U.S. and Europe that interest rates may not rise as much as previously expected. Lower inflation levels, combined with a crisis in the banking sector, prompted central bankers to consider adjusting monetary policy in the months ahead, leaving investors to speculate that there may be no additional rate increases this year.
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White papersWhat will you do with extra cash as the Fed changes course?
With the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes potentially over, this year is already shaping up to be a favorable one for fixed income returns following a dismal 2022. Investors who rushed for the exits last year, sending money market fund levels soaring to $5.2 trillion, may be wondering if it’s time to retrace their steps.
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White papersUnderstanding China’s local government debt risk
Recent media reports on China’s debt-ridden Guizhou province pleading for Beijing to bail it out have raised market concerns about billions of dollars in local government debt which has been seen as ‘the canary in the coalmine’. The issue with impoverished Guizhou’s sizeable debt burden is illustrative of problems at China’s local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).
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White papersA paradigm shift for European debt
Private debt funds are filling the gap left by bank retrenchment, says Sandrine Richard, Head of private debt at Generali Investments Partners
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PodcastPutting Today’s Fixed Income Markets in Context
Global Head of Public Markets, Martin Horne discusses the current opportunities and risks in public fixed income markets and compares today’s macro backdrop with those faced in prior economic slowdowns.
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White papersA New ‘Impossible Trilemma’?
Can we lower government debt, sustain positive real rates and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy?
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White papersWhat the ‘next normal’ means for fixed income: reimagining core bonds
After three years of COVID, roller-coaster economies, inflation and central banks’ frantic fight against an uncertain future, it appears we may finally return to the world we used to know. The “new normal” – where rates are low, volatility subdued, and investors are willing to take on more risk – could yet return. But can it be so simple? After all the upheaval, are we really returning to the pre-COVID era?
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White papersThe More Things Change, Part II
Banking stresses may have tightened conditions enough for policymakers to pause their hiking cycles indefinitely.
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White papersPolitics, Deficits and the Debt Limit
We firmly believe that Congress will ultimately raise the debt limit, but it’s worth remembering that political drama affects markets.
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White papersEuropean leveraged loans: Defensive against rising rates and uncertainty?
2022 represented the end of the more than decade-long bull run and the impact for European loans was a dislocation to yields of c.10%. For long-term investors, we believe this provides an interesting investment opportunity for a senior secured defensive asset class with typically higher risk-adjusted returns than comparable credit risk asset classes.
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White papersWhat is a CLO?
CLOs provide an efficient, scalable way of investing in floating-rate loans while offering structural protection that has historically performed well through multiple credit cycles.
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White papersMacro Insights: Outlook for bonds brighter even as growth concerns linger
Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path.
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White papersFixed income rebounds on expectations inflation has peaked
As central banks moderate the pace of hikes and downturn concerns take the shine off riskier assets, bonds have seen renewed interest from investors.
