All Government Bonds articles – Page 7
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White papersBond yields on the rise
Bond yields started the year with strong upward moves, and reached close to the highs seen in April last year. This latest upward trend, which has been evident from September amid Trump’s election campaign and his eventual victory, has been partly driven by resilience in the US economy.
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White papersWhat’s next for France
The French fiscal situation deteriorated post-Covid. Public debt as a percentage of GDP now surpasses levels in the Euro Area, including Germany and Spain, even if it remains lower than the ratio in the US (which exceeds 120%).
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersInvestment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?
Spreads on IG bonds have been tight for most of the past year. Are we finally going to see a widening out of spreads? Even though spreads have been unusually tight for a long time, we expect that spreads will remain tight until markets become convinced about either a recession or a soft landing before we see material and persistent spread widening.
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White papersThe extraordinary US cycle is becoming more balanced
“Progressively softer labour market conditions and positive inflation developments support gradual rate cuts, allowing the Fed to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.”
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White papersBond yields in Trump 2.0
“The Federal Reserve is continuing its cut-rate path, but it will be increasingly vigilant towards any inflation risks. We expect volatility in bond markets to persist.”
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White papersInsurance Fixed Income at the Top of the Cycle
How a fixed income portfolio split between core government bonds and high quality private assets can both augment yield and build strength for an economic slowdown.
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White papersUS soft landing on track
“Robust consumption and government spending have supported US economic activity recently, but we see a mild deceleration in growth amid a rebalancing in US labour markets.”
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White papersBeware of Buying the Dip in Bonds
Government bonds have sold off rapidly; here’s why we don’t think it’s time to buy back in.
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White papersCan Beijing do enough to maintain the rally?
The Chinese government has prioritised rebooting the country’s flagging economy and unveiled a dramatic stimulus package last month. But initial investor enthusiasm may be tapering off amid follow-up announcements that have been short on specifics.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook 4Q 2024
With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut, we anticipate broad easing by central banks over the next year across the developed world. However, some caution may be warranted on duration, as markets may be overly optimistic about the initial pace of reductions. Meanwhile still sturdy, if softening, economic conditions along with strong investor demand have contributed to narrow corporate credit spreads, reinforcing the value of a quality emphasis and drawing on yield and price opportunities wherever they emerge.
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White papersAll eyes on inflation
“We believe the Federal Reserve will weigh the inflation numbers in the context of the weakening labour markets. We expect the Fed to continue to ease monetary policy.”
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White papersChina: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
China’s recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer staples. While market sentiment has improved, the long-term impact will hinge on the actual scale and execution of fiscal policy. Investors are cautiously optimistic, but much depends on how effectively China targets its property sector and broader economy.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2024
Capital markets whipsawed between a weakening US labour market and hopes that the Fed would successfully steer the economy towards a soft landing. Markets are optimistically interpreting the latest policy action, which could potentially boost consumption and investment. The other narrative is that the Fed would not have implemented a big cut without having apprehensions on the economic front.
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White papersThe bullish case for European fixed income
Mauro Valle, Head of Fixed Income at Generali Asset Management, explains why he expects duration to maintain its bullish momentum for the final months of 2024, and why the short- to medium-term part of the yield curve should be a sweet spot for bond investors.
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White papersMacroeconomic and financial market forecasts - September 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 5 September 2024
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White papersECB cuts rates again this year
“Declining price pressures are leading central banks such as the ECB to reduce policy rates. This, coupled with uncertainty over economic growth, could potentially be supportive for European bonds.”
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White papersWhat does India’s benchmark inclusion mean for investors
Indian government bonds have been added to the global emerging market bond index, providing foreign investors access to India’s $1.3 trillion government bond market. The move could improve capital flows into the country, as well as stabilise yields.
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White papersCentral banks divergences on display
The Fed left interest rates unchanged in its latest policy meeting in July but acknowledged that price pressures are subsiding. This could encourage the Fed to reduce interest rates later this year. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) implemented its first rate cut since early 2020 on abating inflation in the UK. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised policy rates for the second time this year to control upward pressures on inflation.
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White papersThe case for bonds (as rates inch towards normalisation)
With the Fed expected to begin its easing cycle later this year, bond markets appear poised to generate income to a degree not seen since before the 2008-09 financial crisis.
