All Government Bonds articles – Page 8
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BlogYield is Destiny; Bonds are Back
Bond investors shouldn’t lose sight of the fact 2022’s historic increase in bond yields could lead to bond returns in the next decade that are two to three times higher than the prior decade.
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White papers2023 US muni bond outlook: A rough year in muni markets, yet reasons for optimism
While 2022 was a challenging year for the muni-bond market, 2023 is setting up for more positive momentum, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Municipal Bond Director Ben Barber. Read the team’s views on the year ahead.
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White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q4 2022
We reiterate the main driver affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments is a combination of sustained inflation, mounting recession fears and geopolitical developments. Price stability has become the paramount goal and even more complicated to reach, therefore CBs will make sure high inflation will not be entrenched in economic agents’ long-term expectations.
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White papersBonds that build back better
Some might argue that building a sustainable economy is a technological problem. It isn’t. The world is sufficiently stocked with greenhouse gas-reducing technologies such as renewable fuels, carbon capture and energy storage. What it lacks is capital.
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White papersTighter Conditions Begin to Squeeze the Economy
As the economy slows, an epic climb in short-dated rates and bond yields appears to have shocked investors into accepting the prospect of stickier inflation, but they still seem reluctant to price for substantially lower earnings.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 4Q 2022
Despite volatility, the basic storyline of inflation and the Federal Reserve should continue to drive market behavior. Over the months ahead, we anticipate continued tightening by the Fed and challenging European growth trends, with tail risks tied to the U.K., China weakness and policy overreach. A focus on shorter durations and quality, with opportunistic exposure to longer bonds and credit, merits consideration.
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White papersTLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess liquidity abundant, aiming at a smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
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White papersThe Nominal and the Real
What might be the playbook for a potential recession in which nominal GDP grows by 8%—and are investors only just recognizing that they need one?
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White papersClimate Transition: A World of Compromises (Part II)
Raise your eyes on the horizon—beyond the immediate central bank challenges, the lingering impact of COVID, and the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine—to consider three key climate-related issues that investors will wish they had known about 10 years from now.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2022
The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors should move towards neutrality on duration in the US and Europe, whereas in credit, they should focus on quality and stay cautious on higher-risk segments in Europe.
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White papersThe Rising Costs of a Drawn-Out War
Financial markets may not ebb and flow with major developments on the battlefield anymore, but we believe they do still need to come to terms with the war’s lasting inflationary impact.
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White papersMiddle Eastern Resilience: Improving Economic Activity and Defensive Characteristics
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been resilient despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation, according to Franklin Templeton’s Dino Kronfol and Salah Shamma. While Ukraine and Russia are remote from the region and linkages are not direct nor easy to identify, they give their views on how local economies are faring amid the volatility.
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White papersFloating to safety with senior AAA European asset-backed securities
Rising inflation and interest rates are eroding the value of cash and putting pressure on government and corporate bond yields. We believe investors can help towards protecting their portfolios by reallocating some of their cash holdings to potentially higher-yielding, defensive floating rate securities. Senior AAA European asset-backed securities (ABS) offer a sizeable yield premium for those willing to hold these positions for 6-12 months or longer.
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White papersWar, Inflation, and Markets
Investors appear to be refocusing on pre-war concerns about economic fundamentals—but finding that this horrific conflict has exacerbated them.
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White papersUncertainty Increases
As events in Ukraine see geopolitical tensions mount, the lack of an easy route to a stable resolution suggests that the impact of energy prices may persist. At the very least it compounds the uncertainty from an already challenging growth, inflation and policy mix. Policymakers seem to be walking a tightrope.
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White papersRussia-Ukraine: an uncertain outcome calls for higher focus on liquidity
At the core of the crisis, Russian assets have become almost un-investible, with dramatic price action as the market attempts to grapple with uncertainty. European equities have suffered, anticipating the negative consequences of the war on corporate earnings, while also commodities trended higher with double digit rise across many commodities. A flight to safety move has benefited government bonds, with the US treasury yield and the Bund yield trending lower.
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White papersThe myriad of challenges – and opportunities – facing fixed income in 2022
The question of whether inflation is likely to prove temporary or more persistent is just one of the challenges facing fixed income investors this year. Buying on the dips may no longer be sufficient as the focus of central banks switches to containing inflation rather than simply rallying to support financial markets.
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White papersGlobalization: “So Why Can’t You Export Haircuts?”
It’s the year 2032. Will planes still take us to far-off lands or will VR headsets transport us, could your hair stylist live on the other side of the planet?
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White papersManaging Duration in Multi-Asset Strategies? Be Dynamic
For most of the past decade, government bonds have contributed positive returns and a note of stability to multi-asset portfolios. But since late 2021, they’ve been much more volatile, as markets digest central banks’ transitions toward tighter monetary policy.
