All Government Bonds articles – Page 2
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White papersECB strategy review: The investment implications
A cursory glance at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment shows no major changes to its last review four years earlier – something which should, in the main, comfort investors. However, a deeper dive into the document and the surrounding macroeconomic backdrop reveals it to be - in our view at least - an ECB strategy policy overhaul, rather than a technical fine-tuning exercise.
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White papersECB treads cautiously
The ECB kept policy rates unchanged at its September meeting, emphasising a data-dependent approach before deciding on further rate cuts.
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White papersBond markets fret over rising budget deficits
An uncertain economic backdrop continues to push up long-term government bond yields in comparison to short-term rates.
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White papersUK long-dated yields at 25-year highs
Yields on long-term government bonds in developed markets have been rising this year. In the UK, 30-year gilt yields reached their highest level since 1998, driven by inflation worries and concerns over government debt — though the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains below that of some large European countries. Structural changes, such as fewer pension scheme buyers, add further complexity.
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White papersWhat happens if US debt becomes unsustainable?
Is the US national debt growing out of control? Predicting when or if a tipping point may be reached is difficult (or impossible), but the country faces growing fiscal challenges as its soaring interest burden is heightening concerns about long-term debt sustainability.
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White papersThe future of France’s budget
French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced that he would request a vote of confidence on September 8, before the budget discussion that is set to begin on October 1, and following the presentation of the budget orientations in mid-July.
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PodcastThe Muni Opportunity
Municipal bonds have been one of the more active corners of the fixed income market this year. Near-record levels of new issuance have outpaced demand amid uncertainties stemming from shifts in the policy landscape.
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VideoPremier Miton Fixed Income update August 2024
Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income, explores the macro forces shaping global bond markets. Highlighting sticky inflation in the US, labour driven inflation pressures in the UK, and Europe’s rising fiscal stimulus from military and infrastructure spending.
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White papersBack to school: campus capital backed by muni bonds
Higher education institutions face unprecedented challenges from demographic shifts, federal scrutiny and infrastructure needs. Municipal bonds provide essential financing that enables these institutions to build state-of-the-art facilities, maintain competitive campuses and secure operational liquidity.
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White papersChina Bonds: Diversification potential beyond the Dollar
Strategic Allocation in a Shifting Global Paradigm: UBS (Lux) Bond SICAV – China Fixed Income (RMB)
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White papersWhy US Dollar-Based Bond Investors Should Look to Europe
As investors re-evaluate their allocations to US assets, we think they should consider euro-denominated bonds.
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White papersA 20,000-Foot Perspective: Can Bonds and Equities Both be Right?
The combination of stagflation concerns from macro data and robust corporate earnings in the last week have helped bolster the case for a striking gap between fixed income and equity premia persisting, highlighting the complex and finely balanced growth outlook.
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PodcastTalking Heads – Setting a course for investing in the rest of 2025
With the second half of the year now well underway, what are the prospects for the major economies and financial markets as tariffs remain very much in the headlines? Is an overweight position in equities versus bonds still appropriate, including a preference for US equities, and particularly technology stocks?
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White papersFederal policy shifts reshape the municipal bond landscape
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act introduces sweeping changes to municipal credit across multiple sectors. Despite Medicaid reforms, education funding cuts and energy policy shifts, municipal issuers remain resilient with strong fundamentals, revenue growth and historically high reserves.
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White papersThe Fed navigates economic crosscurrents amid tariffs
The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its target policy rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its July meeting, acknowledging the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and tariff-related distortions. While headline GDP figures have oscillated dramatically, underlying growth continues its gradual deceleration during persistent uncertainty.
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White papersThe need for stronger US fiscal policy
US Treasury bonds have long provided domestic and foreign investors a modest yield that was assumed to be risk free. Yields (and thus prices) could be volatile, but the risk of the US government defaulting on its debt was regarded as so low that US Treasury yields became a benchmark for all other government and corporate debt: If the US government had zero risk of default, the default risk of any other borrower could be simply measured by looking at the additional yield it offered over a comparable Treasury security.
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White papersSummer Twists: Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Treasuries
As expected, the 2017 tax cuts are being made permanent. Additional cuts are also being introduced, including an exemption on tips and overtime, deductions for seniors, and an increase in the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 (this allows households, in particular, to deduct their property taxes from their federal income tax).
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White papersThe Hidden Edge: Why Granular European Assets Hold the Key to Outperformance
In today’s complex and fragmented European real estate market, opportunities are available if you are able to recognise them and are willing to do the hard work. But to see and recognise them you need to have your “boots on the ground,” your “hands on the data,” and your “head in the realities of the local market’s engine rooms.” In Germany, particularly, I’ve come to see that the greatest value is not just found but created, through rigorous granular origination and disciplined active asset management. That is the strategy we’ve embraced at Arrow Global, and it’s one I believe that offers the best chances of value creation.
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White papersEnvisioning a post-Powell Fed: What comes next?
With characteristic directness, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction in recent weeks with the job performance of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Serious or not, this kind of talk has investors speculating on what’s next for the US central bank and what a changing of the guard could mean for the economy and markets — whether that change comes at the end of Powell’s term as chair in May 2026 or sooner.
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White papersEuropean Bonds – Still More to Give
Benign inflation, a dovish central bank and healthy yields have helped boost the global attraction of European government bond and credit markets. With further monetary easing expected, European fixed income continues to look selectively compelling.
