All Government Bonds articles – Page 13
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White papers
Strategic Relative Value – Q4 2019
A quarterly look at how macro events are driving relative value around the globe.
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White papers
Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019
Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.
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White papers
Flexible credit: strategies for all seasons
A flexible, all-weather approach to credit investing has risen in popularity during the past decade. In the first instalment of a five-part series, we look at how flexibility has helped credit investors capture income in a low-yield world and manage duration risk. In an uncertain and often volatile environment, we consider what a flexible approach can offer investors at this stage of the macroeconomic cycle, and throughout the next.
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White papers
Global Investment Views - September 2019
Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.
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White papers
Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019
We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed economies in 2020. It could subsequently decrease below potential in 2021 driven by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth should stay in positive territory.
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White papers
Seek High Yield Opportunities, but be aware of liquidity conditions
Speculative grade bonds have been among the major beneficiaries of the rapid turn of both Fed and ECB monetary policy stances to much more dovish positions. Lower rates for longer and more synchronised easing mean much lower funding costs and easier financial conditions for HY companies, which, as we know, are more sensitive than IG companies to the absolute levels of nominal and real rates.
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White papers
U.S. Loans: Challenged Market or Veiled Opportunity?
With loan and bond yields currently comparable, we believe—in a somewhat contrarian view to the market—there is a good argument for investing in loans, particularly in the U.S., where the economy appears to be marginally stronger than in Europe.
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White papers
Don't Panic - Just Yet - How to navigate the buoys and the rocks of today’s markets.
There’s a moment that sends a chill down the spine of any sailor when a rock suddenly appears, off wrong side of the bow. It doesn’t really matter whether the chart was wrong or the skipper missed a buoy—it’s undeniably a sign of trouble.
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White papers
On my mind: Yield curve hysteria
The inversion of the Treasury yield curve has recently gotten a lot of attention in the financial press as being a harbinger of economic malaise ahead.
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White papers
U.S. Loans: Challenged Market or Veiled Opportunity?
With loan and bond yields currently comparable, we believe—in a somewhat contrarian view to the market—there is a good argument for investing in loans, particularly in the U.S., where the economy appears to be marginally stronger than in Europe.
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White papers
Emerging Markets Investment Insight - Local bond benchmarks: Yield tilts and funding diversification
Low yields in developed fixed income markets combined with rising global issuance has made investments in local currency emerging markets (EM) bonds popular. In prior publications, we wrote about using factor decomposition to synthetically re- create exposure to the EM cash bonds through duration, currency, and credit derivative instruments. Extending this research, we investigate whether these factors can be used to enhance benchmark performance.Local bond benchmarks: Yield tilts and funding diversification
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White papers
Midyear Bond Outlook: Making Sense of Conflicting Signals
The first half of 2019 was kind to financial markets. Will the good times keep on rolling? In our view, that will depend on whether loosening monetary policy is still an effective way to boost growth.
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White papers
Update on drivers in Real Assets - Q2 2019
Fears of a potential global economic slowdown have put interest rate rises on hold. Longer duration assets (infrastructure debt and equity, real estate long income) should capture the higher capital gain if long-term rates fall but are quite insensitive to short-term rates. Despite higher leverage in infrastructure versus real ...
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White papers
Strategic Relative Value Q2 2019
A quarterly look at how macro events are driving relative value around the globe.
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White papers
Italy: A Long And Winding Road
Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.
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White papers
Core Matter: A Deeper Look into Financial Vulnerabilities
Almost ten years of record low interest rates have raised leverage in the non-financial sector as well as investors’ tolerance for riskier and less liquid instruments. As a result, the average quality of corporate debt has worsened. Credit risk has shifted away from banks to asset managers. Mutual funds’ ...
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White papers
Expectations Diverge
A broad-based stock rally in the early part of this year extended a notable divergence to the less optimistic views being reflected in government bond markets.